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Working Paper
U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies
Bowman, David; Londono, Juan M.; Sapriza, Horacio (2014-06-23)
We investigate the effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policies on sovereign yields, foreign exchange rates, and stock prices in emerging market economies (EMEs), and we analyze how these effects depend on country-specifc characteristics. We find that, although EME asset prices, mainly those of sovereign bonds, responded strongly to unconventional monetary policy announcements, these responses were not outsized with respect to a model that takes into account each country's time-varying vulnerability to U.S. interest rates affected by monetary policy shocks.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1109

Working Paper
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Coroneo, Laura (2020-03-27)
We examine international stock return comovements of country-industry portfolios. Our model allows comovements to be driven by a global and a cluster component, with the cluster membership endogenously determined. Results indicate that country-industry portfolios tend to cluster mainly within geographical areas that can include one or more countries. The cluster compositions substantially changed over time, with the emergence of clusters among European countries from the early 2000s. The cluster component was the main driver of country-industry portfolio returns for most of the sample, except ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-038

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2023-02-21)
Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock lead to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Working Paper
Institutional Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions
Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Niepmann, Friederike (2019-04-22)
This paper documents that an appreciation of the U.S. dollar is associated with a reduction in the supply of commercial and industrial loans by U.S. banks. An increase in the broad dollar index by 2.5 points (one standard deviation) reduces U.S. banks' corporate loan originations by 10 percent. This decline is driven by a reduction in the demand for loans on the secondary market where prices fall and liquidity worsens when the dollar appreciates, with stronger effects for riskier loans. Today, the main buyers of U.S. corporate loans---and, hence, suppliers of funding for these loans---are ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1246

Working Paper
Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises
Hur, Sewon; Sosa-Padilla, César; Yom, Zeynep (2021-01-29)
We study optimal bailout policies in the presence of banking and sovereign crises. First, we use European data to document that asset guarantees are the most prevalent way in which sovereigns intervene during banking crises. Then, we build a model of sovereign borrowing with limited commitment, where domestic banks hold government debt and also provide credit to the private sector. Shocks to bank capital can trigger banking crises, with government sometimes finding it optimal to extend guarantees over bank assets. This leads to a trade-off: Larger bailouts relax domestic financial frictions ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 406

Journal Article
Decentralized Finance: On Blockchain- and Smart Contract-Based Financial Markets
Schär, Fabian (2021-04-15)
The term decentralized finance (DeFi) refers to an alternative financial infrastructure built on top of the Ethereum blockchain. DeFi uses smart contracts to create protocols that replicate existing financial services in a more open, interoperable, and transparent way. This article highlights opportunities and potential risks of the DeFi ecosystem. I propose a multi-layered framework to analyze the implicit architecture and the various DeFi building blocks, including token standards, decentralized exchanges, decentralized debt markets, blockchain derivatives, and on-chain asset management ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 2 , Pages 153-174

Working Paper
Bad Sovereign or Bad Balance Sheets? Euro Interbank Market Fragmentation and Monetary Policy, 2011-2015
Gabrieli, Silvia; Labonne, Claire (2018-07-12)
We measure the relative role of sovereign-dependence risk and balance sheet (credit) risk in euro area interbank market fragmentation from 2011 to 2015. We combine bank-to-bank loan data with detailed supervisory information on banks? cross-border and cross-sector exposures. We study the impact of the credit risk on banks? balance sheets on their access to, and the price paid for, interbank liquidity, controlling for sovereign-dependence risk and lenders? liquidity shocks. We find that (i) high non-performing loan ratios on the GIIPS portfolio hinder banks? access to the interbank market ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper RPA 18-3

Report
LIBOR: origins, economics, crisis, scandal, and reform
Hou, David; Skeie, David R. (2014-03-01)
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is a widely used indicator of funding conditions in the interbank market. As of 2013, LIBOR underpins more than $300 trillion of financial contracts, including swaps and futures, in addition to trillions more in variable-rate mortgage and student loans. LIBOR's volatile behavior during the financial crisis provoked questions surrounding its credibility. Ongoing regulatory investigations have uncovered misconduct by a number of financial institutions. Policymakers across the globe now face the task of reforming LIBOR in the aftermath of the scandal and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 667

Working Paper
Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending
Cerutti, Eugenio; Minoiu, Camelia; Hale, Galina (2014-08-10)
We examine the composition and drivers of cross-border bank lending between 1995 and 2012, distinguishing between syndicated and non-syndicated loans. We show that on-balance sheet syndicated loan exposures, which account for almost one third of total cross-border loan exposures, increased during the global financial crisis due to large drawdowns on credit lines extended before the crisis. Our empirical analysis of the drivers of cross-border loan exposures in a large bilateral dataset leads to three main results. First, banks with lower levels of capital favor syndicated over other kinds of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-20

Working Paper
Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default
Kozlowski, Julian; Espino, Emilio; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-09-06)
A model with two essential elements, sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies, explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal tradeoffs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits, and increase inflation and currency depreciation rates, matching the patterns observed in the data for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-017

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