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Working Paper
Investment decisions and negative interest rates
Bracha, Anat (2016-11-01)
While the current European Central Bank deposit rate and 2-year German government bond yields are negative, the U.S. 2-year government bond and deposit rates are positive. Insights from Prospect Theory suggest that this situation may lead to an excess flow of funds into the United States. Yet the environment of negative interest rates is different from the environment considered in Prospect Theory and subsequent literature, since decisions are framed in terms of rates of return rather than absolute amounts and the task involves the allocation of funds rather than a choice or a pricing task as ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-23

Working Paper
A Model of Endogenous Debt Maturity with Heterogeneous Beliefs
Darst, Matt; Refayet, Ehraz (2017-05)
This paper studies optimal debt maturity in an economy with repayment enforcement frictions and investors disagree about repayment probabilities. The optimal debt maturity choice is a mix of long- and short-term debt securities. Spreading risky debt claims on cash flows over time allows debt to be priced by investors most willing to hold risk at each point in time, thereby increasing investment and output. By contrast, a single maturity, either all long- or short-term, will be priced by investors less willing to hold risk, which reduces investment and output. The model provides a novel ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-057

Working Paper
Peer Pressure: Social Interaction and the Disposition Effect
Heimer, Rawley (2016-07-14)
Social interaction contributes to some traders? disposition effect. New data from an investment-specific social network linked to individual-level trading records builds evidence of this connection. To credibly estimate causal peer effects, I exploit the staggered entry of retail brokerages into partnerships with the social trading web platform and compare trader activity before and after exposure to these new social conditions. Access to the social network nearly doubles the magnitude of a trader?s disposition effect. Traders connected in the network develop correlated levels of the ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1618

Working Paper
Flights to Safety
Wei, Min; Inghelbrecht, Koen; Bekaert, Geert; Baele, Lieven (2014-06-05)
Using only daily data on bond and stock returns, we identify and characterize flight to safety (FTS) episodes for 23 countries. On average, FTS days comprise less than 3% of the sample, and bond returns exceed equity returns by 2.5 to 4%. The majority of FTS events are country-specific not global. FTS episodes coincide with increases in the VIX and the Ted spread, decreases in consumer sentiment indicators and appreciations of the Yen, Swiss franc, and US dollar. The financial, basic materials and industrial industries under-perform in FTS episodes, but the telecom industry outperforms. Money ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-46

Working Paper
Visible Hands: Professional Asset Managers' Expectations and the Stock Market in China
Ammer, John; Rogers, John H.; Wang, Gang; Yu, Yang (2022-12)
Unemployment insurance and wage subsidies are key tools to support labor markets in recessions. We develop a multi-sector search and matching model with on-the-job human capital accumulation to study labor market policy responses to sector-specific shocks. Our calibration accounts for structural differences in labor markets between the United States and the euro area, including a lower job-finding rate in the latter. We use the model to evaluate unemployment insurance and wage subsidy policies in recessions of different duration. We find that, after a temporary sector-specific shock, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1362

Report
Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk
Yogo, Motohiro; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Song, Jae; Guvenen, Fatih (2017-03-06)
The magnitude of and heterogeneity in systematic earnings risk has important implications for various theories in macro, labor, and ?nancial economics. Using administrative data, we document how the aggregate risk exposure of individual earnings to GDP and stock returns varies across gender, age, the worker?s earnings level, and industry. Aggregate risk exposure is U-shaped with respect to the earnings level. In the middle of the earnings distribution, aggregate risk exposure is higher for males, younger workers, and those in construction and durable manufacturing. At the top of the earnings ...
Staff Report , Paper 546

Journal Article
The Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility
Anadu, Kenechukwu E.; Cipriani, Marco; Craver, Ryan M.; La Spada, Gabriele (2022-07-01)
In this article, the authors discuss the run on prime money market funds (MMFs) that occurred in March 2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and describe the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF), which the Federal Reserve established in response to it. They show that the MMLF, like a similarly structured Federal Reserve facility established during the 2008 financial crisis, was an important tool in stemming investor outflows from MMFs and restoring calm in short-term funding markets. The usage of the facility was higher by funds that suffered larger outflows. After the ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 28 , Issue 1

Working Paper
Hedging against the government: a solution to the home asset bias puzzle
Bhattarai, Saroj; Berriel, Tiago C. (2012)
This paper explains two puzzling facts: international nominal bonds and equity portfolios are biased domestically. In our two-country model, holding domestic government nominal debt provides a hedge against shocks to bond returns and the impact on taxes they induce. For this result, only two features are essential: some nominal risk and taxes falling only on domestic agents. A third feature explains why agents choose to hold primarily domestic equity: government spending falls on domestic goods. Then, an increase in government spending raises the returns on domestic equity, providing a hedge ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 113

Working Paper
Applications of Markov Chain Approximation Methods to Optimal Control Problems in Economics
Phelan, Tom; Eslami, Keyvan (2021-02-10)
In this paper we explore some of the benefits of using the finite-state Markov chain approximation (MCA) method of Kushner and Dupuis (2001) to solve continuous-time optimal control problems. We first show that the implicit finite-difference scheme of Achdou et al. (2017) amounts to a limiting form of the MCA method for a certain choice of approximating chains and policy function iteration for the resulting system of equations. We then illustrate the benefits of departing from policy function iteration by showing that using variations of modified policy function iteration to solve income ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-04

Working Paper
Can Leverage Constraints Help Investors?
Heimer, Rawley (2014-12-03)
This paper provides causal evidence that leverage constraints can reduce the underperformance of individual investors. In accordance with Dodd-Frank, the CFTC was given regulatory authority over the retail market for foreign exchange and capped the maximum permissible leverage available to U.S. traders. By comparing U.S. traders on the same brokerages with their unregulated European counterparts, I show that the leverage constraint reduces average per-trade losses even after adjusting for risk. Since this causal approach holds constant contemporaneous market factors, these findings challenge ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1433

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