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Working Paper
Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance
Geng, Liang; Cordell, Lawrence R.; An, Xudong; Lee, Keyoung (2021-03-02)
Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data, and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have signiﬁcantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors. A difference-in-differences analysis shows how much the pandemic has exacerbated income and racial inequalities. We then find that government and private-sector forbearance programs have mitigated these inequalities in the near term, as lower-income and minority borrowers have taken up the short-term ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-09

Working Paper
The Assessment Gap: Racial Inequalities in Property Taxation
Howard, Troup; Avenancio-León, Carlos (2020-07-06)
We use panel data covering 118 million homes in the United States, merged with geolocation detail for 75,000 taxing entities, to document a nationwide "assessment gap" which leads local governments to place a disproportionate fiscal burden on racial and ethnic minorities. We show that holding jurisdictions and property tax rates fixed, black and Hispanic residents nonetheless face a 10-13% higher tax burden for the same bundle of public services. This assessment gap arises through two channels. First, property assessments are less sensitive to neighborhood attributes than market prices are. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 34

Working Paper
Does it Pay to Send Multiple Pre-Paid Incentives? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
Ma, Eva; Hsu, Joanne W.; Sjoblom, Micah; Chang, Andrew C.; Bachtell, Kate (2024-04-19)
To encourage survey participation and improve sample representativeness, the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) offers an unconditional pre-paid monetary incentive and separate post-paid incentive upon survey completion. We conducted a pre-registered between-subject randomized control experiment within the 2022 SCF, with at least 1,200 households per experimental group, to examine whether changing the pre-paid incentive structure affects survey outcomes. We assess the effects of: (1) altering the total dollar value of the pre-paid incentive (“incentive effect”), (2) giving two identical ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-023

Working Paper
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Family Economic Well-being: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
Goodman, Sarena; Li, Gina; Moore, Kevin B.; Volz, Alice Henriques (2024-08-23)
The COVID-19 pandemic caused severe disruptions to the U.S. labor market and economic activity. We establish connections between family experiences of the pandemic, their income under normal conditions, and their later economic well-being using the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances. By their interview, one-third of families experienced net employment declines, one-third had teleworked, and one-fifth had significant COVID-19-related health events. These experiences strongly reflected families’ positions in the income distribution, with lower-income families bearing the brunt. They also ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-068

Working Paper
Credit Score Doctors
Hu, Luojia; Huang, Xing; Simonov, Andrei (2020-02-26)
We study how the existence of cutoffs in credit scores affects the behavior of homebuyers. Borrowers are more likely to purchase houses after their credit scores cross over a cutoff to qualify them for a higher credit score bin. However, the credit accounts of these individuals (crossover group) are more likely to become delinquent within four years following home purchases than the accounts of those who had stayed in the same bin (non-crossover group). The effect is not only concentrated in subprime bins, but in other bins as well. It is neither limited to pre-crisis period nor curtailed by ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-07

Working Paper
Does Access to Free Pre-Kindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply?
Ilin, Elias; Shampine, Samantha; Terry, Ellyn (2022-02-02)
In this paper, we evaluate the effects of free pre-kindergarten (pre-K) programs on the labor force participation (LFP) of mothers. We use variation in pre-K rules across all US states, including income eligibility requirements in some states. To estimate the causal effects of access to pre-K on labor supply, we exploit the panel aspect of the monthly Current Population Survey between 2002 and 2019. Specifically, we look at the change in labor market behavior of women when their child becomes age-eligible for pre-K, controlling for individual factors. We find that access to free pre-K ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-3

Working Paper
CECL Implementation and Model Risk in Uncertain Times: An Application to Consumer Finance
Canals-Cerda, Jose J. (2024-02-13)
I examine the challenges of economic forecasting and model misspecification errors confronted by financial institutions implementing the novel current expected credit loss (CECL) allowance methodology and its impact on model risk and bias in CECL projections. We document the increased sensitivity to model and macroeconomic forecasting error of the CECL framework with respect to the incurred loss framework that it replaces. An empirical application illustrates how to leverage simple machine learning (ML) strategies and statistical principles in the design of a nimble and flexible CECL modeling ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-03

Working Paper
Suitability of a County-Level Income Definition for Analysis of Lower-Income Communities
Troland, Erin; Agnes, Isabella; Dries, Ellie; Liu, Jessica; Merchant, Zofsha; Shaalan, Fatimah; Tran, Michelle; Tranfaglia, Anna; Webber, Douglas A. (2025-06-02)
This paper examines the costs and benefits of using a straightforward county-level income definition in the classification and study of lower-income communities. A definition based on population-weighted distribution of county-level median household incomes does a good job of identifying the most economically disadvantaged communities across a wide range of indicators. We show robustness to the use of different thresholds, levels of geography, and cost-of-living adjustments.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-039

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