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Working Paper
Retail Investors’ Contrarian Behavior Around News, Attention, and the Momentum Effect
Ravina, Enrichetta (2023-05-17)
Using a large panel of U.S. brokerage accounts trades and positions, we show that a large fraction of retail investors trade as contrarians after large earnings surprises, especially for loser stocks, and that such contrarian trading contributes to post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) and price momentum. Indeed, when we double-sort by momentum portfolios and retail trading flows, PEAD and momentum are only present in the top two quintiles of retail trading intensity. Finer sorts confirm the results, as do sorts by firm size and institutional ownership level. We show that the investors in ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-34

Working Paper
Your Friends, Your Credit: Social Capital Measures Derived from Social Media and the Credit Market
Bricker, Jesse; Li, Geng (2023-07)
Chetty et al. (2022a) introduced an array of social capital measures derived from Facebook friendships and found that one of these indicators, economic connectedness (EC), predicted upward income mobility well. Bricker and Li (2017) proposed the average credit score of a community's residents as an indicator of local social trust. We show in this paper that the average credit scores are robustly correlated with EC, negatively correlated with the friending-bias measure introduced in Chetty et al. (2022b), and predict economic mobility to a comparable extent after controlling for EC. The ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-048

Working Paper
Prior Fraud Exposure and Precautionary Credit Market Behavior
Blascak, Nathan; Toh, Ying Lei (2022-10-27)
This paper studies how past experiences with privacy shocks affect individuals’ take-up of precautionary behavior when faced with a new privacy shock in the context of credit markets. We focus on experiences with identity theft and data breaches, two kinds of privacy shocks that either directly lead to fraud or put an individual at an elevated risk of experiencing fraud. Using the announcement of the 2017 Equifax data breach, we show that individuals with either kind of prior fraud exposure were more likely to freeze their credit report and close credit card accounts than individuals with ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-36

Working Paper
Does it Pay to Send Multiple Pre-Paid Incentives? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
Ma, Eva; Hsu, Joanne W.; Sjoblom, Micah; Chang, Andrew C.; Bachtell, Kate (2024-04-19)
To encourage survey participation and improve sample representativeness, the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) offers an unconditional pre-paid monetary incentive and separate post-paid incentive upon survey completion. We conducted a pre-registered between-subject randomized control experiment within the 2022 SCF, with at least 1,200 households per experimental group, to examine whether changing the pre-paid incentive structure affects survey outcomes. We assess the effects of: (1) altering the total dollar value of the pre-paid incentive (“incentive effect”), (2) giving two identical ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-023

Working Paper
Personal Tax Changes and Financial Well-being: Evidence from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Dobridge, Christine L.; Hsu, Joanne W.; Zabek, Mike (2024-05-14)
We estimate the effects of personal income tax decreases on financial well-being, including qualitative subjective assessments and quantitative measures. A plausibly causal design shows that tax decreases in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act made survey respondents more likely to say they were "living comfortably" financially, with null effects at lower levels of subjective financial well-being. Estimates from a similar design using credit bureau data show that people who had larger tax decreases were modestly more likely to open new accounts, and more likely to have higher consumer credit balances. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-029

Working Paper
Credit Score Doctors
Hu, Luojia; Huang, Xing; Simonov, Andrei (2020-02-26)
We study how the existence of cutoffs in credit scores affects the behavior of homebuyers. Borrowers are more likely to purchase houses after their credit scores cross over a cutoff to qualify them for a higher credit score bin. However, the credit accounts of these individuals (crossover group) are more likely to become delinquent within four years following home purchases than the accounts of those who had stayed in the same bin (non-crossover group). The effect is not only concentrated in subprime bins, but in other bins as well. It is neither limited to pre-crisis period nor curtailed by ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-07

Working Paper
Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance
Geng, Liang; Cordell, Lawrence R.; An, Xudong; Lee, Keyoung (2021-03-02)
Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data, and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have signiﬁcantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors. A difference-in-differences analysis shows how much the pandemic has exacerbated income and racial inequalities. We then find that government and private-sector forbearance programs have mitigated these inequalities in the near term, as lower-income and minority borrowers have taken up the short-term ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-09

Working Paper
Prior Fraud Exposure and Precautionary Credit Market Behavior
Blascak, Nathan; Toh, Ying Lei (2022-11-07)
We study how past experiences with privacy shocks affect individuals’ likelihood to take precautionary behavior when faced with a new privacy shock in the context of credit markets. We focus on experiences with identity theft and data breaches, two kinds of privacy shocks that either directly lead to fraud or put an individual at an elevated risk of experiencing fraud. We show that immediately after the announcement of the 2017 Equifax data breach, individuals with either kind of prior fraud exposure were more likely to freeze their credit report and close credit card accounts than ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 22-14

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