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Discussion Paper
Assisting Firms during a Crisis: Benefits and Costs
Wall, Larry D. (2020-08-10)
Public and private efforts to reduce COVID-19 infection levels have led to a sharp drop in economic activity around the world. In an attempt to mitigate the damage to businesses, governments around the world have implemented a variety of financial programs to help firms. These programs have been criticized as interfering with markets, providing bailouts, and creating adverse incentives. In this article, I review both the rationale for government-provided assistance and the costs of providing that assistance from the perspective of how that aid effects the likely level and volatility of ...
Policy Hub* , Paper 2020-10

Journal Article
Assisting Firms during a Crisis: Benefits and Costs
Wall, Larry D. (2020-08-10)
Public and private efforts to reduce COVID-19 infection levels have led to a sharp drop in economic activity around the world. In an attempt to mitigate the damage to businesses, governments around the world have implemented a variety of financial programs to help firms. These programs have been criticized as interfering with markets, providing bailouts, and creating adverse incentives. In this article, I review both the rationale for government-provided assistance and the costs of providing that assistance from the perspective of how that aid effects the likely level and volatility of ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2020 , Issue 10 , Pages 18

Working Paper
Villains or Scapegoats? The Role of Subprime Borrowers in Driving the U.S. Housing Boom
Gerardi, Kristopher; Liu, Haoyang; Frame, W. Scott; Conklin, James (2018-08-01)
An expansion in mortgage credit to subprime borrowers is widely believed to have been a principal driver of the 2002?06 U.S. house price boom. Contrary to this belief, we show that the house price and subprime booms occurred in different places. Counties with the largest home price appreciation between 2002 and 2006 had the largest declines in the share of purchase mortgages to subprime borrowers. We also document that the expansion in speculative mortgage products and underwriting fraud was not concentrated among subprime borrowers.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-10

Working Paper
Common Ownership Does Not Have Anti-Competitive Effects in the Airline Industry
Dennis, Patrick; Gerardi, Kristopher; Schenone, Carola (2019-07-01)
Institutional investors often own significant equity in firms that compete in the same product market. These "common owners" may have an incentive to coordinate the actions of firms that would otherwise be competing rivals, leading to anti-competitive pricing. This paper uses data on airline ticket prices to test whether common owners induce anti-competitive pricing behavior. We find little evidence to support such a hypothesis, and show that the positive relationship between average ticket prices and a commonly used measure of common ownership previously documented in the literature is ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-15

Working Paper
Managing Risk in Cards Portfolios: Risk Appetite and Limits
O'Loughlin, Caitlin; Eder, Tiffany; Labonne, Claire; Sharma, Krish (2024-02-15)
We describe an important risk management tool at financial institutions, risk appetite frameworks. We observe those frameworks for credit cards portfolios at four large banks and analyze when and why banks adjust them. The risk appetite frameworks for these banks monitor 40 to 150 metrics. We focus on metrics related to outstanding balances of which we identified 79. Overall, we find that these frameworks are sticky. Most adjustments occur during scheduled annual reviews and are relatively limited. Limit breaches are rare. Thresholds are often changed the month after a breach or after the ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper 24-01

Working Paper
Cross-Policy Risk Pricing
Shen, Leslie Sheng; Xu, Nancy R. (2026-08-01)
We show that interactions across government policies affect firms’ cost of equity capital. Exploiting the 2018–2019 U.S. tariff shocks and concurrent federal procurement spending, we find that firms facing higher tariff exposure earn higher subsequent risk premia, but this effect is substantially attenuated for firms receiving greater procurement. A one-standard-deviation increase in procurement attenuates about two-thirds of the tariff-related risk premium. Procurement is relatively more favorable for politically connected and economically vulnerable firms. Larger procurement inflows ...
Working Papers , Paper 26-13

Working Paper
Trade Wars on the Income Statement: the Effects of Tariffs on Firms
Barbiero, Omar; Sheremirov, Viacheslav; Silva, Alvaro; Stein, Hillary (2026-10-01)
We construct firm-level exposure to the 2018 and 2025 US tariffs through own imports, suppliers' imports, and foreign retaliation, and estimate their joint effects using quarterly financial statements. Exposure is widespread and travels down supply chains, reaching firms that import little themselves. In 2025, cost exposure reduced sales and cost of goods sold equally within three quarters, by about 1.2 percent for the average direct importer and 0.5 percent through suppliers. Firms at least partly passed tariffs on to prices and shrank production rather than cutting margins. Retaliation ...
Working Papers , Paper 26-15

Working Paper
Information Production, Misconduct Effort, and the Duration of Corporate Fraud
da Silva, Maximiliano; Black, Jonathan; Nilsson, Mattias; Pinheiro, Roberto (2016-06-01)
We develop and test a model linking the duration of financial fraud to information produced by auditors and analysts and efforts by managers to conceal the fraud. Our empirical results suggest fraud termination is more likely in the quarter following the release of audited financial statements, especially when reports contain explanatory language, indicating auditors? observable signals reduce fraud duration. Analyst attention increases the likelihood of fraud termination, but the marginal effect beyond the first analyst is negative, possibly due to free riding and herding behavior impairing ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1613

Working Paper
Organizational Form and Thrift Risk During the US Housing Boom and Bust
Balla, Eliana; Rosenberger, Grant; Prescott, Edward Simpson (2025-08-05)
We compare the performance of community-bank-sized mutual and stock thrifts during the housing boom of 2001-06 and the housing bust of 2007-13. During the housing bust, mutuals failed at a much lower rate than stock thrifts. To investigate this difference, we first estimate a probit model of thrift failure over the housing bust and show that this difference holds even when controlling for local economic shocks and differences in thrift characteristics. Furthermore, we find that a concentration in construction and land development loans is the only type of loan concentration that is predictive ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-18

Working Paper
Information Production, Misconduct Effort, and the Duration of Financial Misrepresentation
da Silva, Maximiliano; Black, Jonathan; Nilsson, Mattias; Pinheiro, Roberto (2016-06-01)
We examine the link between information produced by auditors and analysts and fraud duration. Using a hazard model, we analyze misstatement periods related to SEC accounting and auditing enforcement releases (AAERs) between 1982 and 2012. Results suggest that misconduct is more likely to end just after firms announce an auditor switch or issue audited financial statements, particularly when the audit report contains explanatory language. Analyst following increases the fraud termination hazard. However, increases (decreases) in analyst coverage have a negative (positive) marginal impact on ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-13R

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