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Working Paper
Hysteresis in Employment among Disadvantaged Workers
Krolikowski, Pawel; Fallick, Bruce (2018-02-06)
We examine hysteresis in employment-to-population ratios among less-educated men using state-level data. Results from dynamic panel regressions indicate a moderate degree of hysteresis: The effects of past employment rates on subsequent employment rates can be substantial but essentially dissipate within three years. This finding is robust to a number of variations. We find no substantial asymmetry in the persistence of high vs. low employment rates. The cumulative effect of hysteresis in the business cycle surrounding the 2001 recession was mildly positive, while the effect in the cycle ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1801

Journal Article
Labor Markets Are Tight, but Conditions Vary across States
Matschke, Johannes; Sattiraju, Sai (2021-12-22)
A record 4.4 million employees quit their jobs in September 2021, and many businesses are struggling to fill open positions. Although at a national level the labor market appears historically tight, we show that labor market tightness differs widely across states. Most states have tighter labor markets than before the pandemic, but others have struggled to recover.
Economic Bulletin , Issue Dec 22, 2021 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Why Labor Force Participation (Usually) Increases when Unemployment Declines
Hornstein, Andreas (2013-01)
Unemployment and labor force participation (LFP) are usually negatively correlated over the business cycle, that is, once the unemployment rate starts to decline the LFP rate starts to increase after about half a year. Using gross flow data on labor market transitions, we show that this cyclical co-movement pattern between the unemployment rate and the LFP rate can be attributed to two factors. First, low unemployment rates imply a low average exit rate from the labor force, which in turn increases the LFP rate. Second, transition rates from out-of-the-labor-force to employment without an ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 1Q , Pages 1-23

Report
Allocation and Employment Effect of the Paycheck Protection Program
Joaquim, Gustavo (2021-12-21)
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was a large and unprecedented small-business support program enacted as a response to the COVID-19 crisis in the United States. The PPP administered almost $800 billion in loans and grants to small businesses through the banking system. However, there is still limited consensus on its overall effect on employment. This paper explores why it is challenging to estimate the effect of the PPP. To do so, we first focus on the timing of the allocation of PPP funds across regions and firms. Counties less affected by COVID-19 and with a larger presence of ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Journal Article
Lower Labor Force Participation Rates and Slower Population Growth Pose Challenges for Employers
Shampine, Sam; Felix, Alison (2022-03-30)
As the nation recovers from the pandemic-induced recession, finding workers to fill job openings has beena headwind for many regions and industries. Although many researchers have pointed to the sharp declinein labor force participation rates as an explanation, the role of population growth over time has receivedless attention. We examine state and national trends in these measures and show that slower populationgrowth and an aging population may put downward pressure on labor force growth for some time.
Economic Bulletin , Issue Mar 30, 2022 , Pages 4

Discussion Paper
Career Pathways in a Changing Labor Market
Bozarth, Ashley (2018-01-31)
Recently, labor economists, workforce development policy analysts, and workforce development practitioners gathered at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to examine the effects of automation and shifting labor demands on the future of work. Presenters included Dan Restuccia of Burning Glass Technologies, Sara Lamback of Jobs for the Future, Daniel Kreisman of Georgia State University, Chad Shearer of the Brookings Institution, Susan Lund of McKinsey Global Institute, and Nancey Green Leigh and Ben Kraft of Georgia Institute of Technology. The researchers collected data from job postings, ...
Workforce Currents , Paper 2018-01

Working Paper
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Asian American Employment
Honore, Bo E.; Hu, Luojia (2020-09-22)
This paper documents that the employment of Asian Americans with no college education has been especially hard hit by the economic crisis associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. This cannot be explained by differences in demographics or in job characteristics. Asian American employment is also harder hit unconditional on education. This suggests that different selection into education levels across ethnic groups alone cannot explain the main results. This pattern does not apply to the 2008 economic crisis. Our findings suggest that this period might be fundamentally different from the previous ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-19

Working Paper
Predicting College Closures and Financial Distress
Kelchen, Robert; Ritter, Dubravka; Webber, Douglas A. (2025-01-06)
In this paper, we assemble the most comprehensive dataset to date on the characteristics of colleges and universities, including dates of operation, institutional setting, student body, staff, and finance data from 2002 to 2023. We provide an extensive description of what is known and unknown about closed colleges compared with institutions that did not close. Using this data, we first develop a series of predictive models of financial distress, utilizing factors like operational revenue/expense patterns, sources of revenue, metrics of liquidity and leverage, enrollment/staff patterns, and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-003

Journal Article
The Faster Growth of Larger, Less Crowded Locations
Rappaport, Jordan (2018-10)
Over the past few decades, the population and employment growth of small and large locations in the United States have diverged. Many smaller cities and rural areas saw declining population and employment from 2000 to 2017 as residents and jobs migrated to larger, more prosperous locations. This migration might suggest that the benefits of size, such as business productivity and urban amenities, have become greater over time. However, the migration might also reflect other factors, such as the disproportionate specialization of smaller locations in the declining manufacturing and agriculture ...
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 5-38

Working Paper
The Labor Market Effects of Place-Based Policies: Evidence from England’s Neighbourhood Renewal Fund
Jump, Robert Calvert; Scavette, Adam (2022-03-23)
Neighborhood renewal programs are a type of place-based policy that aim to revive underperforming localities. The literature on place-based policies has found mixed results regarding their effects on local labor market outcomes, but there are relatively few studies of policies that aim to improve local labor supply. In this paper, we examine the labor market effects of the Neighbourhood Renewal Fund, which targeted eighty-eight of the most deprived areas in England during the early 2000s as part of the Labour Government's National Strategy for Neighbourhood Renewal. The fund disbursed almost ...
Working Paper , Paper 22-02

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