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Working Paper
Migration as a Vector of Economic Losses from Disaster-Affected Areas in the United States
Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack; Whitaker, Stephan D.; Price, Kobie; Soto, Michael; Curtis, Katherine; McConnell, Kathryn; Castro, Catalina Anampa (2021-10-13)
In this paper, we infuse consideration of migration into research on economic losses from extreme weather disasters. Taking a comparative case study approach and using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, we document the size of economic losses via migration from 23 disaster-affected areas in the United States after the most damaging hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires on record. We then employ demographic standardization and decomposition to determine if these losses primarily reflect changes in out-migration or changes in the economic resources that ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-22

Working Paper
A New Labor Market Stress Indicator
Jordà, Òscar; Singh, Sanjay R.; Garimella, Rohit (2025-12-31)
Recessions are periods where the labor market deteriorates rapidly. Supporting business conditions to prevent such deterioration is a core objective of policymakers. In this paper we construct a labor market stress indicator (LMSI) primarily based on state-level unemployment insurance claims data that are observable as often as at weekly frequency. By examining both the geographical spread and the depth of labor market stress buildup, we provide an early indicator whose main function is to alert policymakers of potential economic slowdowns. Because the majority (but not all) of these ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2025-31

Working Paper
The intensive and extensive margins of real wage adjustment
Hobijn, Bart; Daly, Mary C. (2016-03-31)
Using 35 years of data from the Current Population Survey we decompose fluctuations in real median weekly earnings growth into the part driven by movements in the intensive margin-wage growth of individuals continuously full-time employed-and movements in the extensive margin-wage differences of those moving into and out of full-time employment. The relative importance of these two margins varies significantly over the business cycle. When labor markets are tight, continuously full-time employed workers drive wage growth. During labor market downturns, the procyclicality of the intensive ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-4

Working Paper
Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Valletta, Robert G. (2020-05-05)
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. The possible paths vary widely, but absent ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-18

Working Paper
House Lock and Structural Unemployment
Valletta, Robert G. (2010-11-03)
A recent decline in geographic mobility in the United States may have been caused in part by falling house prices, through the ?lock in? effects of financial constraints faced by households whose housing debt exceeds the market value of their home. I analyze the relationship between such ?house lock? and the elevated levels and persistence of unemployment during the recent recession and its aftermath, using data that covers the period through the end of 2011. Because house lock will extend job search in the local labor market for homeowners whose home value has declined, I focus on ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2012-25

Working Paper
Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models
Nechio, Fernanda; Carvalho, Carlos (2017-06-08)
We show that a calibrated three-sector model with a suitably chosen distribution of price stickiness can closely approximate the dynamic properties of New Keynesian models with a much larger number of sectors. The parameters of the approximate three-sector distribution are such that both the approximate and the original distributions share the same (i) average frequency of price changes, (ii) cross-sectional average of durations of price spells, (iii) cross-sectional standard deviation of durations of price spells, (iv) the cross-sectional skewness of durations of price spells, and (v) ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2017-12

Working Paper
Place-Based Labor Market Inequality
Troland, Erin; Webber, Douglas A.; Liu, Jessica; Agnes, Isabella (2025-06-02)
This paper presents an overview of how various labor market indicators differ across geography. While many indicators are often discussed in terms of national aggregates, such discussions obscure the large degree of variation that exists across localities. We primarily use counties as a geographic unit, and document both structural differences that persist over time as well as differences in the past two business cycles. The racial composition of communities plays a large role in explaining geographic differences in labor market indicators, in some cases even more so than income. We ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-040

Working Paper
Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Ratner, David; Chung, Hess T.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; Fallick, Bruce (2014-12-17)
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market conditions index (LMCI) is a useful tool for gauging the change in labor market conditions. In addition, the model provides a way to organize discussions of the signal value of different labor market indicators in situations when they might be sending diverse signals. The model takes the greatest signal ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-109

Working Paper
Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market
Wozniak, Abigail; Smith, Christopher L.; Trezzi, Riccardo; Molloy, Raven S. (2016-03-02)
We document a clear downward trend in labor market fluidity that is common across a variety of measures of worker and job turnover. This trend dates to at least the early 1980s if not somewhat earlier. Next we pull together evidence on a variety of hypotheses that might explain this downward trend. It is only partly related to population demographics and is not due to the secular shift in industrial composition. Moreover, the decline in labor market fluidity seems unlikely to have been caused by an improvement in worker-firm matching, the formalization of hiring practices, or an increase in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-15

Working Paper
Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting
Ahn, Hie Joo; Crane, Leland D. (2020-03-27)
We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency, changes in the job separation rate, and out-of-steady-state dynamics. We find that the shift in the Beveridge curve during and after the Great Recession was due to all three factors, and each factor taken separately had a large effect. Comparing the pre-2010 period to the post-2010 period, a fall in matching efficiency and out-of-steady-state dynamics ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-027

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