Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling
Kilian, Lutz (2020-12-21)
A series of recent articles has called into question the validity of VAR models of the global market for crude oil. These studies seek to replace existing oil market models by structural VAR models of their own based on different data, different identifying assumptions, and a different econometric approach. Their main aim has been to revise the consensus in the literature that oil demand shocks are a more important determinant of oil price fluctuations than oil supply shocks. Substantial progress has been made in recent years in sorting out the pros and cons of the underlying econometric ...
Working Papers , Paper 1907

Journal Article
What Could Resurging U.S. Energy Production Mean for the U.S. Trade Deficit?
Nie, Jun; Cakir Melek, Nida (2018-03-07)
Macro Bulletin

Discussion Paper
Same Shock, Different Roads? A K‑Shaped Pattern at the Pump
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pham, Thu; Pierce, Beckett; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2026-05-06)
In March 2026, energy prices surged to a four-year high, driven by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we use the new consumer spending module of the Economic Heterogeneity Indicators to analyze recent changes in nominal and real gas consumption across different income groups. We find that households had very different experiences with gasoline spending: in March, high-income households increased nominal spending the most and kept real consumption essentially unchanged, while low-income households ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20260506

Journal Article
Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics
Bennett, Julie; Owyang, Michael T.; Vermann, E. Katarina (2021-07-01)
A large literature has argued that gasoline prices respond more rapidly to increases in oil prices than to decreases in oil prices. Moreover, some of this literature has found heterogeneous asymmetry in gas price responses across cities. Here, we reconsider the causes of heterogeneous asymmetric pass-through. Consistent with the previous literature, we find heterogeneity in the magnitudes of asymmetric pass-through across cities. We also find a large number of cities that exhibit no asymmetries. We then examine whether heterogeneous asymmetry results from city-level differences in (i) the ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 3 , Pages 289-314

Working Paper
The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices
Kilian, Lutz; Rapson, David; Schipper, Burkhard (2024-03-26)
This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals crude in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted much of its crude oil exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power. We also ...
Working Papers , Paper 2401

Journal Article
The Response of U.S. Investment to Oil Price Shocks: Does the Shale Boom Matter?
Cakir Melek, Nida (2018-10)
After an unprecedented decline from 2014 to 2016, the real price of oil more than doubled, renewing interest in the effects of oil price fluctuations on the U.S. economy. The oil sector has become increasingly important to the U.S. economy over the past decade, and total U.S. business fixed investment appears to have followed oil investment?s pattern in recent years. This positive correlation between oil prices and U.S. investment growth may be related to the surge in U.S. oil production known as the shale boom. {{p}} Nida ak?r Melek explores the effect of unexpected oil price changes (or ...
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 39-61

Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2023-01-06)
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2301

Working Paper
Exporting and Pollution Abatement Expenditure: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
Roy, Jayjit; Banerjee, Soumendra N.; Yasar, Mahmut (2020-07-17)
The relevance of analyzing whether exporting firms engage in greater pollution abatement cannot be overemphasized. For instance, the question relates to the possibility of export promotion policies being environmentally beneficial. In fact, the issue is especially relevant for developing countries typically characterized by ineffective environmental regulation. However, despite the significance of the topic, the extant literature examining the environmental consequences of firm-level trade is skewed toward developed countries. Moreover, the existing contributions rarely attend to concerns ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 393

Journal Article
Drilling Productivity in the United States: What Lies Beneath
Brown, Jason; Rodziewicz, David; Tousey, Colton (2019-05-22)
We construct new measures of drilling productivity and find that productivity increased sixfold from the mid-2000s to early 2017. Gains in below-ground efficiency?the number of barrels produced per foot of drilled wells?have largely driven this increase in overall productivity. The large oil price declines during the Great Recession and from 2014 to 2016 also played a role. However, further large increases in productivity are unlikely absent additional improvements in technology or a subsequent large downturn in oil prices.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 22, 2019 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Pollution Taxes and Clean Subsidies in an Open Economy
Kay, Owen (2025-08-18)
In open economies, the effectiveness of carbon taxes is diminished by “pollution leakage,” where some polluting activity shifts abroad because of the tax. This paper shows that the same conditions that lead to pollution leakage enhance the efficacy of clean subsidies. As a result, the optimal policy in an open economy combines a pollution tax and a clean subsidy, the balance of which depends on the leakage rate. Furthermore, efficient policy sets the sum of the tax and subsidy rates, a measure of policy ambition, equal to the marginal damages from pollution, and does not depend on the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2533

show more (35)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords