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Working Paper
Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Smith, Christopher L.; Aaronson, Stephanie; Fallick, Bruce; Galbis-Reig, Felix; Wascher, William L.; Cajner, Tomaz (2014-09-10)
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1410

Journal Article
Saving for Retirement with Job Loss Risk
Grochulski, Borys; Zhang, Yuzhe (2013-01)
This article studies a tractable theoretical model of optimal consumption and saving decisions with endogenous retirement. Particular attention is paid to the impact of an increase in the risk of losing one?s job on the optimal path of consumption and wealth accumulation. Even if one does not actually lose their job, an increase in the risk of a job loss is by itself sufficient to cause lower consumption, higher saving, and, through faster retirement, lower labor supply.
Economic Quarterly , Issue 1Q , Pages 45-81

Working Paper
Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt (2025-03-21)
Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, including increases in net worth, the deterioration of the labor market with higher job separations, the expansion of fiscal transfer programs, and higher mortality risk. We develop an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a frictional labor market to quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their contributions to the rise in retirements. We find that new ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-017

Working Paper
Medical Expenses and Saving in Retirement: The Case of U.S. and Sweden
Nakajima, Makoto; Telyukova, Irina A. (2018-04-10)
Many U.S. households have significant wealth late in life, contrary to the predictions of a simple life-cycle model. In this paper, we document stark differences between U.S. and Sweden regarding out-of-pocket medical and long-term-care expenses late in life, and use them to investigate their role in discouraging the elderly from dissaving. Using a consumption-saving model in retirement with significant uninsurable expense risk, we find that medical expense risk accounts for a quarter of the U.S.-Sweden difference in retirees' dissaving patterns. Furthermore, medical expense risk affects ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 8

Working Paper
Population aging, labor demand, and the structure of wages
Patria, Margarita; Papadopoulos, Michael; Triest, Robert K. (2017-05-31)
One consequence of demographic change is substantial shifts in the age distribution of the working-age population. As the baby boom generation ages, the usual historical pattern of a high ratio of younger workers relative to older workers has been replaced by a pattern of roughly equal percentages of workers of different ages. One might expect that the increasing relative supply of older workers would lower the wage premium paid for older, more experienced workers. This paper provides strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Econometric estimates imply that the size of one?s birth cohort ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-1

Working Paper
Occupational Choice, Retirement, and the Effects of Disability Insurance
Jacobs, Lindsay (2016-06)
There is much variation in the physical requirements across occupations, giving rise to great differences in later-life productivity, disability risk, and the value of Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). In this paper, I look at how such differences across occupations affect initial career choice as well as the extent to which SSDI, which insures shocks to productivity due to disability, prompts more people to choose physically intense occupations. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS), I estimate a dynamic model of occupational ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-051

Working Paper
Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt (2024-07)
Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, such as the rise in net worth due to higher asset returns, the labor market's deterioration due to higher unemployment risk, the expansion of fiscal support programs, and increased mortality risk. We quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their relative contribution to the recent rise in retirements using an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-017

Report
Why New England’s Labor Force Participation Has Been Recovering So Slowly since the COVID-19 Pandemic
Burke, Mary A.; Nelson, Nathaniel R. (2025-01-01)
This report investigates a variety of factors that may explain why New England experienced a participation recovery gap from 2019 through 2023 and discusses the resulting policy implications.
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 25-1

Journal Article
How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?
Webb, Anthony; Owyang, Michael T.; Sun, Wei; Friedberg, Leora (2017)
Compared with prime-age workers, older workers face an easier path out of the labor force if they lose their jobs during a recession. However, premature job exits or earnings losses in the years leading up to retirement may be particularly devastating to retirement savings. The authors analyze the impact of recent business cycles on retirement using multifaceted job transitions of older workers. They focus on local labor markets because older workers are particularly unlikely to move for work. Surprisingly, the biggest effect of a higher local unemployment rate on older workers is to raise ...
Review , Volume 99 , Issue 3 , Pages 259-78

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