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Report
Gender roles and medical progress
Albanesi, Stefania; Olivetti, Claudia (2015-03-01)
Maternal mortality was the second-leading cause of death for women in childbearing years up until the mid-1930s in the United States. For each death, twenty times as many mothers were estimated to suffer pregnancy-related conditions, often leading to severe and prolonged disablement. Poor maternal health made it particularly hard for mothers to engage in market work. Between 1930 and 1960, there was a remarkable reduction in maternal mortality and morbidity, thanks to medical advances. We argue that these medical advances, by enabling women to reconcile work and motherhood, were essential for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 720

Report
The role of start-ups in structural transformation
Karahan, Fatih; Sahin, Aysegul; Dent, Robert C.; Pugsley, Benjamin (2016-01-01)
The U.S. economy has been going through a striking structural transformation?the secular reallocation of employment across sectors?over the past several decades. We propose a decomposition framework to assess the contributions of various margins of firm dynamics to this shift. Using firm-level data, we find that at least 50 percent of the adjustment has been taking place along the entry margin, owing to sectors receiving shares of start-up employment that differ from their overall employment shares. The rest is mostly the result of life cycle differences across sectors. Declining overall ...
Staff Reports , Paper 762

Discussion Paper
Searching for Higher Wages
Kapon, Samuel; Topa, Giorgio; Pilossoph, Laura; Sahin, Aysegul; Armona, Luis (2015-09-02)
Since the peak of the recession, the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 5 percentage points, and observers continue to focus on whether and when this decline will lead to robust wage growth. Typically, in the wake of such a decline, real wages grow since there is more competition for workers among potential employers. While this relationship has historically been quite informative, real wage growth more recently has not been commensurate with observed declines in the unemployment rate.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150902

Discussion Paper
Waiting for Recovery: New York Schools and the Aftermath of the Great Recession
Livingston, Max; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2013-09-23)
A key institution that was significantly affected by the Great Recession is the school system, which plays a crucial role in building human capital and shaping the country’s economic future. To prevent major cuts to education, the federal government allocated $100 billion to schools as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), commonly known as the stimulus package. However, the stimulus has wound down while many sectors of the economy are still struggling, leaving state and local governments with budget squeezes. In this post, we present some key findings on how ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130923a

Working Paper
Failing Just Fine: Assessing Careers of Venture Capital-backed Entrepreneurs via a Non-Wage Measure
Amornsiripanitch, Natee; Gompers, Paul; Hu, George; Abbott, Graham J.; Levinson, Will; Mukharlyamov, Vladimir (2023-08-28)
This paper proposes a non-pecuniary measure of career achievement: seniority. Based on a database of over 130 million resumes, this metric exploits the variation in how long it takes to attain job titles. When non-monetary factors influence career choice, assessing career attainment via non-wage measures, such as seniority, has significant advantages. Accordingly, we use our seniority measure to study labor market outcomes of VC-backed entrepreneurs. Would-be founders experience accelerated career trajectories prior to founding, significantly outperforming graduates from same-tier colleges ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-17

Discussion Paper
The Class of 2015 Might Have a Little Better Luck Finding a Good Job
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2015-05-15)
With the college graduation season well under way, a new crop of freshly minted graduates is entering the job market and many bright young minds are hoping to land a good first job. It?'s no wonder if they are approaching the job hunt with some trepidation. For a number of years now, recent college graduates have been struggling to find good jobs. However, the labor market for college graduates is improving. After declining for nearly two years, openings for jobs requiring a college degree have picked up since last summer. Not only has this increase in the demand for educated workers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150515

Discussion Paper
Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?
Rich, Robert W.; Bram, Jason; Abel, Joshua (2013-09-04)
Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s another useful dimension to consumer confidence that’s often overlooked: its ability to signal incipient developments in the job market. In this post, we look at trends in a particular measure of consumer confidence—the Present Situation Index component of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—over the past thirty-five years and show that they’re closely associated with ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130904

Discussion Paper
Who is More Likely to Default on Student Loans?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Jiang, Michelle; Gorton, Nicole; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-11-20)
This post seeks to understand how educational characteristics (school type and selectivity, graduation status, major) and family background relate to the incidence of student loan default. Student indebtedness has grown substantially, increasing by 170 percent between 2006 and 2016. In addition, the fraction of students who default on those loans has grown considerably. Of students who left college in 2010 and 2011, 28 percent defaulted on their student loans within five years, compared with 19 percent of those who left school in 2005 and 2006. Since defaulting on student loans can have ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20171120

Discussion Paper
The “Cadillac Tax”: Driving Firms to Change Their Plans?
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Bram, Jason; Dussault, Nicole (2016-02-29)
Since the 1940s, employers that provide health insurance for their employees can deduct the cost as a business expense, but the government does not treat the value of that coverage as taxable income. This exclusion of employer-provided health insurance from taxable income?$248 billion in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office?is a huge subsidy for health spending. Many economists cite the distortionary effects of this tax subsidy as an important reason for why U.S. health care spending accounts for such a large share of the economy and why spending historically has grown so ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160229

Working Paper
Bond Insurance and Public Sector Employment
Amornsiripanitch, Natee (2022-02-07)
This paper uses a unique data set of local governments’ bond issuance, expenditure, and employment to study the impact of the monoline insurance industry’s demise on local governments’ operations. To show causality, I use an instrumental variable approach that exploits persistent insurance relationships and the cross-sectional variation in insurers’ exposure to high-quality residential mortgage-backed securities. Governments associated with ailing insurers issued less debt, cut expenditures, and hired fewer workers. These effects are persistent. Partial equilibrium calculations show ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-03

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