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Working Paper
Shadow Bank Runs
Nosal, Ed; Andolfatto, David (2020-06-08)
Short-term debt is commonly used to fund illiquid assets. A conventional view asserts that such arrangements are run-prone in part because redemptions must be processed on a first-come, first-served basis. This sequential service protocol, however, appears absent in the wholesale banking sector---and yet, shadow banks appear vulnerable to runs. We explain how banking arrangements that fund fixed-cost operations using short-term debt can be run-prone even in the absence of sequential service. Interventions designed to eliminate run risk may or may not improve depositor welfare. We describe how ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-012

Working Paper
On the Measurement of Large Financial Firm Resolvability
Jarque, Arantxa; Walter, John R.; Evert, Jackson (2018-03-02)
We say that a large financial institution is "resolvable" if policymakers would allow it to go through unassisted bankruptcy in the event of failure. The choice between bankruptcy or bailout trades off the higher loss imposed on the economy in a potentially disruptive resolution against the incentive for excessive risk-taking created by an assisted resolution or a bailout. The resolution plans ("living wills") of large financial institutions contain information needed to evaluate this trade-off. In this paper, we propose a tool to complement the living will review process: an impact score ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-6

Journal Article
Case studies on disruptions during the crisis
Yorulmazer, Tanju (2014-02)
The 2007-09 financial crisis saw many funding mechanisms challenged by a drastic reduction in market liquidity, a sharp increase in the cost of transactions, and, in some cases, a drying-up in financing. This article presents case studies of several key financial markets and intermediaries under significant distress at this time. For each case, the author discusses the size and evolution of the funding mechanism, the sources of the disruptions, and the policy responses aimed at mitigating distress and making markets more liquid. The review serves as a reference on the vulnerabilities of ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Feb , Pages 17-28

Working Paper
A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt
Berger, Allen N.; Roman, Raluca; Epouhe, Onesime (2021-09-23)
High levels of subprime consumer debt can create social problems. We test the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) bailouts during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 crisis, respectively, on this debt. We use over 11 million credit bureau observations of individual consumer debt combined with banking, bailout, and local market data. We find that subprime consumers with more TARP institutions in their markets had significantly increased debt burdens following these bailouts. In contrast, PPP bailouts were associated with reduced ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-32

Working Paper
Tax Revolts and Sovereign Defaults
Arce, Fernando; Werquin, Nicolas; Morgan, Jan (2024-02)
Protests and fiscal crises often coincide, with complex causal dynamics at play. We examine the interaction between tax revolts and sovereign risk using a quantitative structural model calibrated to Argentina during the Macri administration (2015-2019). In the model, the government can be controlled by political parties with different preferences for redistribution. Households may opt to revolt in response to the fiscal policies of the ruler. While revolts entail economic costs, they also increase the likelihood of political turnover. Our model mirrors the data by generating political crises ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2024-07

Working Paper
International financial integration, crises, and monetary policy: evidence from the euro area interbank crises
Peydro, Jose Luis; Fecht, Falko; Bräuning, Falk; Abbassi, Puriya (2017-07-01)
We analyze how financial crises affect international financial integration, exploiting euro area proprietary interbank data, crisis and monetary policy shocks, and variation in loan terms to the same borrower on the same day by domestic versus foreign lenders. Crisis shocks reduce the supply of crossborder liquidity, with stronger volume effects than pricing effects, thereby impairing international financial integration. On the extensive margin, there is flight to home ? but this is independent of quality. On the intensive margin, however, GIPS-headquartered debtor banks suffer in the Lehman ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-6

Discussion Paper
Pricing Liquidity without Preemptive Runs
Cipriani, Marco; Martin, Antoine; McCabe, Patrick E. (2022-01-31)
Prime money market funds (MMFs) are vulnerable to runs. This was dramatically illustrated in September 2008 and March 2020, when massive outflows from prime MMFs worsened stress in the short-term funding markets and eased only after taxpayer-supported interventions by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. In this post, we describe how mechanisms like swing pricing that charge a price for liquidity can reduce the vulnerability of prime MMFs without triggering preemptive runs.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220131

Working Paper
Are Basel's Capital Surcharges for Global Systemically Important Banks Too Small?
von Hafften, Alexander H.; Passmore, Wayne (2017-02-21)
The Basel Committee promulgates bank regulatory standards that many major economies enact to a significant extent. One element of the Basel III capital standards is a system of capital surcharges for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). If the purpose of the surcharges is to ensure the survival of G-SIBs through serious crises (like the 2007-09 financial crisis) without extraordinary public assistance, our analysis suggests that current surcharges are too low because of three shortcomings: (1) the Basel system underestimates the probability that a G-SIB can fail, (2) the Basel system ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-021

Report
Rollover risk as market discipline: a two-sided inefficiency
Eisenbach, Thomas M. (2013)
Why does the market discipline that financial intermediaries face seem too weak during booms and too strong during crises? This paper shows in a general equilibrium setting that rollover risk as a disciplining device is effective only if all intermediaries face purely idiosyncratic risk. However, if assets are correlated, a two-sided inefficiency arises: Good aggregate states have intermediaries taking excessive risks, while bad aggregate states suffer from costly fire sales. The driving force behind this inefficiency is an amplifying feedback loop between asset values and market discipline. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 597

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