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Working Paper
Branching Networks and Geographic Contagion of Commodity Price Shocks
Wang, Teng (2020-05-01)
This paper studies the role of banks' branching networks in propagating the oil shocks. Banks that were exposed to the oil shocks through their operations in oil-concentrated counties experienced a liquidity drainage in the form of a declining amount of demand deposit inflow as well as an increasing percentage of troubled loans. Banks were forced to sell liquid assets, and contracted lending to small businesses and mortgage borrowers in counties that were not directly affected by the oil shocks. The effect is magnified when banks do not have strong community ties, but is mitigated if banks' ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-034

Working Paper
Options, Equity Risks, and the Value of Capital Structure Adjustments
Yang, Jie; Borochin, Paul (2016-10)
We use exchange-traded options to identify risks relevant to capital structure adjustments in firms. These forward-looking market-based risk measures provide significant explanatory power in predicting net leverage changes in excess of accounting data. They matter most during contractionary periods and for growth firms. We form market-based indices that capture firms' magnitudes of, and propensity for, net leverage increases. Firms with larger predicted leverage increases outperform firms with lower predicted increases by 3.1% to 3.9% per year in buy-and-hold abnormal returns. Finally, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-097

Working Paper
Secondary Market Liquidity and the Optimal Capital Structure
Arseneau, David M.; Rappoport, David E.; Vardoulakis, Alexandros (2015-05-12)
We present a model where endogenous liquidity generates a feedback loop between secondary market liquidity and firms' financing decisions in primary markets. The model features two key frictions: a costly state verification problem in primary markets, and search frictions in over-the-counter secondary markets. Our concept of liquidity depends endogenously on illiquid assets put up for sale relative to the resources available for buying those assets in the secondary market. Liquidity determines the liquidity premium, which affects issuance in the primary market, and this effect feeds back into ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-31

Journal Article
Bank corporate governance: a proposal for the post-crisis world
Macey, Jonathan R.; O'Hara, Maureen (2016-08)
The corporate governance problems of banks are qualitatively and quantitatively different from those of other firms. The authors argue that a key factor contributing to this difference is the growing opacity and complexity of bank activities, a trend that has increased the difficulty of managing risk in financial firms. They also cite the governance challenges posed by the holding company organization of banks, in which two boards of directors?the bank?s own board and the board of the holding company that owns the bank?monitor the bank. This paradigm results in significant confusion about the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Aug , Pages 85-105

Working Paper
Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle
Mehrotra, Neil; Crouzet, Nicolas (2017-09-05)
Drawing from confidential firm-level data of US manufacturing firms, we provide new evidence on the cyclicality of small and large firms. We show that the cyclicality of sales and investment declines with firm size. The effect is primarily driven by differences between the top 0.5% of firms and the rest. Moreover, we show that, due to the skewness of sales and investment, the higher cyclicality of small firms has a negligible influence on the behavior of aggregates. We argue that the size asymmetry is unlikely to be driven by financial frictions given 1) the absence of statistically ...
Working Papers , Paper 741

Working Paper
The Stock Market Response to a "Regulatory Sine Curve"
Sun, Bo; Young, Eric R.; Tam, Xuan S. (2020-09-18)
We construct new indicators of financial regulatory intensity and find evidence that a "regulatory sine curve" generally exists: regulatory oversight increases following a recession and wanes as the economy returns to normalcy. We then build an asset pricing model, based on the idea that regulatory oversight both deters incentives to commit fraud ex ante and reveals hidden negative information ex post. Our calibration suggests that these mechanisms can be quantitatively important for stock price dynamics.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1299

Working Paper
Net Income Measurement, Investor Inattention, and Firm Decisions
Amornsiripanitch, Natee; Huang, Zeqiong; Kwon, David; Lin, Jinjie (2022-02-14)
When investors have limited attention, does the way in which net income is measured matter for firm value and firms’ resource allocation decisions? This paper uses the Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-01, which requires public firms to incorporate changes in unrealized gains and losses (UGL) on equity securities into net income, to answer this question. We build a model with risk-averse investors who can be attentive or inattentive and managers who choose how much to invest in financial assets to maximize firms’ stock prices. The model predicts that, with inattentive investors, ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-05

Working Paper
Analysis of Multiple Long Run Relations in Panel Data Models with Applications to Financial Ratios
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P. (2025-08-20)
This paper provides a new methodology for the analysis of multiple long-run relations in panel data models where the cross-section dimension, n, is large relative to the time-series dimension, T. For panel data models with large n, researchers have focused on panels with a single long-run relationship. The main difficulty has been to eliminate short-run dynamics without generating significant uncertainty for identification of the long run. We overcome this problem by using non-overlapping sub-sample time averages as deviations from their full-sample counterpart and estimating the number of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2523

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