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Working Paper
Changing Jobs to Fight Inflation: Labor Market Reactions to Inflationary Shocks
Bostanci, Gorkem; Koru, Omer; Villalvazo, Sergio (2025-06-04)
We argue that inflationary shocks affect allocative efficiency by changing the rate and the characteristics of workers’ job-to-job transitions. First, using monetary policy shocks and survey data on search effort, we empirically show that a one percentage point rise in inflation increases job-to-job transitions by up to 4.5%, and workers with higher inflation expectations are more likely to search and do so more effectively. Second, we build a general equilibrium model of directed on-the-job search to quantify the aggregate implications of labor market reactions. Higher-than-expected ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-042

Working Paper
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando (2022-06)
We quantify the barriers to the economic integration of immigrants using an occupational choice model with natives and immigrants of multiple types subject to wedges that distort their allocations. We show that key parameters, including wedges, can be estimated to match the distribution of employment and earnings across individuals and occupations. We find sizable output gains from removing immigrant wedges in the U.S., accounting for 7 percent of immigrants’ overall economic contribution. These gains arise from increased labor force participation and from reallocation from manual toward ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-004

Working Paper
Dynamic Responses to Immigration
Colas, Mark (2018-01-29)
I analyze the dynamic effects of immigration by estimating an equilibrium model of local labor markets in the US. The model includes firms in multiple cities and sectors which combine capital, skilled and unskilled labor in production, and forward-looking workers who choose their sector and location each period as a dynamic discrete choice. A counterfactual unskilled immigration inflow leads to an initial wage drop for unskilled workers and a wage increase for skilled workers. These effects dissipate rapidly as unskilled workers migrate away from heavily affected cities and workers shift ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 6

Working Paper
Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality
Bick, Alexander; Rogerson, Richard; Blandin, Adam (2024-09-16)
We document large differences in lifetime hours of work using data from the NLSY79 and argue that these differences are an important source of inequality in lifetime earnings. To establish this we develop and calibrate a rich heterogeneous agent model of labor supply and human capital accumulation that allows for heterogeneity in preferences for work, initial human capital and learning ability, as well as idiosyncratic shocks to human capital throughout the life-cycle. Our calibrated model implies that almost 20 percent of the variance in lifetime earnings is accounted for by differences in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-024

Working Paper
The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences
Morchio, Iacopo; Moser, Christian (2023-09-06)
Using linked employer-employee data from Brazil, we document a large gender pay gap due to women working at lower-paying employers with better amenities. To interpret these facts, we develop an equilibrium search model with endogenous firm pay, amenities, and employment. We provide a constructive proof of identification of all model parameters. The estimated model suggests that amenities are important for men and women, that compensating differentials explain half of the gender pay gap, and that there are significant output and welfare gains from eliminating gender differences. However, ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 078

Journal Article
Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes
Guvenen, Fatih; Kaplan, Greg (2017-10)
We revisit recent empirical evidence about the rise in top income inequality in the United States, drawing attention to key issues that we believe are critical for an informed discussion about changing inequality since 1980: the definition of income (labor versus total), the unit of analysis (individual versus tax unit), the importance of partnership and S-corporation income, income shifting between the corporate and personal sectors in response to tax incentives, the definition of the top of the distribution, and trends in the middle and bottom of the distribution. Our goal is to inform ...
Quarterly Review , Issue October , Pages 2-15

Working Paper
The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Wilson, Daniel J. (2026-03-23)
From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2607

Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Respond to Hiring Difficulties?
Terry, Ellyn; de Zeeuw, Mels (2018-03-01)
Using data from the Federal Reserve Banks' 2017 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS), this paper investigates the various ways in which different types of firms with less than 500 employees experience and address hiring difficulties, including when they decide to increase compensation.The authors find significant variation in hiring difficulties by type of firm, and a firm's response appears to depend on the nature of the problem. The most common response is to increase compensation, with firms that experience competition from other employers being the most likely to do so. Other common ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2018-01

Report
Identifying inflation's grease and sand effects in the labor market
Schweitzer, Mark E.; Groshen, Erica L. (1997-10-01)
Inflation has been accused of causing distortionary prices and wage fluctuations (sand) as well as lauded for facilitating adjustments to shocks when wages are rigid downwards (grease). This paper investigates whether these two effects can be distinguished from each other in a labor market by the following identification strategy: inflation-induced deviations among employer's mean wage-changes represent unintended intramarket distortions (sand), while inflation-induced, inter-occupational wage-changes reflect intended alignments with intermarket forces (grease). Using a unique 40-year panel ...
Staff Reports , Paper 31

Working Paper
Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality
Moser, Christian; Saidi, Farzad; Wirth, Benjamin; Wolter, Stefanie (2026-05-22)
We study the distributional consequences of monetary policy-induced credit supply in the German labor market. Firms in relationships with banks that are more exposed to the introduction of negative interest rates in 2014 experience a relative contraction in credit supply, associated with lower average wages. Within firms, initially lower-paid workers are more likely to leave employment, while initially higher-paid workers see a relative decline in wages. Between firms, wages fall by more at initially higher-paying employers. Our results suggest that credit affects the distribution of wages ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 128

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