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Working Paper
Global banks, financial shocks and international business cycles: evidence from an estimated model
Kollmann, Robert (2012)
This paper estimates a two-country model with a global bank, using U.S. and Euro area (EA) data, and Bayesian methods. The estimated model matches key U.S. and EA business cycle statistics. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for U.S. real activity. During the Great Recession (2007?09), banking shocks accounted for about 20 percent of the fall in U.S. and EA GDP, and for more than half of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 120

Working Paper
Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States
Goetz, Martin R.; Gozzi, Juan Carlos (2020-11-20)
We analyze the effect of the geographic expansion of banks across U.S. states on the comovement of economic activity between states. Exploiting the removal of interstate banking restrictions to construct time-varying instrumental variables at the state-pair level, we find that bilateral banking integration increases output co-movement between states. The effect of financial integration depends on the nature of the idiosyncratic shocks faced by states and is stronger for more financially dependent industries. Finally, we show that integration (1) increases the similarity of bank lending ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1305

Working Paper
Capital Controls and the Global Financial Cycle
Matschke, Johannes; Lovchikova, Marina (2021-09-08)
Capital flows into emerging markets are volatile and associated with risks. A common prescription is to impose counter-cyclical capital controls that tighten during economic booms to mitigate future sudden-stop dynamics, but it has been challenging to document such patterns in the data. Instead, we show that emerging markets tighten their capital controls in response to volatility in international financial markets and elevated risk aversion. We develop a model in which this behavior arises from a desire to manipulate the risk premium. When investors are more risk-averse or markets are ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-08

Working Paper
Bad Bad Contagion
Londono, Juan M. (2016-09)
Bad contagion, the downside component of contagion in international stock markets, has negative implications for financial stability. I propose a measure for the occurrence and severity of global contagion that combines the factor-model approach in Bekaert et al. (2005) with the model-free or co-exceedance approach in Bae et al. (2003). Contagion is measured as the proportion of international stock markets that simultaneously experience unexpected returns beyond a certain threshold. I decompose contagion into its downside or bad component (the co-exceedance of low returns) and its upside or ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1178

Working Paper
Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel
Kollmann, Robert (2017-03-01)
The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are highly correlated internationally. The model assumes recursive intertemporal preferences (Epstein-Zin-Weil), and a muted response of labor hours to household wealth changes (due to Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman period utility and demand-determined employment under rigid wages). Recursive intertemporal ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 307

Working Paper
Geopolitical Risk and Global Banking
Niepmann, Friederike; Shen, Leslie Sheng (2025-08-27)
How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolitical risk but continue lending to those markets through foreign affiliatesâ unlike their response to other macro risks. Furthermore, banks reduce domestic lending when geopolitical risk rises abroad, especially when they operate foreign affiliates. A simple banking model in which geopolitical shocks feature expropriation risk can explain these ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1418

Working Paper
Limited asset market participation and the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly
Kollmann, Robert (2010)
Under efficient consumption risk sharing, as assumed in standard international business cycle models, a country's aggregate consumption rises relative to foreign consumption, when the country's real exchange rate depreciates. Yet, empirically, relative consumption and the real exchange rate are essentially uncorrelated. I show that this "consumption-real exchange rate anomaly" can be explained by a simple model in which a subset of households trade in complete financial markets, while the remaining households lead hand-to-mouth (HTM) lives. HTM behavior also generates greater volatility of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 41

Working Paper
Offshore Financial Centers: Parasites or Symbionts?
Rose, Andrew K.; Spiegel, Mark M. (2005-05-01)
This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of offshore financial centers (OFCs). Since OFCs are likely to be tax havens and money launderers, they encourage bad behavior in source countries. Nevertheless, OFCs may also have unintended positive consequences for their neighbors, since they act as a competitive fringe for the domestic banking sector. We derive and simulate a model of a home country monopoly bank facing a representative competitive OFC which offers tax advantages attained by moving assets offshore at a cost that is increasing in distance between the OFC and the source. Our ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2005-05

Working Paper
Pre-Positioning and Cross-Border Financial Intermediation
Tabor, Nicholas K.; Zhang, Jeffery Y. (2022-08-09)
The benefits of cross-border financial activity are wide-ranging, from greater competition and more efficient markets to broader and more stable access to capital. During normal economic times, the official sector and private sector share an incentive to foster such cross-border financial activities. During a financial crisis, however, the short-term alignment of official- and private-sector incentives can divergeâ€”sometimes significantly. We present a game-theoretic model of the underlying trade-offs and discuss lessons for international financial regulators, placing them in the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-051

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