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Working Paper
Intellectual Property Rights, Technology Transfer and International Trade
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2021-07-20)
I study the short- and long-term effects of regional trade agreements (RTA) with strict intellectual property (IP) provisions. An empirical analysis using gravity methods suggests that regions signing these agreements share more technology in the form of technology licensing following the year of enforcement. I set up a multi-country model with endogenous productivity through innovation and adoption to quantify the effect of such agreements on innovation, growth and welfare. Adopters pay royalties to innovators for the use of their technology; the model allows for various degrees of IP rights ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-010

Working Paper
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
Meyer, Brent; Altig, David E.; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria; Mihaylov, Emil (2021-01-15)
We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-2

Working Paper
Dotcom Extreme Underpricing
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; Pinheiro, Roberto; de Carvalho, Antonio Gledson (2017-07-25)
We conjecture that the Dotcom abnormal underpricing resulted from the emergence a large cohort of firms racing for market leadership/survivorship. Fundamentals pricing at the IPO was part of their strategy. Consistent with our conjecture, firms? strategic goals and characteristics fully explain the abnormal underpricing. Contrary to alternatives explanations, underpricing was not associated with top underwriting; there was no deterioration of issuers? quality; and top underwriters and analysts became more selective.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1714

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Inokuma, Hiroshi; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the shape of a business's productivity life-cycle profile determines the direction of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. Japan's expected decline in population ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Working Paper
Innovation, Diffusion, and Trade: Theory and Measurement
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2014-05-01)
I develop a multicountry-model in which economic growth is driven mainly by domestic innovation and the adoption of foreign technologies embodied in traded intermediate goods. Fitting the model to data on innovation, output per capita, and trade in varieties for the period 1996-2007, I estimate the costs of both domestic innovation and adopting foreign innovations, and then decompose the sources of economic growth around the world. I find that the adoption channel has been especially important in developing countries, and accounts for about 65% of their ?embodied? growth. Developed countries ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-42

Working Paper
Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-05-07)
The COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about the future of work. The pandemic may become recurrent, necessitating repeated adoptions of social distancing measures (voluntary or mandatory), creating substantial uncertainty about worker productivity. But robots are not susceptible to the virus. Thus, pandemic-induced job uncertainty may boost the incentive for automation. However, elevated uncertainty also reduces aggregate demand and reduces the value of new investment in automation. We assess the importance of automation in driving business cycle dynamics following an increase in job ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-19

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-08-25)
A slowdown in population growth causes a decline in business dynamism by increasing the share of old businesses. But how does it affect productivity growth? We answer this question by extending a standard firm dynamics model to include endogenous productivity growth. Theoretically, the growth rate of the size of surviving old businesses is a “sufficient statistic" for determining the direction and magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Quantitatively, this effect is significant across balanced growth paths for the United States and Japan. TFP growth in the United States ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Working Paper
Markets, Externalities, and the Dynamic Gains of Openness
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander (2016-10-01)
Inflows of foreign knowledge are the key for developing countries to catch up with the world technology frontier. In this paper, I construct a simple tractable model to analyze (a) the incentives of foreign firms to bring their know-how to a developing country and (b) the incentives of domestic firms to invest in their own know-how, given the exposure to foreign ideas and competition. The model embeds two diffusion mechanisms typically considered separately in the literature: externalities and markets. The dynamic gains of openness can be substantial under either mechanism, but their relative ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-23

Speech
The importance of addressing cybersecurity risks in the financial sector
Dahlgren, Sarah J. (2015-03-24)
Remarks at the OpRisk North America Annual Conference, New York City.
Speech , Paper 160

Working Paper
The Increasing Deflationary Influence of Consumer Digital Access Services
Byrne, David M.; Corrado, Carol (2020-02-26)
Consumer digital access services—internet, mobile phone, cable TV, and streaming—accounted for over 2 percent of U.S. household consumption in 2018. We construct prices for these services using direct measures of volume (data transmitted, talk time, and hours of programming). Our price index fell 12 percent per year from 1988 to 2018 while official prices moved up modestly. Using our digital services index, we estimate total personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices have risen nearly 1/2 percentage point slower than the official index since 2008. Importantly, the spread between ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-021

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