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Working Paper
Intellectual Property Rights, Technology Transfer and International Trade
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2021-07-20)
I study the short- and long-term effects of regional trade agreements (RTA) with strict intellectual property (IP) provisions. An empirical analysis using gravity methods suggests that regions signing these agreements share more technology in the form of technology licensing following the year of enforcement. I set up a multi-country model with endogenous productivity through innovation and adoption to quantify the effect of such agreements on innovation, growth and welfare. Adopters pay royalties to innovators for the use of their technology; the model allows for various degrees of IP rights ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-010

Working Paper
Identifying Structural VARs with a Proxy Variable and a Test for a Weak Proxy
Lunsford, Kurt Graden (2015-12-04)
This paper develops a simple estimator to identify structural shocks in vector autoregressions (VARs) by using a proxy variable that is correlated with the structural shock of interest but uncorrelated with other structural shocks. When the proxy variable is weak, modeled as local to zero, the estimator is inconsistent and converges to a distribution. This limiting distribution is characterized, and the estimator is shown to be asymptotically biased when the proxy variable is weak. The F statistic from the projection of the proxy variable onto the VAR errors can be used to test for a weak ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1528

Working Paper
Rebuilding after Disaster Strikes: How Local Lenders Aid in the Recovery
Cortes, Kristle Romero (2014-11-12)
Using detailed employment data on firm age and size, I show that the presence of local finance improves job retention and creation at young and small firms. I use natural disasters and regulatory guidance to disentangle the effects of credit supply and demand. I find that an additional standard deviation of local finance offsets the negative effects of the disaster and can lead to 1 to 2% higher employment growth at either young or small firms. Banks increase lending but are not borrowing against future lending, nor do they experience changes in default rates. These findings suggest that ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1428

Working Paper
International Technology Licensing, Intellectual Property Rights, and Tax Havens
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2021-07-05)
This paper investigates the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 61 countries during 1995-2012. A multi-country model of innovation and diffusion with international technology licensing yields a structural gravity equation for royalty payments as a function of fundamentals. The gravity equation is estimated using nonlinear methods. The model’s fundamentals account for 45% of the variation in royalty payments. Other factors such as imperfect IPR protection and tax havens account for a substantial fraction of the unexplained variation. A back-of-the-envelope ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-031

Working Paper
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
Inklaar, Robert; Fernald, John G. (2020-06-12)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-22

Journal Article
Productivity developments abroad
Marquez, Jaime R.; Gust, Christopher J. (2000-10)
This article reviews recent productivity trends in foreign industrial countries. The focus of the analysis is on whether productivity abroad has accelerated to an extent comparable to that observed in the United States. The authors find that foreign labor productivity, unlike that of the United States, has not accelerated in the latter half of the 1990s and discuss the role played by information technology in influencing foreign productivity trends as well as cyclical and methodological factors that are important in the analysis of these trends.
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 86 , Issue Oct , Pages 665-681

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Ruhl, Kim J.; Asturias, Jose; Hur, Sewon (2019-02-01)
Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (FHK) (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP growth. Studies of other countries confirm this empirical relationship. To analyze this relationship, we develop a simple model of firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992) in which there are analytical expressions for the FHK decomposition. When we introduce reforms that reduce entry costs or reduce barriers to technology adoption ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-03

Report
Newer need not be better: evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators using nighttime lights
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. (2016-06-01)
Nighttime lights data are a measure of economic activity whose measurement error is plausibly independent of the errors of most conventional indicators. Therefore, we can use nighttime lights as an independent benchmark to assess existing measures of economic activity (Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin 2016). We employ this insight to find out which vintages of the Penn World Tables (PWT) and of the World Development Indicators (WDI) better estimate true income per capita. We find that revisions of the PWT do not necessarily dominate their predecessors in terms of explaining nighttime lights (and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 778

Working Paper
Misallocation and Credit Market Constraints: the Role of Long-Term Financing
Karabarbounis, Marios; Macnamara, Patrick (2019-01-16)
We measure aggregate productivity loss due to credit market constraints in a model with endogenous borrowing constraints, long-duration bonds, and costly equity payouts. Due to long-duration bonds, the model generates a realistic distribution of credit spreads. We structurally estimate our model using firm-level data on credit spreads from Thomson Reuters Bond Security Data and balance sheet data from Compustat. Credit market constraints increase aggregate productivity by 0.4% through their effect on the credit spread distribution. However, credit market constraints also interact with costly ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-1

Working Paper
Every Cloud has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis
Dias, Daniel A.; Marques, Carlos Robalo (2019-06-05)
Using firm-level data, this paper shows that the Portuguese financial crisis was a period of intensified productivity-enhancing reallocation. Aggregate productivity gains, both in manufacturing and services, came from relatively higher contributions of entering and exiting firms and from reallocation of resources between surviving firms. At the microlevel, the crisis reduced the probability of survival for high- and low-productivity firms, but it hit low-productivity firms disproportionately harder. We also found important heterogeneous effects across economic sectors regarding input ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1250

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