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Working Paper
How Markets Process Macro News: The Importance of Investor Attention
Kroner, Niklas (2025-03-26)
I provide evidence that investors' attention allocation plays a critical role in how financial markets incorporate macroeconomic news. Using intraday data, I document a sharp increase in the market reaction to Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases during the 2021-2023 inflation surge. Bond yields, market-implied inflation expectations, and other asset prices exhibit significantly stronger responses to CPI surprises, while reactions to other macroeconomic announcements remain largely unchanged. The joint reactions of these asset prices point to an attention-based explanation–an interpretation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-022

Working Paper
The Effect of Student Loan Payment Burdens on Borrower Outcomes
Monarrez, Tomás; Turner, Lesley J. (2024-03-21)
Rising student loan debt and concerns over unaffordable payments provide a rationale for the broad class of “income-driven repayment” (IDR) plans for federal student loans. These plans aim to protect borrowers from delinquency, default, and resulting financial consequences by linking payments to income and providing forgiveness after a set repayment period. We estimate the causal effect of IDR payment burdens on loan repayment and schooling outcomes for several cohorts of first-time IDR applicants using a regression discontinuity design. Federal student loan borrowers who are not required ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-08

Working Paper
One Month Longer, One Month Later? Prepayments in the Auto Loan Market
Katcher, Bradley; Li, Geng; Mezza, Alvaro; Ramos, Steve (2024-07-17)
We document a secular trend of increasing auto loan maturity from 30 months to over 70 months during the past 50 years, partly reflecting improved vehicle durability. Analyzing over half of the auto loans originated during the past 16 years, we find that longer-maturity new car loans have significantly higher interest rates with a yield curve much steeper than comparable-maturity Treasury securities. In addition, we show that the majority of auto loans were prepaid, including loans of zero-interest, and that many prepaying borrowers could have paid less interest by choosing loans of a shorter ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-056

Working Paper
Uncovering Retail Trading in Bitcoin: The Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Checks
Divakaruni, Anantha; Zimmerman, Peter (2021-07-16)
In April 2020, the US government sent economic impact payments (EIPs) directly to households, as part of its measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic. We characterize these stimulus checks as a wealth shock for households and examine their effect on retail trading in Bitcoin. We find a significant increase in Bitcoin buy trades for the modal EIP amount of $1,200. The rise in Bitcoin trading is highest among individuals without families and at exchanges catering to nonprofessional investors. We estimate that the EIP program has a significant but modest effect on the US dollar–Bitcoin ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-13

Newsletter
How FAIR Plans Confronted Redlining in America
Nwokolo, Ramzee (2023-09)
Access to financial services, including insurance, is vital for the growth and development of communities. Without banks issuing residential mortgages and business loans, it is extremely difficult for people to purchase homes and grow their businesses. Without property insurance, banks will be reluctant to provide such loans. Thus, the inability to access property insurance makes communities more vulnerable to cycles of disinvestment and decline. In this Chicago Fed Letter, I examine the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plans, how they addressed the issues of insurance ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume No 484 , Pages 8

Working Paper
Improving the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
von Hafften, Alexander H.; Passmore, Wayne (2017-08-25)
The 30-year fixed-rate fully amortizing mortgage (or "traditional fixed-rate mortgage") was a substantial innovation when first developed during the Great Depression. However, it has three major flaws. First, because homeowner equity accumulates slowly during the first decade, homeowners are essentially renting their homes from lenders. With so little equity accumulation, many lenders require large down payments. Second, in each monthly mortgage payment, homeowners substantially compensate capital markets investors for the ability to prepay. The homeowner might have better uses for this ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-090

Working Paper
The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations
Delgado, Martha Elena; Herreño, Juan; Hofstetter, Marc; Pedemonte, Mathieu (2024-03-25)
We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the expected future exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in an open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by the local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. The treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate and inflation expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we find ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-07

Working Paper
It's Not Who You Know—It's Who Knows You: Employee Social Capital and Firm Performance
Choi, Lyungmae; Wang, Jessie Jiaxu; Cho, DuckKi (2023-04-13)
We show that the social capital embedded in employees' networks contributes to firm performance. Using novel, individual-level network data, we measure a firm's social capital derived from employees' connections with external stakeholders. Our directed network data allow for differentiating those connections that know the employee and those that the employee knows. Results show that firms with more employee social capital perform better; the positive effect stems primarily from employees being known by others. We provide causal evidence exploiting the enactment of a government regulation that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-020

Report
The Financial Consequences of Undiagnosed Memory Disorders
Gresenz, Carole Roan; Mitchell, Jean M; Rodriguez, Belicia; Turner, R. Scott; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2024-05-01)
We examine the effect of undiagnosed memory disorders on credit outcomes using nationally representative credit reporting data merged with Medicare data. Years prior to eventual diagnosis, average credit scores begin to weaken and payment delinquency begins to increase, overall and for mortgage and credit card accounts specifically. Credit outcomes consistently deteriorate over the quarters leading up to diagnosis. The harmful financial effects of undiagnosed memory disorders exacerbate the already substantial financial pressure households face upon diagnosis of a memory disorder. Our ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1106

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