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Working Paper
Re‐assessing the Spatial Mismatch Hypothesis
Card, David; Rothstein, Jesse; Yi, Moises (2025-10-31)
We use detailed location information from the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics (LEHD) database to develop new evidence on the effects of spatial mismatch on the relative earnings of Black workers in large US cities. We classify workplaces by the size of the pay premiums they offer in a two‐way fixed effects model, providing a simple metric for defining “good” jobs. We show that: (a) Black workers earn nearly the same average wage premiums as whites; (b) in most cities Black workers live closer to jobs, and closer to good jobs, than do whites; (c) Black workers typically ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 116

Working Paper
Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Ratner, David; Chung, Hess T.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; Fallick, Bruce (2015-01-06)
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers? and businesses? perceptions. The resulting labor market conditions index (LMCI) is a useful tool for gauging the change in labor market conditions. In addition, the model provides a way to organize discussions of the signal value of different labor market indicators in situations when they might be sending diverse signals. The model takes the greatest signal ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1438

Working Paper
The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Van Patten, Diana (2025-04-11)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of Bretton Woods capital controls on global economic activity. It applies a three-region DSGE model of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) that measures capital controls using observed regional consumption growth differences. We find sizable controls during Bretton Woods that prevented ROW capital from flowing to the U.S., and which reduced U.S. welfare and raised ROW welfare. By preventing capital flight in developing economies, we find that Bretton Woods controls promoted the U.S. foreign policy objective of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-042

Journal Article
Distribution of Credit Risk Among Providers of Mortgages to Lower-Income and Minority Homebuyers
Surette, Brian J.; Passmore, Wayne; Canner, Glenn B. (1996-12)
Which institutions bear the credit risk for mortgage lending to lower-income and minority borrowers and in lower-income and predominantly minority neighborhoods? In seeking to answer those questions, the authors went beyond looking at mortgage credit risk in terms of numbers or amounts of loans and developed measures based on factors that affect the riskiness of loans, including loan-to-value ratios and associated default and loss severity rates. In 1995, a nonprofit government mortgage insurer, the Federal Housing Administration, was the major bearer of credit risk for mortgage lending to ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 82 , Issue 12 , Pages pp. 1077-1102

Working Paper
Why Is Mommy So Stressed? Estimating the Immediate Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Parental Attachment to the Labor Market and the Double Bind of Mothers
Heggeness, Misty (2020-06-19)
I examine the impact of the COVID-19 shock on parents’ labor supply during the initial stages of the pandemic. Using difference-in-difference approaches and monthly panel data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), I compare labor market attachment, non-work activity, hours worked, and earnings and wages of those in areas with early school closures and stay-in-place orders with those in areas with delayed or no pandemic closures. While there was no immediate impact on detachment or unemployment, mothers with jobs in early closure states were 53.2 percent more likely than mothers in late ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 33

Working Paper
Endogenous Labor Supply in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model: Nominal versus Real Rigidities
Cairó, Isabel; Chung, Hess T.; Ferrante, Francesco; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina; Morales-Jimenez, Camilo; Pfajfar, Damjan (2023-11-03)
The deep deterioration in the labor market during the Great Recession, the subsequent slow recovery, and the missing disinflation are hard to reconcile for standard macroeconomic models. We develop and estimate a New-Keynesian model with financial frictions, search and matching frictions in the labor market, and endogenous intensive and extensive labor supply decisions. We conclude that the estimated combination of the low degree of nominal wage rigidities and high degree of real wage rigidities, together with the small role of pre-match costs relative to post-match costs, are key in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-069

Working Paper
Measuring Sectoral Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19
Brinca, Pedro; Duarte, Joao B.; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-10)
We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to historically large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of shocks across sectors. Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the drop in the aggregate growth rate of hours in March and April 2020 are attributable to labor supply. We validate our estimates of supply shocks by showing that they are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-011

Working Paper
Shocks and Adjustments
Nechio, Fernanda; Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Jordà, Òscar (2013)
We develop a multisector model in which capital and labor are free to move across firms within each sector, but cannot move across sectors. To isolate the role of sectoral specificity, we compare our model with otherwise identical multisector economies with either economy-wide factor markets (as in Chari et al. 2000) or firm-specific factor markets (as in Woodford 2005). Sectoral specificity induces within-sector strategic substitutability and across-sector strategic complementarity in price setting. Our model can produce either more or less monetary non-neutrality than those other two ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-32

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