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Working Paper
A Market Interpretation of Treatment Effects
Minton, Robert; Mulligan, Casey B. (2024-12-20)
Markets, likened to an invisible hand, often appear to contradict econometric assumptions that rule out spillovers of one person’s treatment on another’s outcomes. This paper provides a simple statistical framework highlighting that controls are indirectly affected by the treatment through the market. Further, the effect of the treatment on the treated reveals only part of the consequence for the treated of treating the entire market. When combined with economic theory, our framework leads to a new application of Marshall’s Laws of Derived Demand that relates econometric estimates of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-096

Working Paper
Misallocation, informality, and human capital: understanding the role of institutions
Senkal, Asli; D'Erasmo, Pablo; Moscoso Boedo, Herman J. (2014-03-24)
Accepted for publication, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control The aim of this paper is to quantify the role of formal-sector institutions in shaping the demand for human capital and the level of informality. We propose a firm dynamics model where firms face capital market imperfections and costs of operating in the formal sector. Formal firms have a larger set of production opportunities and the ability to employ skilled workers, but informal firms can avoid the costs of formalization. These firm-level distortions give rise to endogenous formal and informal sectors and, more importantly, ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-11

Working Paper
Diverging Trends in National and Local Concentration
Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Trachter, Nicholas (2018-09-24)
Using U.S. NETS data, we present evidence that the positive trend observed in national product-market concentration between 1990 and 2014 becomes a negative trend when we focus on measures of local concentration. We document diverging trends for several geographic definitions of local markets. SIC 8 industries with diverging trends are pervasive across sectors. In these industries, top firms have contributed to the amplification of both trends. When a top firm opens a plant, local concentration declines and remains lower for at least seven years. Our findings, therefore, reconcile the ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-15

Working Paper
Distant Lending, Specialization, and Access to Credit
Di, Wenhua; Pattison, Nathaniel (2020-01-16)
Small business lending has historically been very local, but distances between small businesses and their lenders have steadily increased over the last forty years. This paper investigates a new lending strategy made possible by distant small business lending: industry specialization. Using data on all Small Business Administration 7(a) loans from 2001-2017, we document a substantial increase in remote, specialized small business lenders, i.e., lenders that originate many distant loans and concentrate these loans within a small number of industries. These lenders target low-risk industries ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003

Working Paper
The Effects of Competition in the Retail Gasoline Industry
Taylor, Reid; Muehlegger, Erich (2025-03-05)
We estimate the effect of competition on incumbent firm pricing by using high frequency price data and the precise geographic location for all gas stations in California. Using an event study design, we find that the entry of a new station is associated with a 2.5 cent decrease in prices at incumbent stores, which equates to a 7 percent reduction in estimated retail markups. The effects are immediate, persistent and show no sign of deterrence or limit pricing behavior. In contrast, nearby exit results in precisely estimated null effects on prices with no evidence of predatory pricing in the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2509

Journal Article
Global integration in the banking industry
Smith, David C.; Berger, Allen N. (2003-11)
Lowered regulatory barriers and advances in technology have reduced the cost of supplying banking services across borders. At the same time, growth in activity by multinational corporations has increased the demand for international financial services. As a result, many observers believe that global integration is under way in the banking industry, that banks are expanding their reach across borders, and that many banking markets will therefore develop large foreign components. The authors report on a study conducted by them, along with Qinglei Dai and Steven Ongena, that examined the ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 89 , Issue Nov , Pages 451-460

Working Paper
Markups and misallocation with trade and heterogeneous firms
Weinberger, Ariel (2015-09-01)
With non-homothetic preferences, a monopolistic competition equilibrium is inefficient in the way inputs are allocated towards production. This paper quantifies a gains from trade component that is present only when reallocation is properly measured in a setting with heterogeneous firms that charge variable markups. Due to variable markups, reallocations initiated by aggregate shocks impact allocative efficiency depending on the adjustment of the market power distribution. My measurement compares real income growth with the hypothetical case of no misallocation in quantities. Using firm and ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 251

Report
The impact of network size on bank branch performance
Hirtle, Beverly (2005)
Despite recent innovations that might have reduced banks' reliance on brick-and-mortar branches for distributing retail financial services, the number of U.S. bank branches has continued to increase steadily over time. Further, an increasing percentage of these branches are held by banks with large branch networks. This paper assesses the implications of these developments by examining a series of simple branch performance measures and asking how these measures vary, on average, across institutions with different branch network sizes. The key findings are that banks with 100 to 500 branches ...
Staff Reports , Paper 211

Working Paper
What is the Value of Being a Superhost?
Berentsen, Aleksander; Waller, Christopher J.; Breu, Mariana Rojas (2019-07-01)
We construct a search model where sellers post prices and produce goods of unknown quality. A match reveals the quality of the seller. Buyers rate sellers based on quality. We show that unrated sellers charge a low price to attract buyers and that highly rated sellers post a high price and sell with a higher probability than unrated sellers. We fi nd that welfare is higher with a ratings system. Using data on Airbnb rentals, we show that Superhosts and hosts with high ratings: 1) charge higher prices, 2) have a higher occupancy rate and 3) higher revenue than average hosts.
Working Papers , Paper 2019-19

Working Paper
Scalable vs. Productive Technologies
Chan, Mons; Hong, Guangbin; Hubmer, Joachim; Ozkan, Serdar; Salgado, Sergio (2024-07-11)
Do larger firms have more productive technologies or are their technologies more scalable, or both? We use administrative data on Canadian and US firms to estimate flexible nonparametric production functions. Our estimation results in a joint distribution of output elasticities of capital, labor, and intermediate inputs---therefore, returns to scale (RTS)---along with total factor productivity (TFP). We find significant heterogeneity in both RTS and TFP across firms. Larger firms operate technologies with higher RTS, both across and within industries. Higher RTS for large firms are entirely ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-019

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