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Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks
Weill, Pierre-Olivier; D'Avernas, Adrien; Eisfeldt, Andrea L.; Atkeson, Andrew (2018-06-19)
Banks' ratio of the market value to book value of their equity was close to 1 until the 1990s, then more than doubled during the 1996-2007 period, and fell again to values close to 1 after the 2008 financial crisis. Sarin and Summers (2016) and Chousakos and Gorton (2017) argue that the drop in banks' market-to-book ratio since the crisis is due to a loss in bank franchise value or profitability. In this paper we argue that banks' market-to-book ratio is the sum of two components: franchise value and the value of government guarantees. We empirically decompose the ratio between these two ...
Staff Report , Paper 567

Report
How do global banks scramble for liquidity? Evidence from the asset-backed commercial paper freeze of 2007
Afonso, Gara M.; Acharya, Viral V.; Kovner, Anna (2013-08-01)
We investigate how banks scrambled for liquidity following the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market freeze of August 2007 and its implications for corporate borrowing. Commercial banks in the United States raised dollar deposits and took advances from Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), while foreign banks had limited access to such alternative dollar funding. Relative to before the ABCP freeze and relative to their non-dollar lending, foreign banks with ABCP exposure charged higher interest rates to corporations for dollar-denominated syndicated loans. The results point to a funding risk ...
Staff Reports , Paper 623

Working Paper
Do Sustainable Investment Strategies Hedge Climate Change Risks? Evidence from Germany's Carbon Tax
Ochoa, Marcelo; Paustian, Matthias; Wilcox, Laura (2022-11-04)
It is difficult to assess the effectiveness of investment strategies that screen companies based on environmental criteria to hedge climate change risk because physical risks have not yet fully materialized and policies to combat climate change are usually widely anticipated. This paper sidesteps these limitations by analyzing the stock market response to plausibly exogenous changes in expectations about the level of a carbon tax in Germany. The risk-adjusted return on two sustainable investment approaches---screening companies based on environmental scores and on firms' carbon ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-073

Working Paper
Villains or Scapegoats? The Role of Subprime Borrowers in Driving the U.S. Housing Boom
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Frame, W. Scott; Conklin, James; Liu, Haoyang (2020-05-19)
An expansion in mortgage credit to subprime borrowers is widely believed to have been a principal driver of the 2002–2006 U.S. house price boom. By contrast, this paper documents a robust, negative correlation between the growth in the share of purchase mortgages to subprime borrowers and house price appreciation at the county-level during this time. Using two different instrumental variables approaches, we also establish causal evidence that house price appreciation lowered the share of purchase loans to subprime borrowers. Further analysis using micro-level credit bureau data shows that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013

Working Paper
Government Connections and Financial Constraints: Evidence from a Large Representative Sample of Chinese Firms
Xu, Lixin Colin; Cull, Robert; Sun, Bo; Li, Wei (2015-01-21)
We examine the role of firms' government connections, defined by government intervention in CEO appointment and the status of state ownership, in determining the severity of financial constraints faced by Chinese firms. We demonstrate that government connections are associated with substantially less severe financial constraints (i.e., less reliance on internal cash flows to fund investment), and that the sensitivity of investment to internal cash flows is higher for firms that report greater obstacles to obtaining external funds. We also find that those large non-state firms with weak ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1129

Working Paper
Beyond the Doomsday Economics of “Proof-of-Work” in Cryptocurrencies
Auer, Raphael (2019-02-01)
This paper discusses the economics of how Bitcoin achieves data immutability, and thus payment finality, via costly computations, i.e., ?proof-of-work.? Further, it explores what the future might hold for cryptocurrencies modelled on this type of consensus algorithm. The conclusions are, first, that Bitcoin counterfeiting via ?double-spending? attacks is inherently profitable, making payment finality based on proof-of-work extremely expensive. Second, the transaction market cannot generate an adequate level of ?mining? income via fees as users free-ride on the fees of other transactions in a ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 355

Report
Who Pays the Price? Overdraft Fee Ceilings and the Unbanked
Dlugosz, Jennifer L.; Melzer, Brian T.; Morgan, Donald P. (2021-06-01)
Would capping overdraft fees increase financial inclusion? Studying an event in which caps were relaxed, we find banks raised overdraft fees but also expanded overdraft coverage and deposit supply, leading more low-income households to open accounts. While inattentive depositors may not benefit from being banked, the rise in account ownership persists, suggesting newly banked households valued their account even after learning about its costs. We find no evidence that being banked weakens households’ broader credit health, including delinquency, indebtedness, and credit scores. We conclude ...
Staff Reports , Paper 973

Working Paper
Villains or Scapegoats? The Role of Subprime Borrowers in Driving the U.S. Housing Boom
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Frame, W. Scott; Conklin, James; Liu, Haoyang (2018-08-01)
An expansion in mortgage credit to subprime borrowers is widely believed to have been a principal driver of the 2002?06 U.S. house price boom. Contrary to this belief, we show that the house price and subprime booms occurred in different places. Counties with the largest home price appreciation between 2002 and 2006 had the largest declines in the share of purchase mortgages to subprime borrowers. We also document that the expansion in speculative mortgage products and underwriting fraud was not concentrated among subprime borrowers.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-10

Working Paper
Managing Risk in Cards Portfolios: Risk Appetite and Limits
Eder, Tiffany; Labonne, Claire; O'Loughlin, Caitlin; Sharma, Krish (2024-02-15)
We describe an important risk management tool at financial institutions, risk appetite frameworks. We observe those frameworks for credit cards portfolios at four large banks and analyze when and why banks adjust them. The risk appetite frameworks for these banks monitor 40 to 150 metrics. We focus on metrics related to outstanding balances of which we identified 79. Overall, we find that these frameworks are sticky. Most adjustments occur during scheduled annual reviews and are relatively limited. Limit breaches are rare. Thresholds are often changed the month after a breach or after the ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper 24-01

Working Paper
Banks as Regulated Traders
Falato, Antonio; Iercosan, Diana A.; Zikes, Filip (2019-02-07)
This paper uses detailed high-frequency regulatory data to evaluate whether trading increases or decreases systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector. We estimate the sensitivity of weekly bank trading net profits to a variety of aggregate risk factors, which include equities, fixed-income, derivatives, foreign exchange, and commodities. We find that U.S. banks had large trading exposures to equity market risk before the introduction of the Volcker Rule in 2014 and that they curtailed these exposures afterwards. Pre-rule equity risk exposures were large across the board of the main asset ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-005

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