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Working Paper
Surveying Business Uncertainty
Meyer, Brent; Altig, David E.; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria (2020-02-01)
We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation is to let survey respondents freely select support points and probabilities in five-point distributions over future sales growth, employment, and investment. In terms of data collection, we develop and field a new monthly panel Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU). The SBU began in 2014 and now covers about 1,750 firms drawn from all 50 states, every major nonfarm industry, and a range of firm sizes. We find ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-13

Working Paper
Workplace Automation and Corporate Liquidity Policy
Wang, Jessie Jiaxu (2023-04-18)
Using an occupational probability of computerization, we measure a firmâ€™s ability to replace labor with automated capital. Our evidence suggests that the potential to automate a workforce enhances operating flexibility, allowing firms to hold less precautionary cash. To provide evidence for this mechanism, we exploit the 2011â€“2012 Thailand hard drive crisis as an exogenous shock to the cost of automation. In addition, the negative relation between prospective automation and cash holdings is greater for firms with a lower expected cost of worker displacement and greater ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-023

Journal Article
Digital Currency, Digital Payments, and the 'Last Mile' to the Unbanked
Shy, Oz (2021-08-02)
Digital forms of payment are either not accessible or highly costly for unbanked consumers. This is because these forms of payment must be "funded" by some source of money, such as cash or a bank account. That creates the "last-mile" problem for the unbanked. This article examines various solutions for the funding problem that have been proposed in the literature, by regulators, and in bills submitted to Congress.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 9 , Pages 9

Working Paper
What Drives International technology Diffusion? A Gravity Approach
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2019-11-04)
We derive a theory-based gravity-type equation that determines the main drivers of international technology diffusion under perfect enforcement of intellectual property rights. We estimate the gravity equation using bilateral royalty payments data for a sample of 53 countries and the period 1995-2012 to infer the amount of technology diffusion predicted by the model. We then analyze differences between the model and the data, and find that they are mainly driven by characteristics of the importing-technology country that are not captured by the model. We explore the role of three channels: ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-31

Working Paper
Reshoring, Automation, and Labor Markets Under Trade Uncertainty
Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng (2024-05-05)
We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentive for firms to reduce exposures to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor productivity and facilitates reshoring, but it can also displace jobs. Furthermore, automation poses a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-16

Working Paper
The Increasing Deflationary Influence of Consumer Digital Access Services
Byrne, David M.; Corrado, Carol (2020-02-26)
Consumer digital access services—internet, mobile phone, cable TV, and streaming—accounted for over 2 percent of U.S. household consumption in 2018. We construct prices for these services using direct measures of volume (data transmitted, talk time, and hours of programming). Our price index fell 12 percent per year from 1988 to 2018 while official prices moved up modestly. Using our digital services index, we estimate total personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices have risen nearly 1/2 percentage point slower than the official index since 2008. Importantly, the spread between ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-021

Working Paper
The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David (2024-09-20)
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from the first nationally representative U.S. survey of generative AI adoption at work and at home. In August 2024, 39 percent of the U.S. population age 18-64 used generative AI. More than 24 percent of workers used it at least once in the week prior to being surveyed, and nearly one in nine used it every workday. Historical data on usage and mass-market product launches suggest that U.S. adoption of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-027

Working Paper
The Geography of Business Dynamism and Skill Biased Technical Change
Rubinton, Hannah (2021-02-26)
This paper seeks to explain several key components of the growing regional disparities in the U.S. since 1980: big cities saw a larger increase in the relative wages and relative supply of skilled workers, and a smaller decline in business dynamism. These trends can be explained by differences across cities in the extent to which firms adopt new skill-biased technologies. With the introduction of a new skill-biased, high fixed cost but low marginal cost technology, firms endogenously adopt more in big cities, cities that offer abundant amenities for high-skilled workers and cities that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-020

Working Paper
International Technology Licensing, Intellectual Property Rights, and Tax Havens
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2023-03-31)
This paper investigates the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 50 countries during 1996-2012. A multi-country model of innovation and international technology licensing yields a dynamic structural gravity equation for royalty payments as a function of fundamentals, including imperfect intellectual property protection and differences in corporate taxation. The gravity equation is estimated with nonlinear methods. The model's fundamentals account for about 60% of the variation in royalty payments. A quantitative analysis sheds light on the impact of global ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-031

Working Paper
Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development
LaBelle, Jesse; Martinez-Zarzoso, Immaculada; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Yotov, Yoto (2023-12)
We build a stylized model that captures the relationships between cross-border patenting, globalization, and development. Our theory delivers a gravity equation for cross-border patents. To test the model’s predictions, we compile a new dataset that tracks patents within and between countries and industries, for 1980-2019. The econometric analysis reveals a strong, positive impact of policy and globalization on cross-border patent flows, especially from North to South. A counterfactual welfare analysis suggests that the increase in patent flows from North to South has benefited both ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-031

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