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Discussion Paper
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
Vilán, Diego; Mandelman, Federico S. (2020-10-21)
Looking at the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on workers' remittances flowing from the United States, this article focuses on the experiences of two countries, El Salvador and Mexico, which account for approximately 30 percent of all immigrants currently residing in the United States. Following the second quarter's economic lockdown, transfers to these countries experienced perplexing dynamics. Specifically, remittances to El Salvador witnessed a record 40 percent sudden drop, while Mexico recorded an unexpected 35 percent increase. We discuss some of the narratives proposed to explain this ...
Policy Hub* , Paper 2020-12

Journal Article
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
Vilán, Diego; Mandelman, Federico S. (2020-10-21)
Looking at the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on workers’ remittances flowing from the United States, this article focuses on the experiences of two countries, El Salvador and Mexico, which account for approximately 30 percent of all immigrants currently residing in the United States. Following the second quarter’s economic lockdown, transfers to these countries experienced perplexing dynamics.Specifically, remittances to El Salvador witnessed a record 40 percent sudden drop, while Mexico recorded an unexpected 35 percent increase. We discuss some of the narratives proposed to explain ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2020 , Issue 12 , Pages 11

Working Paper
The Dynamics of Large Inflation Surges
Blanco, Andrés; Ottonello, Pablo; Ranošová, Tereza (2024-09-23)
We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges that have been observed worldwide in the last three decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation surges tend to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of average short-term expectations with realized inflation. (3) Long-term inflation expectations tend to exhibit increases that persist throughout disinflation. (4) Policy responses are characterized by hikes in nominal interest rates but no tightening ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2024-9

Report
Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on the Outlook of Small and Medium-sized Businesses
Schoenle, Raphael; Leer, John; Dietrich, Alexander; Andrade, Philippe; Handley, Sophie; Tang, Jenny; Zakrajšek, Egon (2025-09-05)
A large body of research demonstrates that uncertainty affects many dimensions of firms’ decisions, from investment and hiring to pricing and profitability. To gain a better understanding of how uncertainty induced by shifting trade policy shapes the behavior of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) the authors surveyed decision-makers at SMBs. The survey, administered by Morning Consult, was conducted in three waves: in December 2024, February 2025, and late April 2025. Each wave contained a nationally representative sample of about 600 SMBs.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 2025-12

Report
Who Will Pay for Tariffs? Businesses’ Expectations about Costs and Prices
Schoenle, Raphael; Leer, John; Dietrich, Alexander; Andrade, Philippe; Tang, Jenny; Zakrajšek, Egon; Lin, Xiao (2025-09-29)
Amid evolving global trade policy and rising tariff uncertainty, understanding how small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) form expectations about future costs and adjust their pricing is critical for assessing how the recently imposed tariffs on US imports could impact consumer prices. To that end, we analyze several waves of a survey of owners and other decision-makers at a nationally representative sample of US SMBs, defined as companies that employ 500 or fewer workers. We focus on waves conducted during the period of December 2024 to August 2025.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 25-13

Report
The Impact of Tariffs on Inflation
Stein, Hillary; Barbiero, Omar (2025-02-06)
This brief introduces a new methodology that quantifies how price increases at the border transmit to US consumers. The methodology allows the authors to determine the share of US consumption that would be subject to such increases and to break them down into different country and industry sources. Among other applications, the methodology enables the authors to compute the effects of various tariff plans on consumer price inflation, as tariffs effectively increase the border prices of imported goods.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 25-2

Report
Small and Medium-sized Businesses’ Expectations Concerning Tariffs, Costs, and Prices
Schoenle, Raphael; Leer, John; Dietrich, Alexander; Andrade, Philippe; Tang, Jenny; Zakrajšek, Egon (2025-04-10)
Small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) constitute an integral part of the US economy, driving job creation and economic growth. They account for approximately half of private-sector employment and play a crucial role in fostering competition, all the while supporting local communities. This brief uses a new survey of SMB decision-makers to study how US tariff changes could affect businesses’ costs and prices.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 25-7

Working Paper
Pass-Through Beyond the Border: Oligopoly, Networks, and Tariffs
Silva, Alvaro; Stein, Hillary; Barbiero, Omar (2026-10-01)
We develop a multisector open-economy model that maps border price shocks into US producer and consumer prices through imported inputs, domestic production networks, and competition with foreign suppliers. The framework, which we apply to the 2025 US tariffs, accommodates pass-through in either levels or logs and maps directly to public data on input–output linkages, trade, and prices. Allowing firms to respond to the prices of competing imported varieties substantially improves the model’s fit to producer prices, and the resulting model is also consistent with the consumer-price ...
Working Papers , Paper 26-14

Working Paper
The Valuation Effects of Trade
Barbiero, Omar (2021-09-01)
This paper estimates the cash flow and real effects of currency mismatches generated by foreign-priced operations of French manufacturers. The value of transactions invoiced in foreign currencies is twice as sensitive to exchange rates as the value of transactions invoiced in the domestic currency. I aggregate foreign-priced operations to the firm level to build a shift-share measure of invoice currency mismatch. This measure outperforms any trade-weighted effective exchange rate index in explaining cash flows of trading firms. Large firms absorb valuation shocks in their balance sheet, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-11

Working Paper
Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement: the role of balance sheets
Davis, J. Scott (2011)
This paper investigates the effect of international financial integration on international business cycle co-movement. We first show with a reduced form empirical approach how capital market integration (equity) has a negative effect on business cycle co-movement while credit market integration (debt) has a positive effect. We then construct a model that can replicate these empirical results.> ; In the model, capital market integration is modeled as crossborder equity ownership and involves wealth effects. Credit market integration is modeled as cross-border borrowing and lending between ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 89

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