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Working Paper
Indian Residential Schools, Height, and Body Mass Post-1930
Feir, Donna; Auld, Chris (2019-08-16)
We study the effects of Canadian Indian residential schooling on two anthropometric measures of health during childhood: adult height and body weight. We use repeated cross sectional data from the 1991 and 2001 Aboriginal Peoples Survey and leverage detailed historical data on school closures and location to make causal inferences. We ?nd evidence that, on average, residential schooling increases adult height and the likelihood of a healthy adult body weight for those who attended. These effects are concentrated after the 1950s when the schools were subject to tighter health regulations and ...
Center for Indian Country Development series , Paper 3-2019

Working Paper
Up in Smoke: The Impact of Wildfire Pollution on Healthcare Municipal Finance
Lopez, Luis; Murphy, Dermot; Tzur-Ilan, Nitzan; Wilkoff, Sean (2025-01-09)
Wildfire smoke pollution is associated with significantly higher healthcare municipal borrowing costs, amounting to $250 million in realized interest costs for high-smoke counties in 2010–2019, and an estimated $570 million over the following 10 years. These costs are disproportionately higher in high-poverty or high-minority areas where there is more smoke-related uncompensated care. Out-of-state smoke is also associated with higher borrowing costs, suggesting poor wildfire management imposes externalities on nearby states. Our hospital-level analysis shows increases in asthma cases and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2503

Working Paper
Fireside Chats: Communication and Consumers’ Expectations in the Great Depression
Pedemonte, Mathieu (2020-10-06)
This paper shows how policy announcements can be used to manage expectations and have a role as a policy tool. Using regional variation in radio exposure, I evaluate the impact of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1935 Fireside Chat, in which he showcased the introduction of important social policies, establishing a new cycle of the New Deal. I document that cities with higher exposure to the announcement exhibited a significant increase in spending on durable goods. I provide evidence that this result is not driven by wealth or other potentially confounding variables. The estimated effect ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-30

Journal Article
High and Volatile Inflation Begets a More Volatile Business Cycle
Blanco, Andrés (2026-07-13)
Following five years of inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target, a pressing question for policymakers is: what are the macroeconomic consequences of inflation remaining persistently elevated? Drawing on historical lessons from the 1970s and a new theoretical framework, this paper shows that elevated and persistent inflation makes the economy more vulnerable to costpush shocks. When inflation is already high, a cost-push shock generates larger and more persistent inflation and a deeper output contraction than it would in an environment of low and stable inflation. The ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2026 , Issue 5 , Pages 10

Newsletter
How Common Was Blockbusting in the Postwar U.S.?
Bennett, Katherine; Hartley, Daniel; Rose, Jonathan D. (2022-07-01)
This article documents the prevalence of blockbusting—the orchestration of racial turnover in urban neighborhoods—throughout many major U.S. cities from the 1950s through the 1970s.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 468 , Pages 6

Discussion Paper
Combining AI and Established Methods for Historical Document Analysis
Moulton, Daniel; Santucci, Larry; Smith, Robyn (2025-10-25)
This paper examines methodological approaches for extracting structured data from large-scale historical document archives, comparing “hyperspecialized” versus “adaptive modular” strategies. Using 56 years of Philadelphia property deeds as a case study, we show the benefits of the adaptive modular approach leveraging optical character recognition (OCR), full-text search, and frontier large language models (LLMs) to identify deeds containing specific restrictive use language— achieving 98% precision and 90–98% recall. Our adaptive modular methodology enables analysis of ...
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers , Paper 25-02

Working Paper
College Access and Attendance Patterns: A Long-Run View
Herrington, Christopher; Hendricks, Lutz; Schoellman, Todd (2018-07-02)
We harmonize the results of 42 different data sets and studies dating back to the early 20th century to construct a time series of college attendance patterns for the United States. We find an important reversal around the time of World War II: before that time, family characteristics such as income were the better predictor of college attendance; afterwards, academic ability was the better predictor. We construct a model of college choice that can explain this reversal. The model's central mechanism is an exogenous rise in the demand for college that leads better colleges to become ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 10

Working Paper
Accounting for Central Neighborhood Change, 1980-2010
Hartley, Daniel; Baum-Snow, Nathaniel (2016-09-07)
Neighborhoods within 2 km of most central business districts of U.S. metropolitan areas experienced population declines from 1980 to 2000 but have rebounded markedly since 2000 at greater pace than would be expected from simple mean reversion. Statistical decompositions reveal that 1980-2000 departures of residents without a college degree (of all races) generated most of the declines while the return of college educated whites and the stabilization of neighborhood choices by less educated whites promoted most of the post-2000 rebound. The rise of childless households and the increase in the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-9

Working Paper
Immigration Restrictions and the Wages of Low-Skilled Labor: Evidence from the 1920s
Biddle, Jeff; Cohen, Elior (2025-02-25)
This paper examines how the U.S. immigration restrictions of the 1920s affected the wages of low-skilled workers using newly digitized annual wage data from 1910 to 1930. Exploiting variation across local labor markets, we find that wages for low-skilled workers rose faster in areas more affected by the restrictions. These wage effects emerged early in the 1920s and persisted throughout the decade across manufacturing, construction, and agricultural sectors. Our findings help explain previously documented internal migration patterns and demonstrate how reduced immigration affected labor ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 22-12

Working Paper
The Great Migration and Educational Opportunity
Baran, Cavit; Chyn, Eric; Stuart, Bryan (2022-02-08)
This paper studies the impact of the First Great Migration on children. We use the complete count 1940 Census to estimate selection-corrected place effects on education for children of Black migrants. On average, Black children gained 0.8 years of schooling (12 percent) by moving from the South to the North. Many counties that had the strongest positive impacts on children during the 1940s offer relatively poor opportunities for Black youth today. Opportunities for Black children were greater in places with more schooling investment, stronger labor market opportunities for Black adults, more ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-04

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