Search Results
Working Paper
The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices
Gordon, Matthew V.; Lunsford, Kurt Graden
(2023-11-13)
We study how congressional testimony about monetary policy by the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System affects interest rates and stock prices. First, we study testimony associated with the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs) to Congress. Testimony for a particular MPR is usually given on two days, one day for each chamber of Congress. We separately study the first day and second day of MPR testimony. We also study testimonies not associated with MPRs but that are still related to monetary policy. We find that first-day MPR testimonies cause the largest ...
Working Papers
, Paper 23-26
Working Paper
Level Shifts in Beta, Spurious Abnormal Returns and the TARP Announcement
Saxena, Konark; Reeves, Jonathan J.; Prono, Todd; Phin, Andrew
(2018-11-30)
Using high frequency data, we develop an event study method to test for level shifts in beta and measure abnormal returns for events that produce such level shifts. Using this method, we estimate abnormal returns for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) announcement and find that its abnormal returns are largely realized on the first day. The abnormal returns in the remaining post event period, which show up as a drift using standard methodology, are attributed to level shifts in beta.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2018-081
Report
Who Sees the Trades? The Effect of Information on Liquidity in Inter-Dealer Markets
Garratt, Rod; Martin, Antoine; Townsend, Robert M.; Lee, Michael Junho
(2019-07-01)
Dealers, who strategically supply liquidity to traders, are subject to both liquidity and adverse selection costs. While liquidity costs can be mitigated through inter-dealer trading, individual dealers? private motives to acquire information compromise inter-dealer market liquidity. Post-trade information disclosure can improve market liquidity by counteracting dealers? incentives to become better informed through their market-making activities. Asymmetric disclosure, however, exacerbates the adverse selection problem in inter-dealer markets, in turn decreasing equilibrium liquidity ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 892
Working Paper
Dotcom Extreme Underpricing
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; Pinheiro, Roberto; de Carvalho, Antonio Gledson
(2017-07-25)
We conjecture that the Dotcom abnormal underpricing resulted from the emergence a large cohort of firms racing for market leadership/survivorship. Fundamentals pricing at the IPO was part of their strategy. Consistent with our conjecture, firms? strategic goals and characteristics fully explain the abnormal underpricing. Contrary to alternatives explanations, underpricing was not associated with top underwriting; there was no deterioration of issuers? quality; and top underwriters and analysts became more selective.
Working Papers (Old Series)
, Paper 1714
Working Paper
Monetary policy surprises, positions of traders, and changes in commodity futures prices
Jamali, Ibrahim; Gospodinov, Nikolay
(2013-11-01)
Using futures data for the period 1990?2008, this paper finds evidence that expansionary monetary policy surprises tend to increase crude and heating oil prices, and contractionary monetary policy shocks increase gold and platinum prices. Our analysis uncovers substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude of this response to positive and negative surprises across different commodities and commodity groups. The results also suggest that the positions of futures traders for the metals and energy commodities strongly respond to monetary policy shocks. The adjustment of the net long positions of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2013-12
Report
Does central clearing reduce counterparty risk in realistic financial networks?
Garratt, Rod; Zimmerman, Peter
(2015-03-01)
Novating a single asset class to a central counterparty (CCP) in an over-the-counter derivatives trading network impacts both the mean and variance of total net exposures between counterparties. When a small number of dealers trade in a relatively large number of asset classes, central clearing increases the mean and variance of net exposures, which may lead to increased counterparty risk and higher margin needs. There are intermediate cases where there is a trade-off: The introduction of a CCP leads to an increase in expected net exposures but this increase is accompanied by a reduction in ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 717
Working Paper
Generating Options-Implied Probability Densities to Understand Oil Market Events
Londono, Juan M.; Datta, Deepa Dhume; Ross, Landon J.
(2014-10-29)
We investigate the informational content of options-implied probability density functions (PDFs) for the future price of oil. Using a semiparametric variant of the methodology in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978), we investigate the fit and smoothness of distributions derived from alternative PDF estimation methods, and develop a set of robust summary statistics. Using PDFs estimated around episodes of high geopolitical tensions, oil supply disruptions, and macroeconomic data releases, we explore the extent to which oil price movements are expected or unexpected, and whether agents believe ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1122
Working Paper
Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: the Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium
D'Amico, Stefania; Pancost, N. Aaron
(2018-12-03)
We estimate the joint term-structure of U.S. Treasury cash and repo rates using daily prices of all outstanding Treasury securities and corresponding special collateral (SC) repo rates. This allows us to derive a risk premium associated to the SC value of Treasuries and quantitatively link this premium to various price anomalies, such as the on-the-run premium. We show that a time-varying SC risk premium can explain between 74%?90% of the on-the-run premium, and is highly correlated with a number of other Treasury market anomalies. This suggests a commonality across these price anomalies, ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2018-21
Working Paper
The Closing of a Major Airport: Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects
Coughlin, Cletus C.; Ross, Stephen L.; Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Crews, Jonas C.
(2020-01-08)
The closing of a busy airport has large effects on noise and economic activity. Using a unique dataset, we examine the effects of closing Denver’s Stapleton Airport on nearby housing markets. We find evidence of immediate anticipatory price effects upon announcement, but no price changes at closing likely because closing was widely anticipated. Further, after airport closure, high income and white households moved into these locations and developers upgraded the quality of houses being built. Finally, post-closing, these demographic and housing stock changes had substantial effects on ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-001
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funding agreement-backed securities 1 items
futures 1 items
futures data 1 items
hedgers 1 items
hedging 1 items
high frequency identification 1 items
higher moments 1 items
hurricanes 1 items
inflation 1 items
information aggregation 1 items
information contagion 1 items
information design 1 items
information effects 1 items
information share 1 items
input-output linkages 1 items
inter-dealer 1 items
inter-dealer markets 1 items
internal monitoring 1 items
international finance 1 items
international trade 1 items
intraday 1 items
inventory 1 items
inventory risk 1 items
investor inattention 1 items
issuance 1 items
jump intensity 1 items
laboratory experiments 1 items
leadership turnover 1 items
life insurance companies 1 items
liquidity provision 1 items
macro news 1 items
macroeconomic news announcements 1 items
managerial incentives 1 items
microstructure 1 items
microstructure noise 1 items
monetary policy announcements 1 items
monetary policy implementation 1 items
monetary policy shocks 1 items
mortgage defaults 1 items
negative interest rates 1 items
network analysis 1 items
network formation 1 items
nonparametric methods 1 items
oil 1 items
oligopoly 1 items
over-the-counter financial market 1 items
overnight returns 1 items
payments 1 items
performance bonds 1 items
persistence 1 items
platforms 1 items
policy announcement 1 items
positions 1 items
positions of traders 1 items
preferred habitat 1 items
price efficiency 1 items
principal trading firms 1 items
professional forecasts 1 items
pump-and-dump 1 items
quantitative tightening (QT) 1 items
realized covariance 1 items
rearrangement 1 items
regression discontinuity 1 items
regulatory ambiguity 1 items
relationship lending 1 items
repo 1 items
repo rates 1 items
reserve asset 1 items
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