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Journal Article
Fertility and Internal Migration
Liao, Pei-Ju; Yip, Chong K.; Wang, Ping; Wang, Yin-Chi (2020-10-22)
While there is a renewed literature connecting internal migration to various issues related to structural transformation such as urban labor and housing markets, the relationship between internal migration and demographic transition is much under-studied despite its importance in the process of economic development. Our article fills this knowledge gap. By constructing a simple dynamic framework in which fertility and rural-urban migration decisions are both determined, we show that more-rapid urban productivity advancement can lead to a positive relationship between migration and fertility. ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 4 , Pages 429-445

Working Paper
Should the government sell you goods? Evidence from the milk market in Mexico
Jimenez-Hernandez, Diego; Seira, Enrique (2022-04-19)
Governments spend considerable resources providing goods directly. We show that such behavior may increase welfare when private suppliers have market power. We do this by studying the staggered rollout of hundreds of government milk “ration stores” in Mexico using a proprietary panel of household food purchases. The rollout lowered the price per liter of privately supplied milk by 2.4% and increased household consumption. To compare directprovision with budget-neutral alternatives, we develop and estimate an equilibrium model of the market that accounts for quality differences. Direct ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-19

Working Paper
The Effect of Export Market Access on Labor Market Power: Firm-level Evidence from Vietnam
Hoang, Trang T.; Mitra, Devashish; Pham, Hoang (2024-08-09)
We examine the impact of an export market expansion created by the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) on labor market competition among Vietnamese manufacturing firms. We measure distortionary wedges between equilibrium marginal revenue products of labor (MRPL) and wages nonparametrically and find that the median firm pays workers 59% of their MRPL. The BTA permanently decreases labor market distortion in manufacturing by 3.4%, mainly for domestic private firms. The median distortion is 26% higher for women than men, and the decline in distortion for women drives the overall ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1394

Working Paper
College Access and Attendance Patterns: A Long-Run View
Herrington, Christopher; Hendricks, Lutz; Schoellman, Todd (2018-07-02)
We harmonize the results of 42 different data sets and studies dating back to the early 20th century to construct a time series of college attendance patterns for the United States. We find an important reversal around the time of World War II: before that time, family characteristics such as income were the better predictor of college attendance; afterwards, academic ability was the better predictor. We construct a model of college choice that can explain this reversal. The model's central mechanism is an exogenous rise in the demand for college that leads better colleges to become ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 10

Working Paper
Internal Migration in the United States: A Comparative Assessment of the Utility of the Consumer Credit Panel
Whitaker, Stephan; Johnson, Janna; DeWaard, Jack (2018-03-23)
This paper demonstrates that credit bureau data, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax (CCP), can be used to study internal migration in the United States. It is comparable to, and in some ways superior to, the standard data used to study migration, including the American Community Survey (ACS), the Current Population Survey (CPS), and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) county-to-county migration data. CCP-based estimates of migration intensity, connectivity, and spatial focusing are similar to estimates derived from the ACS, CPS, and IRS data. The CCP can ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1804

Working Paper
Of Cities and Slums
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Torres de Mello Pereira, Luciene; Cavalcanti Ferreira, Pedro (2016-10-01)
The emergence of slums is a common feature in a country's path towards urbanization, structural transformation and development. Based on salient micro and macro evidence of Brazilian labor, housing and education markets, we construct a simple model to examine the conditions for slums to emerge. We then use the model to examine whether slums are barriers or stepping stones for lower skilled households and for the development of the country as a whole. We calibrate our model to explore the dynamic interaction between skill formation, income inequality and structural transformation with the rise ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-22

How Is the Challenge of Finding Childcare Affecting Labor Force Participation? Perspectives from Employers Across the Seventh District
Longworth, Susan; Walstrum, Thomas; Lavelle, Martin (2024-02)
Through the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) and during roundtable discussions with business, nonprofit, and government leaders, the Chicago Fed asked employers from a variety of sectors for their perspectives on how childcare access has affected labor force availability.1 These survey and roundtable findings contribute to the Chicago Fed’s Spotlight on Childcare—an effort to increase our understanding of how the lack of access to childcare impedes labor force participation in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In this article, we summarize the responses from over 100 ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Working Paper
The Selection Effects of Part-Time Work: Experimental Evidence from a Large-Scale Recruitment Drive
Kim, Hyunseob; Bryant Kim, Hyuncheol; Zhu, John (2022-10-25)
We implement a field experiment to examine how part-time work attracts applicants with different quality and productivity levels than full-time work. In a large-scale recruitment drive for a data-entry position in Ethiopia, either a part-time or full-time job opportunity was randomly offered across villages. We find that the part-time work attracts a less qualified pool of applicants with a stronger preference for short work hours, who in turn exhibit lower productivity, all relative to the full-time work. Our preferred estimates show that this selection effect on productivity may explain up ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-51

Working Paper
Social Interventions, Health and Wellbeing: The Long-Term and Intergenerational Effects of a School Construction Program
Mazumder, Bhashkar; Triyana, Margaret; Rosales, Maria Fernanda (2019-10-28)
We analyze the long-run and intergenerational effects of a large-scale school building project (INPRES) that took place in Indonesia between 1974 and 1979. Specifically, we link the geographic rollout of INPRES to longitudinal data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey covering two generations. We find that individuals exposed to the program have better health later in life along multiple measures. We also find that the children of those exposed also experience improved health and educational outcomes and that these effects are generally stronger for maternal exposure than paternal exposure. ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2019-09

Report
Africa is on time
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. (2014-08-01)
We present evidence that the recent African growth renaissance has reached Africa?s poor. Using survey data on African income distributions and national accounts GDP, we estimate income distributions, poverty rates, and inequality indices for African countries for the period 1990-2011. Our findings are as follows. First, African poverty is falling rapidly. Second, the African countries for which good inequality data exist are set to reach the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) poverty reduction target on time. The entire continent except for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will reach ...
Staff Reports , Paper 686

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