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Working Paper
Shocks and Adjustments
Nechio, Fernanda; Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Jordà, Òscar (2013)
We develop a multisector model in which capital and labor are free to move across firms within each sector, but cannot move across sectors. To isolate the role of sectoral specificity, we compare our model with otherwise identical multisector economies with either economy-wide factor markets (as in Chari et al. 2000) or firm-specific factor markets (as in Woodford 2005). Sectoral specificity induces within-sector strategic substitutability and across-sector strategic complementarity in price setting. Our model can produce either more or less monetary non-neutrality than those other two ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-32

Newsletter
Measuring the Effects of the Covid-19 Delta Wave on the U.S. Hourly Labor Market
Grove, Stephanie; Cole, Ross; Brave, Scott A. (2021-10-01)
In this article, we take a closer look at the implications of rising Covid-19 cases and vaccination rates for the U.S. hourly labor market. To do so, we rely on geographic variation in the high-frequency data collected by the firm Homebase with its timekeeping software. This data source allows us to make use of U.S. state-level variation on a daily basis in order to decompose the effects on hourly employees and hours worked from both rising cases and vaccinations.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 461 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Bank Capital Pressures, Loan Substitutability, and Nonfinancial Employment
Lee, Seung Jung; Stebunovs, Viktors (2016-04)
We exploit the cross-state, cross-time variation in bank tangible capital ratios-brought about by bank branch deregulation on a state-by-state basis-to identify the effects of bank capital pressures on employment and firm dynamics during two waves of changes in bank capital regulation. We show that stronger capital pressures temporarily slowed down growth in employment in industries that depend on external finance, retarding growth in the average size of firms rather than in the number of firms. Such effects were particularly strong for smaller firms that may not have had access to national ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1161

Discussion Paper
Financing Workforce Development in a Devolutionary Era
Andreason, Stuart (2016-04-01)
Workforce development financing has changed significantly over the last 25 years. In 2008, federal funding for the traditional workforce development system was 83 percent lower in real terms than it had been in 1980. As the federal system plays a smaller role in workforce development financing, the job training landscape better represents a “marketplace” where students and job seekers use federal training vouchers and grant and student loan money from various sources, primarily the Higher Education Act’s Pell Grant and Federal Student Loan programs. Additionally, increasing volatility ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2016-02

Working Paper
Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations
Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Drautzburg, Thorsten (2020-03-12)
We argue that social and political risk causes signiﬁcant aggregate ﬂuctuations by changing bargaining power. To that end, we document signiﬁcant changes in the capital share after large political events, such as political realignments, modiﬁcations in collective bargaining rules, or the end of dictatorships, in a sample of developed and emerging economies. These policy changes are associated with signiﬁcant ﬂuctuations in output. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks cause movements in output and unemployment. To quantify the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-11

Working Paper
Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare
Berger, David W.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Mongey, Simon (2022-04-06)
It has long been argued that a minimum wage could alleviate efficiency losses from monopsony power. In a general equilibrium framework that quantitatively replicates results from recent empirical studies, we find higher minimum wages can improve welfare, but most welfare gains stem from redistribution rather than efficiency. Our model features oligopsonistic labor markets with heterogeneous workers and firms and yields analytical expressions that characterize the mechanisms by which minimum wages can improve efficiency, and how these deteriorate at higher minimum wages. We provide a method to ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 058

Working Paper
The Cross-Section of Labor Leverage and Equity Returns
Donangelo, Andres; Gourio, François; Kehrig, Matthias; Palacios, Miguel (2017-09-04)
Using a standard production model, we demonstrate theoretically that, even if labor is fully flexible, it generates a form of operating leverage if (a) wages are smoother than productivity and (b) the capital-labor elasticity of substitution is strictly less than one. Our model supports using labor share?the ratio of labor expenses to value added?as a proxy for labor leverage. We show evidence for conditions (a) and (b), and we demonstrate the economic significance of labor leverage: High labor-share firms have operating profits that are more sensitive to shocks, and they have higher expected ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-22

Working Paper
Measuring Labor Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19
Duarte, Joao B.; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Brinca, Pedro (2021-07)
We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of shocks across sectors. Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the drop in the aggregate growth rate of hours in March and April 2020 are attributable to labor supply. We validate our estimates of supply shocks by showing that they are correlated with ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-011

Journal Article
Women without a College Degree, Especially Minority Mothers, Face a Steeper Road to Recovery
Tuzemen, Didem (2021-08-12)
Didem Tüzemen documents changes in the labor force participation rates of prime-age individuals across sex, education level, and race and ethnicity during the pandemic-induced downturn and subsequent recovery. Her analysis yields three key findings. First, prime-age women without a bachelor’s degree experienced greater deteriorations in their labor force participation and employment during the recession than all other prime-age individuals, and their labor force participation and employment rates are still well below their pre-pandemic levels. Second, Hispanic prime-age women without a ...
Economic Review , Volume 106 , Issue no.3 , Pages 5-23

Journal Article
Women Are Driving the Recent Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation
Tuzemen, Didem; Tran, Thao (2019-12-18)
The labor force participation rate of prime-age individuals (age 25 to 54) in the United States declined dramatically during and after the Great Recession. While the rate remains below its pre-recession level, it has been increasing steadily since 2015. We examine how different demographic groups have contributed to this rebound and find that college-educated women have made the largest contribution to the recent recovery in the prime-age labor force participation rate.
Economic Bulletin , Issue Dec 18, 2019 , Pages 4

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