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Liquidity policies and systemic risk
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2014-12-01)
The growth of wholesale-funded credit intermediation has motivated liquidity regulations. We analyze a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which liquidity and capital regulations interact with the supply of risk-free assets. In the model, the endogenously time-varying tightness of liquidity and capital constraints generates intermediaries? leverage cycle, influencing the pricing of risk and the level of risk in the economy. Our analysis focuses on liquidity policies? implications for household welfare. Within the context of our model, liquidity requirements are preferable to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 661

Working Paper
Employment Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy : Evidence from QE
Zimmermann, Thomas; Luck, Stephan (2018-10-24)
This paper investigates the effect of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy on employment via a bank lending channel. We find that banks with higher mortgage-backed securities holdings issued relatively more loans after the first and third rounds of quantitative easing (QE1 and QE3). While additional volume is concentrated in refinanced mortgages after QE1, increases are driven by newly originated home purchase mortgages and additional commercial and industrial lending after QE3. Using spatial variation, we show that regions with a high share of affected banks experienced ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-071

Working Paper
Tokenization: Overview and Financial Stability Implications
Swem, Nathan; Gerszten, Jacob; Chuan, Grace; Carapella, Francesca (2023-09-08)
In this paper we outline tokenization, which is a new and rapidly growing financial innovation in crypto asset markets, and we discuss potential benefits and financial stability implications. Tokenization refers to the process of constructing digital representations (crypto tokens) for non-crypto assets (reference assets). As we discuss below, tokenizations create interconnections between the digital asset ecosystem and the traditional financial system. At sufficient scale, tokenized assets could transmit volatility from crypto asset markets to the markets for the crypto token's reference ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-060

Report
Climate Regulatory Risks and Corporate Bonds
Starks, Laura; Seltzer, Lee; Zhu, Qifei (2022-04-01)
Investor and policymaker concerns about climate risks suggest these risks should affect the risk assessment and pricing of corporate securities, particularly for firms facing stricter regulatory enforcement. Using corporate bonds, the authors find support for this hypothesis. Employing a shock to expected climate regulations, they show climate regulatory risks causally affect bond credit ratings and spreads. A structural credit model indicates that the increased spreads for high carbon issuers, especially those located in stricter regulatory environments, are driven by changes in firms' asset ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1014

Journal Article
The equity risk premium: a review of models
Rosa, Carlo; Duarte, Fernando M. (2015)
The authors estimate the equity risk premium (ERP)?the expected return on stocks in excess of the risk-free rate?by combining information from twenty models for the period 1960-2013. They begin their analysis by categorizing the models into five classes: trailing historical mean, dividend discount, cross-sectional estimation, regression analysis using valuation ratios or macroeconomic variables, and surveys. They find that an optimal weighted average of all models places the one-year-ahead ERP in June 2012 at 12.2 percent, close to levels reached in the mid- and late 1970s, when the ERP was ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 2 , Pages 39-57

Report
Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2012)
We present a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles within a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. Intermediaries face risk-based funding constraints that give rise to procyclical leverage and a procyclical share of intermediated credit. The pricing of risk varies as a function of intermediary leverage, and asset return exposures to intermediary leverage shocks earn a positive risk premium. Relative to an economy with constant leverage, financial intermediaries generate higher consumption growth and lower consumption volatility in normal times, at the cost of endogenous systemic ...
Staff Reports , Paper 567

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