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Working Paper
Productivity Slowdown: Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance
Li, Huiyu; Boppart, Timo (2021-08-22)
Growth accounting suggests that the bulk of the post-2004 slowdown in output growth in the U.S. is attributed to a residual called TFP. In this paper we provide a tractable accounting framework with firm heterogeneity to link this residual to innovations, markup dispersion, and potential measurement errors. Theories of creative destruction offer rich testable predictions of how the quality upgrading of products, the process efficiency of different firms, and markup dispersion in the market interact and therefore constitute a key approach to shed light on the slowdown in TFP growth. Surveying ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-21

Report
The Great Recession, entrepreneurship, and productivity performance
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-01)
In recent years, it is argued, the level of entrepreneurial activity in the United States has declined, causing concern because of its potential macroeconomic implications. In particular, it is feared that a lower rate of firm creation may be associated with lower productivity growth and, hence, lower economic growth in the coming years. This paper studies the issue, focusing on the dynamics of entrepreneurship and productivity around the time of the Great Recession. The author looks first at the recent evolution of alternative measures of entrepreneurship and of productivity, and then ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-8

Journal Article
Domestic Innovation and International Technology Diffusion as Sources of Comparative Advantage
Zhu, Heting; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2018)
Productivity differences across countries determine patterns of international trade?hence, comparative advantage. We use a multi-industry model of international trade to estimate a measure of industry productivity. We then quantify the effect that domestic innovation and technology diffusion have in explaining differences in productivity across countries and industries. Consistent with standard growth theories, we find the following: (i) Higher-income countries benefit more from domestic innovation than lower-income countries, whereas lower-income countries benefit more from technology ...
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 4

Working Paper
International Technology Licensing, Intellectual Property Rights, and Tax Havens
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2022-01-31)
This paper investigates the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 41 countries during 1996-2012. A multi-country model of innovation and international technology licensing yields a dynamic structural gravity equation for royalty payments as a function of fundamentals, including: (i) imperfect intellectual property protection and (ii) tax havens. The gravity equation is estimated using nonlinear methods. The model’s fundamentals account for 56% of the variation in royalty payments. Counterfactual analysis sheds light on the role of intellectual property rights ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-031

Journal Article
Relative Income Traps
Wen, Yi; Arias, Maria A. (2016)
Despite economic growth in the post-World War II period, few developing countries have been able to catch up to the income levels in the United States or other advanced economies. Such countries remain trapped at a relative low- or middle-income level. In this article, the authors redefine the concept of income traps as situations in which income levels relative to the United States remain constantly low and with no clear sign of convergence. This approach allows them to study the issue of economic convergence (or lack of it) directly. The authors describe evidence pointing to the existence ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 1 , Pages 41-60

Working Paper
The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Hobijn, Bart; Bosler, Canyon (2016-07-11)
Over the past 15 years, labor-quality growth has been very strong?defying nearly all earlier projections?and has added around 0.5 percentage points to an otherwise modest U.S. productivity picture. Going forward, labor quality is likely to add considerably less and may even be a drag on productivity growth in the medium term. Using a variety of methods, we project that potential labor-quality growth in the longer run (7 to 10 years out) is likely to fall in the range of 0.1 to 0.25 percent per year. In the medium term, labor-quality growth could be lower or even negative, should employment ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-14

Working Paper
Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity : Shocks vs. Responsiveness
Decker, Ryan A.; Haltiwanger, John; Jarmin, Ron S.; Miranda, Javier (2018-02-02)
The pace of job reallocation has declined in all U.S. sectors since 2000. In standard models, aggregate job reallocation depends on (a) the dispersion of idiosyncratic productivity shocks faced by businesses and (b) the marginal responsiveness of businesses to those shocks. Using several novel empirical facts from business microdata, we infer that the pervasive post-2000 decline in reallocation reflects weaker responsiveness in a manner consistent with rising adjustment frictions and not lower dispersion of shocks. The within-industry dispersion of TFP and output per worker has risen, while ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-007

Working Paper
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel (2024-11-21)
Based on a narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in R&D appropriations for five major federal agencies, we find that an increase in nondefense R&D appropriations leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity and higher business-sector productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV methodology of Lewis and Mertens (2023) and obtain implied returns of 140 to 210 percent over the postwar period. The estimates indicate that government-funded R&D accounts for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2305

Working Paper
Tax Heterogeneity and Misallocation
Kaymak, Barış; Schott, Immo (2023-12-19)
Companies face different effective marginal tax rates on their income. This can be detrimental to allocative efficiency unless taxes offset other distortions in the economy. This paper estimates the effect of tax rate heterogeneity on aggregate productivity in distorted economies with multiple frictions. Using firm-level balance-sheet data and estimates of marginal tax rates, we find that tax heterogeneity reduces total factor productivity by about 3 percent. Our findings highlight the positive correlation between marginal tax rates and other distortions to capital and especially labor. This ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-33

Report
Newer need not be better: evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators using nighttime lights
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. (2016-06-01)
Nighttime lights data are a measure of economic activity whose measurement error is plausibly independent of the errors of most conventional indicators. Therefore, we can use nighttime lights as an independent benchmark to assess existing measures of economic activity (Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin 2016). We employ this insight to find out which vintages of the Penn World Tables (PWT) and of the World Development Indicators (WDI) better estimate true income per capita. We find that revisions of the PWT do not necessarily dominate their predecessors in terms of explaining nighttime lights (and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 778

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