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Working Paper
Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth
Dotsey, Michael; Li, Wenli; Yang, Fang (2019-03-21)
We examine the role of demographics and changing industrial policies in ac- counting for the rapid rise in household savings and in per capita output growth in China since the mid-1970s. The demographic changes come from reductions in the fertility rate and increases in the life expectancy, while the industrial policies take many forms. These policies cause important structural changes; first benefiting private labor-intensive firms by incentivizing them to increase their share of employment, and later on benefiting capital-intensive firms resulting in an increasing share of capital devoted ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-21

Working Paper
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies, and Chinese Economic Growth
Dotsey, Michael; Li, Wenli; Yang, Fang (2022-06-27)
We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine the demographic transition and industrial policies in contributing to China’s economic growth between 1976 and 2015. We find that the demographic transition and industrial policy changes by themselves account for a large fraction of the rise in household and corporate savings relative to total output and the rise in the country’s per capita output growth. Importantly, their interactions also lead to a sizable fraction of the increases in savings since the late 1980s and reduce growth after 2010. A novel and important factor that ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-17

Working Paper
Impact of first-birth career interruption on earnings: evidence from administrative data
Hotchkiss, Julie L.; Walker, Mary Beth; Pitts, M. Melinda (2014-11-01)
This paper uses unique administrative data to expand the understanding of the role women's intermittency decisions play in the determination of their wages. We demonstrate that treating intermittency as exogenous significantly overstates its impact. The intermittency penalty also increases in the education level of the woman. The penalty for a woman with a high school degree with an average amount of intermittency during six years after giving birth to her first child is roughly half the penalty for a college graduate. We also demonstrate the value of using an index to capture multiple ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-23

Working Paper
The Impact of Car Pollution on Infant and Child Health: Evidence from Emissions Cheating
Alexander, Diane; Schwandt, Hannes (2019-06-13)
Car exhaust is a major source of air pollution, but little is known about its impacts on population health. We exploit the dispersion of emissions-cheating diesel cars?which secretly polluted up to 150 times as much as gasoline cars?across the United States from 2008-2015 as a natural experiment to measure the health impact of car pollution. Using the universe of vehicle registrations, we demonstrate that a 10 percent cheating-induced increase in car exhaust increases rates of low birth weight and acute asthma attacks among children by 1.9 and 8.0 percent, respectively. These health impacts ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2019-4

Working Paper
Why the Apple Doesn't Fall Far: Understanding Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital
Devereux, Paul; Salvanes, Kjell; Black, Sandra E. (2004-07-01)
Parents with higher education levels have children with higher education levels. However, is this because parental education actually changes the outcomes of children, suggesting an important spillover of education policies, or is it merely that more able individuals who have higher education also have more able children? This paper proposes to answer this question with a unique data set from Norway. Using the reform of the education system that was implemented in different municipalities at different times in the 1960s as an instrument for parental education, we find little evidence of a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2004-12

Working Paper
The Impact of State Paid Leave Laws on Firms and Establishments: Evidence from the First Three States
Butcher, Kristin F.; Civril, Deniz; Pekkala Kerr, Sari (2024-04)
We use the Longitudinal Business Database to examine the impact of state-level paid parental leave laws in California, New Jersey, and Rhode Island on firms. Our main estimation strategy uses multi-unit firms and compares within-firm changes in outcomes for establishments in treated and untreated states. We find that paid parental leave laws reduce employment in firms’ establishments in treated states. We investigate heterogeneity of the effects by pre-mandate share of workers in an industry that were women, and find that there is no systematic evidence that firms reduce employment more in ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2024-12

Journal Article
Intergenerational Mobility and the Effects of Parental Education, Time Investment, and Income on Children’s Educational Attainment
Soytas, Mehmet A.; Gayle, George-Levi; Golan, Limor (2018)
This article analyzes the mechanisms through which parents? and children?s education are linked. It estimates the causal effect of parental education, parental time with children, and parental income during early childhood on the educational outcomes of children. Estimating the causal effects of time with children, income, and parental education is challenging because parental time with children is usually unavailable in many datasets and because of the problem of endogeneity of parental income, time with children, and education. The authors, therefore, use an instrumental variables approach ...
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 3 , Pages 281-95

Cedar Valley Kids: Addressing Local Childcare Needs Through Community Collaboration and Employer Partnerships
Ingram, Dustin; Castro, Maria (2024-06)
As part of the Chicago Fed’s Spotlight on Childcare and the Labor Market, we describe the Black Hawk County Child Care Coalition—a burgeoning alliance of community partners in northeast Iowa working to create a local solution for a local challenge. We also explain what went into recently launching the Cedar Valley Kids (CVK) childcare facility in Black Hawk County—the culmination of years of effort by the coalition to help address local childcare shortages in the wider six-county region.
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