Search Results
Working Paper
Industrial Policy and Capital Misallocation in Exporting
Trade financing through export credit agencies is a key tool of modern industrial policy. We provide a theory to evaluate its welfare effects, and we study its causal impact on trade, firm investment, and capital misallocation by using the effective shutdown of the US export credit agency from 2015 to 2019 as a natural experiment. First, we show that the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has large causal effects: comparing industries exposed and unexposed to the shutdown, we find that exposed industries experience a product-level export reduction of approximately $4.49 for each $1 lost in EXIM ...
Report
The Main Street Lending Program
The Main Street Lending Program was created to support credit to small and medium-sized businesses and nonprofit organizations that were harmed by the pandemic, particularly those that were unsupported by other pandemic-response programs. It was the most direct involvement in the business loan market by the Federal Reserve since the 1930s and 1940s. Main Street operated by buying 95 percent participations in standardized loans from lenders (mostly banks) and sharing the credit risk with them. It would end up supporting loans to more than 2,400 borrowers and co-borrowers across the United ...
Report
Allocation and Employment Effect of the Paycheck Protection Program
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was a large and unprecedented small-business support program enacted as a response to the COVID-19 crisis in the United States. The PPP administered almost $800 billion in loans and grants to small businesses through the banking system. However, there is still limited consensus on its overall effect on employment. This paper explores why it is challenging to estimate the effect of the PPP. To do so, we first focus on the timing of the allocation of PPP funds across regions and firms. Counties less affected by COVID-19 and with a larger presence of ...
Report
How the Student Loan Payment Pause Affected Borrowers’ Credit Access and Credit Use
This brief examines how the pandemic-related, 43-month moratorium on federal student loan payments and interest accruals affected borrowers’ credit card limits and balances. The pause freed up an average of $280 a month for each of the 17 million student loan holders in active repayment, and it included a provision that erased previous defaults on student loans.
Working Paper
Bank Incentives and the Effect of the Paycheck Protection Program
We assess the role of banks in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a large and unprecedented small-business support program instituted as a response to the COVID-19 crisis in the United States. In 2020, the PPP administered more than $525 billion in loans and grants to small businesses through the banking system. First, we provide empirical evidence of heterogeneity in the allocation of PPP loans. Firms that were larger and less affected by the COVID-19 crisis received loans earlier, even in a within-bank analysis. Second, we develop a model of PPP allocation through banks that is ...
Working Paper
Optimal Allocation of Relief Funds: The Case of the Paycheck Protection Program
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was a large and unprecedented small-business support program that allocated $800 billion in loans and grants to small businesses following the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. This paper explores the optimal allocation of funds across firms and the distortions caused by allocating these funds through banks. We show that it can be optimal to allocate funds to the least or most affected firms depending on the underlying distribution of the shock that firms face, the firms’ financial position, and the total budget available for the program. In the model, as ...
Working Paper
What Do 25 Million Records of Small Businesses Say about the Effects of the PPP?
We utilize Dun & Bradstreet data on firms’ financial condition to examine the allocation of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans and their impact. Three main findings emerge. First, firms in better financial condition prior to the COVID outbreak were advantaged in the allocation of PPP loans. Second, firms’ financial condition improved significantly and persistently after receiving a loan, and this effect was more pronounced among the smaller and less financially sound firms. Third, we demonstrate empirically that the heterogeneity in firms’ financial condition must be accounted for ...
Working Paper
The Main Street Lending Program: Who Borrowed and How Have They Benefited?
The Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) was established by the Federal Reserve to supply credit to small and, especially, midsize businesses so they could weather COVID-19–induced disruptions. This study uses Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) data on the financial condition and overall viability of firms to examine the characteristics of MSLP borrowers and their performance after receiving a loan relative to the performance of their peers. Estimates show that, even when differences in firms' industries and geographic regions are taken into account, a firm was more likely to borrow from the MSLP if it ...
Working Paper
The Tail That Wagged the Dog: What Explains the Persistent Employment Effect of the 10-Day PPP Funding Delay?
This study explores the mechanisms explaining the large, persistent effect of the 10-day funding delay in the 2020 Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) on employment recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic, as estimated by Doniger and Kay (2021). We find that the top 1 percent of urban counties by population fully account for the significant effect of the delay on county-level employment. The strong correlation between worse loan delay and slower employment growth in these counties is due to a factor commonly omitted from analyses: The nature of business and the high rate of human interactions in ...
Working Paper
Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises
We study optimal bailout policies amidst banking and sovereign crises. Our model features sovereign borrowing with limited commitment, where domestic banks hold government debt and extend credit to the private sector. Bank capital shocks can trigger banking crises, prompting the government to consider extending guarantees over bank assets. This poses a trade-off: Larger bailouts relax financial frictions and increase output, but increase fiscal needs and default risk (creating a ‘diabolic loop’). Optimal bailouts exhibit clear properties. The fraction of banking losses the bailouts cover ...