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Working Paper
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando (2022-06)
We quantify the barriers to the economic integration of immigrants using an occupational choice model with natives and immigrants of multiple types subject to wedges that distort their allocations. We show that key parameters, including wedges, can be estimated to match the distribution of employment and earnings across individuals and occupations. We find sizable output gains from removing immigrant wedges in the U.S., accounting for 7 percent of immigrants’ overall economic contribution. These gains arise from increased labor force participation and from reallocation from manual toward ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-004

Working Paper
Does immigration crowd natives into or out of higher education?
Jackson, Osborne (2015-10-01)
Over the past several decades, the United States has experienced some of its largest immigrant inflows since the Great Depression. This higher level of immigration has generated significant debate on the effects of such inflows on receiving markets and natives. Education market studies have found that inflows of immigrant students can displace some natives from enrollment. Meanwhile, labor market studies have primarily examined the impact of immigrant labor inflows on the wages of similarly and dissimilarly skilled natives, with mixed results. The lack of consensus in the wage studies has ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-18

Working Paper
The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Wilson, Daniel J. (2026-03-23)
From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2607

Working Paper
The supply and demand of skilled workers in cities and the role of industry composition
Brinkman, Jeffrey (2014-10-20)
The share of high-skilled workers in U.S. cities is positively correlated with city size, and this correlation strengthened between 1980 and 2010. Furthermore, during the same time period, the U.S. economy experienced a significant structural transformation with regard to industrial composition, most notably in the decline of manufacturing and the rise of high-skilled service industries. To decompose and investigate these trends, this paper develops and estimates a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and workers that allows for both industry-specific and skill-specific ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-32

Working Paper
The Role of Social Costs in Response to Labor Market Opportunities: Differences across Race
Burns, Kalee; Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2023-07-14)
Using the American Community Survey between 2005 and 2019, this paper investigates the role constraints to migration might play in explaining racial/ethnic disparities in the labor market. We find that Black workers are typically less responsive than White workers to changes in job opportunities, but responsiveness increases when those opportunities present themselves in locations with a higher share own-minority population. We construct an education/race specific Bartik shift-share instrument to control for potential endogeneity of growth in job opportunities.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2023-7

Working Paper
Floating Population: Migration With(Out) Family and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity
Imbert, Clément; Monras, Joan; Seror, Marlon; Zylberberg, Yanos (2023-08-30)
This paper argues that migrants’ decision to bring their dependent family members shapes their consumption behavior, their choice of destination, and their sensitivity to migration barriers. We document that in China: (i) rural migrants disproportionately move to expensive cities; (ii) in these cities they live without their family and in poorer housing conditions; and (iii) they remit more, especially when living without their family. We then develop a quantitative general equilibrium spatial model in which migrant households choose whether, how (with or without their family), and where to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-26

Working Paper
The Geography of Wealth: Shocks, Mobility and Precautionary Savings
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Greaney, Brian (2026-08-17)
The spatial distribution of wealth in the United States is very heterogeneous. We study the spatial distribution of wealth in a country and how it is shaped by regional earning characteristics and mobility frictions. For this, we develop a tractable model of consumption, savings and location choice with many regions, incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents facing persistent and transitory income shocks. Our theory extends a workhorse macroeconomic model of consumption and savings under uncertainty to an economy with multiple labor markets and costly mobility. Despite complex spatial and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2627

Working Paper
The Effect of Immigration on Business Dynamics and Employment
Orrenius, Pia M.; Abraham, Alexander T.; Zavodny, Madeline (2020-02-28)
Immigration, like any positive labor supply shock, should increase the return to capital and spur business investment. These changes should have a positive impact on business creation and expansion, particularly in areas that receive large immigrant inflows. Despite this clear prediction, there is sparse empirical evidence on the effect of immigration on business dynamics. One reason may be data unavailability since public-access firm-level data are rare. This study examines the impact of immigration on business dynamics and employment by combining U.S. data on immigrant inflows from the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2004

Working Paper
The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate
Coglianese, John M.; Montes, Joshua; Cajner, Tomaz (2021-07-30)
How cyclical is the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR)? We examine its response to exogenous state-level business cycle shocks, finding that the LFPR is highly cyclical, but with a significantly longer-lived response than the unemployment rate. The LFPR declines after a negative shock for about four years—well beyond when the unemployment rate has begun to recover—and takes about eight years to fully recover after the shock. The decline and recovery of the LFPR is largely driven by individuals with home and family responsibilities, as well as by younger individuals spending time ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-047

Working Paper
Subnational Bilateral Remittance Flows in the U.S.-Mexico Corridor: A Multi-Source Imputation and Validation
Flores, Miguel; Cañas, Jesus (2026-08-03)
More than $65 billion annually flows through Mexico’s remittance corridor, the largest such pathway in the Western Hemisphere. Yet, the distribution of these flows across regions and the implications for financial inclusion—or alternatively, perpetuating inequality—remain poorly understood. This paper exploits bilateral remittance flows between U.S. and Mexican states during 2013–25 to construct and validate a multi-source origin–destination framework linking Banco de México’s U.S.-state outflows with Mexican state-level receipts. We develop allocation matrices from consular ...
Working Papers , Paper 2621

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