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Working Paper
Employment Dynamics in a Signaling Model with Workers' Incentives
Weingarden, Alison E. (2017-04)
Many firms adjust employment in a "lumpy" manner -- infrequently and in large bursts. In this paper, I show that lumpy adjustments can arise from concerns about the incentives of remaining workers. Specifically, I develop a model in which a firm's productivity depends on its workers' effort and workers' income prospects depend on the firm's profitability. I use this model to analyze the consequences of demand shocks that are observed by the firm but not by its workers, who can only try to infer the firm's profitability from its employment decisions. I show that the resulting signaling model ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-040

Journal Article
The Shifting Expectations for Work from Home
Brown, Jason; Tousey, Colton (2023-02-23)
As COVID-19 moves to an endemic state, employers have brought workers back to the office. Many workers prefer to continue working from home a portion of time, resulting in a gap between employee preferences for work from home and employer plans. Knowing who currently works from home a larger share of time and where this gap is narrowest across worker characteristics and locations helps explain where and for whom work from home is most likely to remain a permanent feature in the labor market.Using a relatively new data source, the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, Jason P. Brown ...
Economic Review , Volume vol.108 , Issue no.2 , Pages 22

Working Paper
The Labor Market Effects of Place-Based Policies: Evidence from England’s Neighbourhood Renewal Fund
Jump, Robert Calvert; Scavette, Adam (2022-03-23)
Neighborhood renewal programs are a type of place-based policy that aim to revive underperforming localities. The literature on place-based policies has found mixed results regarding their effects on local labor market outcomes, but there are relatively few studies of policies that aim to improve local labor supply. In this paper, we examine the labor market effects of the Neighbourhood Renewal Fund, which targeted eighty-eight of the most deprived areas in England during the early 2000s as part of the Labour Government's National Strategy for Neighbourhood Renewal. The fund disbursed almost ...
Working Paper , Paper 22-02

Working Paper
The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Wilson, Daniel J. (2026-03-23)
From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2607

Working Paper
Ten Days Late and Billions of Dollars Short: The Employment Effects of Delays in Paycheck Protection Program Financing
Doniger, Cynthia L.; Kay, Benjamin S. (2021-01-15)
Delay in the provision of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans due to insufficient initial funding under the CARES Act substantially and persistently reduced employment. Delayed loans increased job losses in May and persistently reduced recalls throughout the summer. The magnitude and heterogeneity of effects suggest significant barriers to obtaining external financing, particularly among small firms. Effects are inequitably distributed: larger among the self-employed, less well paid, less well educated and--importantly for the design of future programs--in very small firms. Our estimates ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-003

Report
Labor force participation in New England vs. the United States, 2007–2015: why was the regional decline more moderate?
Burke, Mary A. (2016-10-01)
This paper identifies the main forces that contributed to the decline in labor force participation in New England between 2007 and 2015, as well as the forces that moderated the region?s decline relative to that of the nation. This exercise contributes to an assessment of the outlook for participation in New England moving forward. Similar to previous findings pertaining to the United States as a whole, the single largest factor in the recent decline in labor force participation in New England was the shifting age composition of the region?s population. In particular, the share of New England ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 16-2

Working Paper
Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real Estate Market
Zhang, Calvin; Li, Zhimin; Shen, Leslie Sheng (2020-06-30)
We study the effects of foreign real estate capital flows on local asset prices and employment using detailed housing transactions data. We document (i) a "China shock" in the U.S. real estate market after 2007 driven by the Chinese government's house purchase restrictions and (ii) "home bias" in foreign Chinese housing purchases in the United States as they are concentrated in ZIP codes historically populated by ethnic Chinese. Exploiting the quasi-random temporal and spatial variation of real estate capital inflows from China, we find that foreign Chinese housing purchases have a positive ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1286

Working Paper
The supply and demand of skilled workers in cities and the role of industry composition
Brinkman, Jeffrey (2014-10-20)
The share of high-skilled workers in U.S. cities is positively correlated with city size, and this correlation strengthened between 1980 and 2010. Furthermore, during the same time period, the U.S. economy experienced a significant structural transformation with regard to industrial composition, most notably in the decline of manufacturing and the rise of high-skilled service industries. To decompose and investigate these trends, this paper develops and estimates a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and workers that allows for both industry-specific and skill-specific ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-32

Working Paper
The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States
Fallick, Bruce; Foote, Christopher L. (2022-10-18)
Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a "shift-share" method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population — the focus of most previous work — and extend the date range of analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-27

Report
Gender roles and medical progress
Albanesi, Stefania; Olivetti, Claudia (2015-03-01)
Maternal mortality was the second-leading cause of death for women in childbearing years up until the mid-1930s in the United States. For each death, twenty times as many mothers were estimated to suffer pregnancy-related conditions, often leading to severe and prolonged disablement. Poor maternal health made it particularly hard for mothers to engage in market work. Between 1930 and 1960, there was a remarkable reduction in maternal mortality and morbidity, thanks to medical advances. We argue that these medical advances, by enabling women to reconcile work and motherhood, were essential for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 720

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