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Working Paper
Structural Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Open Economy Perspective
de Vries, Gaaitzen; Yi, Kei-Mu; Mensah, Emmanuel; Kruse, Hagen; Vidogbena, Yabo (2024-12-24)
We study the evolution of manufacturing value added shares in 11 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change. Our analysis leverages recent developments in input-output tables in SSA countries. Our model allows for income effects via non-homothetic preferences, substitution and relative price effects, as well as comparative advantage and specialization effects. We calibrate our model to include each SSA country with nine other major economies for each year between 2000 and 2018. We also do a similar set of calibrations for 11 developing ...
Working Papers , Paper 2418

Working Paper
Modernization and Discrete Measures of Democracy
Spiegel, Mark M.; Corvalen, Alejandro; Benhabib, Jess (2014-01-14)
We reassess the empirical evidence for a positive relationship between income and democracy, commonly known as the ?modernization hypothesis,? using discrete democracy measures. While discrete measures have been advocated in the literature, they pose estimation problems under fixed effects due to incidental parameter issues. We use two methods to address these issues, the bias-correction method of Fernandez-Val, which directly computes the marginal effects, and the parameterized Wooldridge method. Estimation under the Fernandez-Val method consistently indicates a statistically and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-1

Working Paper
Capital Accumulation and Dynamic Gains from Trade
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Ravikumar, B.; Sposi, Michael (2017-02-27)
We compute welfare gains from trade in a dynamic, multicountry model with capital accumulation. We examine transition paths for 93 countries following a permanent, uniform, unanticipated trade liberalization. Both the relative price of investment and the investment rate respond to changes in trade frictions. Relative to a static model, the dynamic welfare gains in a model with balanced trade are three times as large. The gains including transition are 60 percent of those computed by comparing only steady states. Trade imbalances have negligible effects on the cross-country distribution of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-5

Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Adamopoulos, Tasso; Leibovici, Fernando (2024-02)
We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Working Paper
The Labor Market Consequences of Appropriate Technology
de Souza, Gustavo (2022-09-06)
Developing countries rely on technology created by developed countries. This paper demonstrates that such reliance increases wage inequality but leads to greater production in developing countries. I study a Brazilian innovation program that taxed the leasing of international technology to subsidize national innovation. I show that the program led firms to replace technology licensed from developed countries with in-house innovations, which led to a decline in both employment and the share of high-skilled workers. Using a model of directed technological change and technology transfer, I find ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-53

Working Paper
Institutions Do Not Rule: Reassessing the Driving Forces of Economic Development
Wen, Yi; Luo, Jinfeng (2015-01-16)
The pursuit to uncover the driving forces behind cross-country income gaps has divided economists into two major camps: One emphasizes institutions, while the other stresses non-institutional forces such as geography. Each school of thought has its own theoretical foundation and empirical support, but they share an implicit hypothesis?the forces driving economic development remain the same regardless of a country?s stage of development. Such hypothesis implies a theory that the process of development in human history is a continuous improvement in income levels, driven by the same forces, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-1

Working Paper
Natural Resources and Global Misallocation
Sanchez, Juan M.; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul (2015-07-07)
We explore the efficiency in the allocation of physical capital and human capital across countries. The observed marginal products can differ across countries because of differences in technology (i.e. production functions) and in distortions (i.e. differences in use of factors) across countries. To identify differences in technology, we use new data and propose a simple method to estimate output shares of natural resources, and thus adjust the estimated marginal products of physical and human capital. With a sample of 79 countries from 1970 to 2005, we find that the world has decidedly moved ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-13

Working Paper
Human Capital and Development Accounting: New Evidence from Wage Gains at Migration
Schoellman, Todd; Hendricks, Lutz (2017-08-10)
We use new data on the pre- and post-migration wages of U.S. immigrants to measure the importance of human capital for development accounting. Wages increase at migration, but by less than half of the gap in GDP per worker. This finding implies that human capital accounts for a large share of cross-country income differences. Wage gains decline with education, consistent with imperfect substitution between skill types. We bound the human capital share in development accounting to between one-half and two-thirds; additional assumptions lead to an estimate of 60 percent. We also provide results ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 1

Working Paper
The S-curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization
Li, Nan; Papageorgiou, Chris; Zha, Tao (2021-07-13)
Using a novel database of domestic financial reforms in 90 countries from 1973 to 2014, we document that global financial liberalization followed an S-curve path: reforms were slow and gradual in early periods, accelerated during the 1990s, and slowed down after 2000. We estimate a learning model that explains these dynamics. Policymakers updated their beliefs about the growth effects of financial reforms by learning from their own and other countries' experiences. Positive growth surprises in advanced economies helped accelerate belief updating worldwide, leading to the global wave of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-19

Working Paper
The great housing boom of China
Chen, Kaiji; Wen, Yi (2015-11-01)
China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-3

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