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Migration, Congestion Externalities, and the Evaluation of Spatial Investments
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Dinkelman, Taryn
(2015-01-09)
The direct benefits of infrastructure in developing countries can be large, but if new infrastructure induces in-migration, congestion of other local publicly provided goods may offset the direct benefits. Using the example of rural household electrification in South Africa, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for migration when evaluating welfare gains of spatial programs. We also provide a practical approach to computing welfare gains that does not rely on land prices. We develop a location choice model that incorporates missing land markets and allows for congestion in local land. ...
Staff Report
, Paper 506
Working Paper
The Incidence of Fuel-Price Shocks and Tax Holidays: Evidence from the 2026 Oil Shock
Bradt, Jacob T.; Taylor, Reid
(2026-08-06)
We measure the distributional incidence of U.S. motor-fuel tax holidays using transaction records from ∼13,200 gasoline stations linked to neighborhood income. The 2026 Iran War raised gasoline expenditure shares 2.9 times more in the lowest- than highest-income census tracts. Pre-shock exposure accounts for 89% of the gap while the residual heterogeneity widens rather than offsets it. State-level tax holiday lowered retail prices but offset the same fraction (28%) of the per-gallon burden across quintiles. A counterfactual federal holiday preserves this incidence. Per-gallon relief is ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2624
Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of a Carbon Tax on Current and Future Generations
Fried, Stephie; Peterman, William B.; Novan, Kevin
(2016-04-20)
This paper examines the non-environmental welfare effects of introducing a revenue- neutral carbon tax policy. Using a life cycle model, we find that the welfare effects of the policy differ substantially for agents who are alive when the policy is enacted compared to those who are born into the new steady state with the carbon tax in place. Consistent with previous studies, we demonstrate that, for those born in the new steady state, the welfare costs are always lower when the carbon tax revenue is used to reduce an existing distortionary tax as opposed to being returned in the form of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2016-038
Working Paper
Optimal Credit Market Policy
Iacoviello, Matteo; Nunes, Ricardo; Prestipino, Andrea
(2025-05-09)
We study optimal credit market policy in a stochastic, quantitative, general equilibrium, infinite-horizon economy with collateral constraints tied to housing prices. Collateral constraints yield a competitive equilibrium that is Pareto inefficient. Taxing housing in good states and subsidizing it in recessions leads to a Pareto-improving allocation for borrowers and savers. Quantitatively, the welfare gains afforded by the optimal tax are significant. The optimal tax reduces the covariance of collateral prices with consumption, and, by doing so, it increases asset prices on average, thus ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1406
Working Paper
Recycling Carbon Tax Revenue to Maximize Welfare
Fried, Stephie; Peterman, William B.; Novan, Kevin
(2021-04-02)
This paper explores how to recycle carbon tax revenue back to households to maximize welfare. Using a general equilibrium lifecycle model calibrated to reflect the heterogeneity in the U.S. economy, we find the optimal policy uses two thirds of carbon-tax revenue to reduce the distortionary tax on capital income while the remaining one third is used to increase the progressivity of the labor-income tax. The optimal policy attains higher welfare and more equality than the lump-sum rebate approach preferred by policymakers as well as the approach originally prescribed by economists -- which ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2021-023
Report
Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability
Young, Eric R.; Benigno, Gianluca; Otrok, Christopher; Chen, Huigang; Rebucci, Alessandro
(2019-10-01)
There is a new and now large literature analyzing government policies for financial stability based on models with endogenous borrowing constraints. These normative analyses build upon the concept of constrained efficient allocation, where the social planner is constrained by the same borrowing limit that agents face. In this paper, we show that the same set of policy tools that implement the constrained efficient allocation can be used by a Ramsey planner to replicate the unconstrained allocation, thus achieving higher welfare. The constrained social planner approach may lead to inaccurate ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 899
Working Paper
The Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty
Fried, Stephie; Peterman, William B.; Novan, Kevin
(2021-03-19)
Uncertainty surrounding if and when the U.S. government will implement a federal climate policy introduces risk into the decision to invest in capital used in conjunction with fossil fuels. To quantify the macroeconomic impacts of this climate policy risk, we develop a dynamic, general equilibrium model that incorporates beliefs about future climate policy. We find that climate policy risk reduces carbon emissions by causing the capital stock to shrink and become relatively cleaner. Our results reveal, however, that a carbon tax could achieve the same reduction in emissions at less than half ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2021-018
Working Paper
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
Belfiori, Elisa; Carroll, Daniel R.; Hur, Sewon
(2024-07-16)
We study climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households, two types of goods (clean and dirty), and a climate externality from the dirty good. Using household expenditure and emissions data, we document that low-income households have higher emissions per dollar spent than high-income households, making a carbon tax regressive. We build a model that captures this fact and study climate policies that are neutral with respect to the income distribution. A central feature of these policies is that resource transfers across consumers are ruled out. We show that the constrained optimal ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 427
Report
Optimal Income Taxation: Mirrlees Meets Ramsey
Tsujiyama, Hitoshi; Heathcote, Jonathan
(2015-01-22)
What structure of income taxation maximizes the social benefits of redistribution while minimizing the social harm associated with distorting the allocation of labor input? Many authors have advocated scrapping the current tax system, which redistributes primarily via marginal tax rates that rise with income, and replacing it with a flat tax system, in which marginal tax rates are constant and redistribution is achieved via non-means-tested transfers. In this paper we compare alternative tax systems in an environment with distinct roles for public and private insurance. We evaluate ...
Staff Report
, Paper 507
Discussion Paper
What Can Undermine a Carbon Tax?
Méjean, Isabelle; Coster, Pierre; di Giovanni, Julian
(2026-01-07)
Several countries have implemented a carbon tax or cap-and-trade system to establish high carbon prices and create a disincentive for the use of fossil fuels. Essentially, the tax encourages firms to substitute toward low carbon emission energy. Costs also rise for firms down the supply chain that use production inputs with high-emission content, so the total impact of a carbon tax can be large. In practice, however, firms also have an incentive to find an offset to a carbon tax. In this post, based on our recent work, we present evidence of one such adaptation strategy. We show that French ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20260107a
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