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Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas
Koech, Janet; Wynne, Mark A.; Chudik, Alexander (2018-08-22)
The growth of globalization in recent decades has increased the importance of external factors as drivers of the business cycle in many countries. Globalization affects countries not just at the macro level but at the level of states and metro areas as well. This paper isolates the relative importance of global, national and region-specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual U.S. states and metro areas. We document significant heterogeneity in the sensitivity of states and metro areas to global shocks, and show that direct trade linkages are not the only channel through ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 343

Working Paper
A threshold model of the US current account
Duncan, Roberto (2014-10-01)
What drives US current account imbalances? Is there solid evidence that the behavior of the current account is different during deficits and surpluses or that the size of the imbalance matters? Is there a threshold relationship between the US current account and its main drivers? We estimate a threshold model to answer these questions using the instrumental variable estimation proposed by Caner and Hansen (2004). Rather than concluding that the size or the sign of (previous) external imbalances matters, we find that time is the most important threshold variable. One regime exists before and ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 202

Working Paper
A Quantitative Analysis of Tariffs across U.S. States
Zhang, Jing; Sposi, Michael; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2021-05-21)
We develop a quantitative framework to assess the cross-state implications of a U.S. trade policy change: a unilateral increase in the import tariff from 2 to 25 across all goods-producing sectors. Although the U.S. gains overall from the tariff increase, we find the impact differs starkly across locations. Changes in real consumption (welfare) range from as high as 3.8% in Wyoming to $-0.3% in Florida, depending mainly on how exposed states are to differentially-impacted sectors. As a result, the "preferred'' tariff rate varies greatly across states. Foreign retaliation in trade policy ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-007

Working Paper
Trilemma, not dilemma: financial globalisation and Monetary policy effectiveness
Mehl, Arnaud; Georgiadis, Georgios (2015-01-01)
We investigate whether the classic Mundell-Flemming "trilemma" has morphed into a "dilemma" due to financial globalisation. According to the dilemma hypothesis, global financial cycles determine domestic financial conditions regardless of an economy's exchange rate regime and monetary policy autonomy is possible only if capital mobility is restricted. We find that global financial cycles indeed reduce domestic monetary policy effectiveness in more financially integrated economies. However, we also find that another salient feature of financial globalisation has the opposite effect and ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 222

Discussion Paper
Can Lessons from the Great Recession Guide Policy Responses to the Pandemic-Driven Economic Crisis?
Van Horn, Carl; Oates, Jane (2020-06-16)
In a 1948 speech to the British House of Commons, Winston Churchill warned, "Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it." As the U.S. economy struggles to reopen safely and recover, what are the lessons from the Great Recession that might help guide how policymakers respond to the pandemic-driven economic crisis?1 What should we expect over the coming months and years as the nation struggles to restore its economy, which before the pandemic had finally achieved historically low unemployment levels? In June 2020, there is much that we do not know or would even attempt to ...
Workforce Currents , Paper 2020-05

Working Paper
On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs
Carroll, Daniel R.; Hur, Sewon (2023-02-13)
We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the US and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth, and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor, and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1 percent reduction in consumption. Much larger welfare losses are concentrated among retirees and low-wealth households, while only wealthy ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-18R2

Working Paper
Capital Accumulation and Dynamic Gains from Trade
Sposi, Michael; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Ravikumar, B. (2017-01-01)
We compute welfare gains from trade in a dynamic, multi-country Ricardian model where international trade affects capital accumulation. We calibrate the model for 93 countries and examine transition paths between steady-states after a permanent, uniform trade liberalization across countries. Our model allows for both the relative price of investment and the investment rate to depend on the world distribution of trade barriers. Accounting for transitional dynamics, welfare gains are about 60 percent of those measured by comparing only the steady-states, and three times larger than those with ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 296

Working Paper
Checking the Path Towards Recovery from the COVID-19 Isolation Response
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Kydland, Finn E. (2020-05-12)
This paper examines the impact of the behavioral changes and governments' responses to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic using a unique dataset of daily private forecasters' expectations on a sample of 32 emerging and advanced economies from January 1 till April 13, 2020. We document three important lessons from the data: First, there is evidence of a relation between the stringency of the policy interventions and the health outcomes consistent with slowing down the spread of the pandemic. Second, we find robust evidence that private forecasters have come to anticipate a sizeable ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 384

Working Paper
On the Heterogeneous Welfare Gains and Losses from Trade
Hur, Sewon; Carroll, Daniel R. (2019-03-22)
How are the gains and losses from trade distributed across individuals within a country? First, we document that tradable goods constitute a larger fraction of expenditures for poor households. Second, we build a trade model with nonhomothetic preferences?to generate the documented relationship between tradable expenditure shares, income, and wealth?and uninsurable earnings risk?to generate heterogeneity in income and wealth. Third, we use the calibrated model to quantify the differential welfare gains and losses from trade along the income and wealth distribution. In a numerical exercise, we ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-06

Working Paper
Saving Europe?: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Austerity in Integrated Economies
Zhang, Jing; Tesar, Linda L.; Mendoza, Enrique G. (2014-10-06)
What are the macroeconomic effects of tax adjustments in response to large public debt shocks in highly integrated economies? The answer from standard closed-economy models is deceptive, because they underestimate the elasticity of capital tax revenues and ignore cross-country spillovers of tax changes. Instead, we examine this issue using a two-country model that matches the observed elasticity of the capital tax base by introducing endogenous capacity utilization and a partial depreciation allowance. Tax hikes have adverse effects on macro aggregates and welfare, and trigger strong ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-13

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