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Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil
This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil’s Bolsa Familia transfer program leads to a large and persistent increase in relative state-level GDP, formal employment, and informal employment. A state receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grows 2.2% faster in the first year, with R$100,000 of extra transfers generating five formal-equivalent jobs, half of which are informal. Consistent with a demand-side mechanism, the effects are concentrated in ...
Working Paper
Arepas are not Tacos: On the Labor Markets of Latin America
This paper examines labor markets across Latin American countries, revealing substantial differences in unemployment, informality, and worker transitions. Using surveys from eight countries, we construct comparable statistics on employment stocks and mobility patterns. Notable cross-country differences emerge, with economies mostly clustered into high unemployment-low informality or low unemployment-high informality groups. Transition probabilities and directional flows also vary significantly. We highlight the importance of using country-specific parameters when simulating labor market and ...
Working Paper
Argentina’s “Missing Capital” Puzzle and Limited Commitment Constraints
Capital accumulation in Argentina was slow in the 1990s, despite high total factor productivity (TFP) growth and low international interest rates. A possible explanation for the ?missing capital? is that foreign investors were reluctant to take advantage of the high returns to investment seemingly offered by that small open economy under such favorable conditions, on the grounds that previous historical developments had led them to perceive Argentina as a country prone to external debt ?opportunistic defaults.? The paper examines this conjecture from the perspective of an optimal contract ...