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Working Paper
Measuring Sectoral Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19
Duarte, Joao B.; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Brinca, Pedro (2020-05)
We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak, by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages and applying the methodology proposed by Baumeister and Hamilton (2015). Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the 16.24 percentage point drop in the growth rate of hours worked in April 2020 are attributable to supply. Most sectors were subject to historically large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April 2020, but there is substantial heterogeneity in the size of these ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-011

Working Paper
The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness
Rubinton, Hannah; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Marks, Cassandra; Isaacson, Maggie (2024-11-20)
During the COVID-19 pandemic, there were unprecedented shortfalls in immigration. Concurrently, as the economy recovered, the labor market became tight, with the number of vacancies per unemployed worker reaching two, more than twice its pre-pandemic average. In this article, we investigate whether these two trends are connected. We find no evidence to support the hypothesis that the immigration shortfalls caused the tight labor market, for two main reasons. First, while the immigration deficit peaked at about two million workers, this number had largely recovered by February 2022, just as ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-003

Report
An Assignment Model of Knowledge Diffusion and Income Inequality
Luttmer, Erzo G. J. (2015-03-27)
Randomness in individual discovery disperses productivities, whereas learning from others keeps productivities together. Long-run growth and persistent earnings inequality emerge when these two mechanisms for knowledge accumulation are combined. This paper considers an economy in which those with more useful knowledge can teach others, with competitive markets assigning students to teachers. In equilibrium, students with an ability to learn quickly are assigned to teachers with the most productive knowledge. This sorting on ability implies large differences in earnings distributions ...
Staff Report , Paper 509

Journal Article
KC Fed LMCI Implies the Labor Market Is Closer to a Full Recovery than the Unemployment Rate Alone Suggests
Glover, Andrew; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2021-10-19)
By consolidating information from a broad range of labor market variables, the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) provide a consistent gauge of labor market tightness. Adjusting the unemployment rate to incorporate information from the LMCI suggests the labor market is closer to a full recovery than the unemployment rate alone implies.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 19, 2021 , Pages 3

Working Paper
Bretton Woods and the Reconstruction of Europe
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Van Patten, Diana (2019-10-13)
The Bretton Woods international financial system, which was in place from roughly 1949 to 1973, is the most significant modern policy experiment to attempt to simultaneously manage international payments, international capital flows, and international currency values. This paper uses an international macroeconomic accounting methodology to study the Bretton Woods system and finds that it: (1) significantly distorted both international and domestic capital markets and hence the accumulation and allocation of capital; (2) significantly slowed the reconstruction of Europe, albeit while limiting ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-30

Journal Article
KC Fed LMCI Suggests Recent Inflation Is Not Due to the Tight Labor Market
Glover, Andrew; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2021-10-20)
A tight labor market tends to raise wages and lower unemployment, but an overly tight labor market can cause inflation. Labor market momentum, as measured by the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI), can signal whether the current level of activity in labor markets is inflationary.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 20, 2021 , Pages 4

Working Paper
Where Did the Workers Go? The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness
Rubinton, Hannah; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Marks, Cassandra; Isaacson, Maggie (2024-01)
During the COVID pandemic there were unprecedented shortfalls in immigration. At the same time, during the economic recovery, the labor market was tight, with the number of vacancies per unemployed worker reaching 2.5, more than twice its pre-pandemic average. In this paper, we investigate whether these two trends are linked. We do not find evidence to support the hypothesis that the immigration shortfalls caused the tight labor market for two reasons. First, at the peak, we were missing about 2 million immigrant workers, but this number had largely recovered by February 2022 just as the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-003

Working Paper
The Cross-Section of Labor Leverage and Equity Returns
Donangelo, Andres; Gourio, François; Kehrig, Matthias; Palacios, Miguel (2017-09-04)
Using a standard production model, we demonstrate theoretically that, even if labor is fully flexible, it generates a form of operating leverage if (a) wages are smoother than productivity and (b) the capital-labor elasticity of substitution is strictly less than one. Our model supports using labor share?the ratio of labor expenses to value added?as a proxy for labor leverage. We show evidence for conditions (a) and (b), and we demonstrate the economic significance of labor leverage: High labor-share firms have operating profits that are more sensitive to shocks, and they have higher expected ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-22

Working Paper
The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts
Barlevy, Gadi; Hobijn, Bart; Faberman, R. Jason; Sahin, Aysegul (2023-10)
We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1960 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-38

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