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Discussion Paper
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
Vilán, Diego; Mandelman, Federico S. (2020-10-21)
Looking at the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on workers' remittances flowing from the United States, this article focuses on the experiences of two countries, El Salvador and Mexico, which account for approximately 30 percent of all immigrants currently residing in the United States. Following the second quarter's economic lockdown, transfers to these countries experienced perplexing dynamics. Specifically, remittances to El Salvador witnessed a record 40 percent sudden drop, while Mexico recorded an unexpected 35 percent increase. We discuss some of the narratives proposed to explain this ...
Policy Hub* , Paper 2020-12

Journal Article
Shipping Cost Shocks and US Producer Prices: Normal versus Crisis Pass-through
Gilchrist, Simon; Wei, Bin; Yue, Vivian Z.; Zakrajšek, Egon (2026-09-22)
This paper examines how fluctuations in shipping costs pass through to U.S. producer prices. We link confidential shipment-level import transactions from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database (LFTTD) to confidential firm-level producer prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index (PPI) microdata, constructing a monthly panel of more than 6,000 U.S. manufacturing importers from 2005 to 2022. Using local projections and Bartik-style instruments based on route-level shipping-cost variation, we find that pass-through to domestic producer prices is ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2026 , Issue 7 , Pages 54

Journal Article
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
Vilán, Diego; Mandelman, Federico S. (2020-10-21)
Looking at the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on workers’ remittances flowing from the United States, this article focuses on the experiences of two countries, El Salvador and Mexico, which account for approximately 30 percent of all immigrants currently residing in the United States. Following the second quarter’s economic lockdown, transfers to these countries experienced perplexing dynamics.Specifically, remittances to El Salvador witnessed a record 40 percent sudden drop, while Mexico recorded an unexpected 35 percent increase. We discuss some of the narratives proposed to explain ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2020 , Issue 12 , Pages 11

Working Paper
A model of the Twin Ds: optimal default and devaluation
Yue, Vivian Z.; Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie; Na, Seunghoon; Uribe, Martin (2015-04-01)
This paper characterizes jointly optimal default and exchange-rate policy in a small open economy with limited enforcement of debt contracts and downward nominal wage rigidity. Under optimal policy, default occurs during contractions and is accompanied by large devaluations. The latter inflate away real wages, thereby avoiding massive unemployment. Thus, the Twin Ds phenomenon emerges endogenously as the optimal outcome. In contrast, under fixed exchange rates, optimal default takes place in the context of large involuntary unemployment. Fixed-exchange-rate economies are shown to have ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-1

Working Paper
Shipping Cost Shocks and US Producer Prices: Normal versus Crisis Pass-through
Gilchrist, Simon; Zakrajšek, Egon; Wei, Bin; Yue, Vivian Z. (2026-09-21)
This paper examines how shipping costs pass through to US producer prices. We link confidential shipment-level import transactions from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database (LFTTD) to confidential firm-level producer prices from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index (PPI) microdata, constructing a monthly panel of more than 6,000 US manufacturing importers from 2005 to 2022. Using local projections and Bartik-style instruments based on route-level shipping-cost variation, we find that pass-through to producer prices is negligible in normal times ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-13

Working Paper
Offshoring, low-skilled immigration, and labor market polarization
Zlate, Andrei; Mandelman, Federico S. (2014-12-01)
During the last three decades, jobs in the middle of the skill distribution disappeared, and employment expanded for high- and low-skill occupations. Real wages did not follow the same pattern. Although earnings for the high-skill occupations increased robustly, wages for both low- and middle-skill workers remained subdued. We attribute this outcome to the rise in offshoring and low-skilled immigration, and we develop a three-country stochastic growth model to rationalize this outcome. In the model, the increase in offshoring negatively affects the middle-skill occupations but benefits the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-28

Working Paper
Labor market polarization and international macroeconomic dynamics
Mandelman, Federico S. (2013-12-01)
During the last thirty years, labor markets in advanced economies were characterized by their remarkable polarization. As job opportunities in middle-skill occupations disappeared, employment opportunities concentrated in the highest- and lowest-wage occupations. I develop a two-country stochastic growth model that incorporates trade in tasks, rather than in goods, and reveal that this setup can replicate the observed polarization in the United States. This polarization was not a steady process: the relative employment share of each skill group fluctuated significantly over short-to-medium ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-17

Working Paper
Intellectual Property, Tariffs, and International Trade Dynamics
Waddle, Andrea L.; Mandelman, Federico S. (2019-05-01)
The emergence of global value chains not only leads to a magnification of trade in intermediate inputs but also to an extensive technology diffusion among the different production units involved in arms-length relationships. In this context, the lack of enforcement of intellectual property rights has recently become a highly controversial subject of debate in the context of the China-U.S. trade negotiations. This paper analyzes the strategic interaction of tariff policies and the enforcement of intellectual property rights within a quantitative general equilibrium framework. Results indicate ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-10

Working Paper
Fintech Entry, Firm Financial Inclusion, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Emerging Economies
Shapiro, Alan Finkelstein; Nuguer, Victoria; Mandelman, Federico S. (2022-01-31)
We build a model with a traditional banking system, endogenous entry of firms and fintech intermediaries, and firm heterogeneity in credit access and usage to study the credit-market, macroeconomic, and business cycle implications of the recent sizable growth in the number of fintech intermediaries in emerging economies. Our analysis delivers three findings. First, the impact of greater fintech entry on firm financial inclusion depends on whether greater entry is driven by lower entry costs for fintech intermediaries or lower barriers to fintech credit for unbanked firms. Second, greater ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-2

Working Paper
Slowdown in Immigration, Labor Shortages, and Declining Skill Premia
Zlate, Andrei; Yu, Yang; Zanetti, Francesco; Mandelman, Federico S. (2024-01-16)
We document a slowdown in low-skilled immigration that began around the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, which was associated with a subsequent rise in low-skilled wages, a decline in the skill premium, and labor shortages in service occupations. Falling returns to education also coincided with a decline in the educational attainment of native workers. We then develop and estimate a stochastic growth model with endogenous immigration and training to rationalize these facts. Lower immigration leads to higher wages for low-skilled workers but also to higher consumer prices and lower ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2024-1

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