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Discussion Paper
AI and the Labor Market: Will Firms Hire, Fire, or Retrain?
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Emanuel, Natalia; Hyman, Benjamin (2024-09-04)
The rapid rise in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to dramatically change the labor market, and indeed possibly even the nature of work itself. However, how firms are adjusting their workforces to accommodate this emerging technology is not yet clear. Our August regional business surveys asked manufacturing and service firms special topical questions about their use of AI, and how it is changing their workforces. Most firms that report expected AI use in the next six months plan to retrain their workforces, with far fewer reporting adjustments to planned headcounts.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240904b

Working Paper
Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data
Cajner, Tomaz; Crane, Leland D.; Decker, Ryan A.; Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian; Kurz, Christopher J. (2019-09-05)
This paper combines information from two sources of U.S. private payroll employment to increase the accuracy of real-time measurement of the labor market. The sources are the Current Employment Statistics (CES) from BLS and microdata from the payroll processing firm ADP. We briefly describe the ADP-derived data series, compare it to the BLS data, and describe an exercise that benchmarks the data series to an employment census. The CES and the ADP employment data are each derived from roughly equal-sized samples. We argue that combining CES and ADP data series reduces the measurement error ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-065

Working Paper
Organizations, Skills, and Wage Inequality
Pinheiro, Roberto; Tasci, Murat (2017-05-05)
We extend an on-the-job search framework in order to allow firms to hire workers with different skills and skills to interact with firms? total factor productivity (TFP). Our model implies that more productive firms are larger, pay higher wages, and hire more workers at all skill levels and proportionately more at higher skill types, matching key stylized facts. We calibrate the model using five educational attainment levels as proxies for skills and estimate nonparametrically firm-skill output from the wage distributions for different educational levels. We consider two periods in time (1985 ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1706

Working Paper
Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Mertens, Karel (2021-02-25)
Based on novel survey data, we document the evolution of commuting behavior in the U.S. over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Work from home (WFH) increased sharply and persistently after the outbreak, and much more so among some workers than others. Using theory and evidence, we argue that the observed heterogeneity in WFH transitions is consistent with potentially more permanent changes to work arrangements in some occupations, and not just temporary substitution in response to greater health risks. Consistent with increased WFH adoption, many more – especially higher-educated – ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017

Discussion Paper
The (Modest) Rebound in Manufacturing Jobs
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2019-02-04)
The United States lost 5.7 million manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010, reducing the nation?s manufacturing employment base by nearly a third. These job losses and their causes have been well documented in the popular press and in academic circles. Less well recognized is the modest yet significant rebound in manufacturing jobs that has been underway for several years. Indeed, employment in the manufacturing industry began to stabilize in 2010, and the nation has added nearly 1 million jobs since then. Although modest in magnitude, this uptick in manufacturing jobs represents the longest ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190204

Discussion Paper
Job Ladders and Careers
Ozkan, Serdar; Brendan Moore; Karahan, Fatih (2019-10-08)
Workers in the United States experience vast differences in lifetime earnings. Individuals in the 90th percentile earn around seven times more than those in the 10th percentile, and those in the top percentile earn almost twenty times more. A large share of these differences arise over the course of people’s careers. What accounts for these vastly different outcomes in the labor market? Why do some individuals experience much steeper earnings profiles than others? Previous research has shown that the “job ladder”—in which workers obtain large pay increases when they switch to better ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191008

Working Paper
The Labor Market Impact of Covid-19 on Asian Americans
Zhang, Jing; de Mena, Chris; Qin, Suvy (2023-03-08)
Asian Americans faced a disproportionately larger surge in unemployment rates than other racial and ethnic groups during the Covid-19 pandemic. While existing literature typically examines labor demand channels to explain this, we instead explore a labor supply channel. Our hypothesis is that Asian Americans are more cautious about Covid-19 infections and thus more selective about job opportunities, contributing to their higher unemployment rate than other groups. Analysis of cellphone data during the pandemic indicates that non-work mobility significantly decreased in areas with larger Asian ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-10

Working Paper
Firms, Skills, and Wage Inequality
Pinheiro, Roberto; Tasci, Murat (2019-04-19)
We present a model with search frictions and heterogeneous agents that allows us to decompose the overall increase in US wage inequality in the last 30 years into its within- and between-firm and skill components. We calibrate the model to evaluate how much of the overall rise in wage inequality and its components is explained by different channels. Output distribution per firm-skill pair more than accounts for the observed increase over this period. Parametric identification implies that the worker-specific component is responsible for 85 percent of this, compared to 15 percent that is ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-06R

Working Paper
On the Importance of Household versus Firm Credit Frictions in the Great Recession
Pastorino, Elena; Lopez, Pierlauro; Midrigan, Virgiliu; Kehoe, Patrick J. (2020-09-25)
Although a credit tightening is commonly recognized as a key determinant of the Great Recession, to date, it is unclear whether a worsening of credit conditions faced by households or by firms was most responsible for the downturn. Some studies have suggested that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively the most important one. Many others contend that the firm-side channel played a crucial role. We propose a model in which both channels are present and explicitly formalized. Our analysis indicates that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively more relevant than the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-28

Working Paper
Work, Poverty, and Social Benefits Over the Past Three Decades
Barrow, Lisa; Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore; Rivera, Bea (2024-10-10)
Understanding the evolving interactions between employment, social benefits, and families' well-being is key to designing better policies to both protect families and foster economic growth. Employment both overall and among those living in low-income families has been on a downward trajectory across the last three decades. One notable exception is that low-income women with children were increasingly likely to work between 1992 and 1999 in the aftermath of large changes to social safety net programs to provide more incentives and rewards for work. Since then, low-income women with children ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-22

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