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Working Paper
Nonbank Lenders as Global Shock Absorbers: Evidence from US Monetary Policy Spillovers
Meisenzahl, Ralf R.; Peydró, José-Luis; Elliott, David (2023-08)
We show that nonbank lenders act as global shock absorbers from US monetary policy spillovers. We exploit loan-level data from the global syndicated lending market and US monetary policy surprises. When US policy tightens, nonbanks increase dollar credit supply to non-US firms (relative to banks), mitigating the dollar credit reduction. This increase is stronger for riskier firms, proxied by emerging market firms, high-yield firms, or firms in countries with stronger capital inflow restrictions. However, firm-lender matching, zombie lending, fragile-nonbank lending, or periods of low vs ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-29

Journal Article
The economics of small open economies
Guerron-Quintana, Pablo (2013-10)
In recent years, the threat of sovereign debt crises has led investors to demand higher yields on bonds issued by heavily indebted developed countries such as Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal. Pablo Guerron-Quintana explains why small open economies in both the developed and developing worlds share certain funding constraints and considers what lessons developed economies may draw from the experiences of their developing counterparts.
Business Review , Issue Q4 , Pages 9-18

Working Paper
Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Minoiu, Camelia; Goldberg, Linda S.; Correa, Ricardo; di Giovanni, Julian (2024-10-18)
This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018–19 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2024-16

Journal Article
Understanding U.S. cross-border securities data
Bertaut, Carol C.; Griever, William L.; Tryon, Ralph W. (2006-05)
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 92 , Issue May

Working Paper
Seigniorage and Sovereign Default: The Response of Emerging Markets to COVID-19
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2020-07-10)
Monetary policy affects the tradeoffs faced by governments in sovereign default models. In the absence of lump-sum taxation, governments rely on both disortionary taxes and seigniorage to finance expenditure. Furthermore, monetary policy adds a time-consistency problem in debt choice, which may mitigate or exacerbate the incentives to accumulate debt. A deterioration of the terms-of-trade leads to an increase in sovereign-default risk and inflation, and a reduction in growth, which are consistent with the empirical evidence for emerging economies. An unanticipated shock resembling the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-017

Working Paper
Avoiding Sovereign Default Contagion: A Normative Analysis
Mallucci, Enrico; De Ferra, Sergio (2020-02-27)
Should debtor countries support each other during sovereign debt crises? We answer this question through the lens of a two-country sovereign-default model that we calibrate to the euro-area periphery. First, we look at cross-country bailouts. We find that whenever agents anticipate their existence, bailouts induce moral hazard an reduce welfare. Second, we look at the borrowing choices of a global central borrower. We find that it borrows less than individual governments and, as such, defaults become less frequent and welfare increases. Finally, we show that central borrower's policies can be ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1275

Working Paper
How Does Fiscal Policy affect the Transmission of Monetary Policy into Cross-border Bank Lending? Cross-country Evidence
Pradhan, Swapan-Kumar; Takáts, Előd; Temesvary, Judit (2024-11-25)
We use a rarely accessed BIS database on bilateral cross-border bank claims by bank nationality to examine the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies. We find significant interactions: the transmission of the monetary policies of major currency issuers is significantly influenced by the fiscal stance of source (home) lending banking systems. Fiscal consolidation in a source country amplifies the effect of currency issuers' monetary policy on lending. For instance, a reduction in the German debt-to-GDP ratio amplifies the negative impact of US monetary policy tightening on USD-denominated ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1400

Journal Article
COVID-19: Fiscal Implications and Financial Stability in Developing Countries
Grittayaphong, Praew; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2023-07-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic has been unlike any other crisis that we have experienced in that it hit all economies in the world at the same time, compromising the risk-sharing ability of nations. At the onset of the pandemic, the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) jointly pledged 1.16 trillion U.S. dollars to help emerging economies deal with COVID-19. Would this amount have been enough to preserve financial stability in a worst case scenario, and what were the fiscal implications of the pandemic? In this article we aim to answer these questions by documenting the size of the ...
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 3 , Pages 137-149

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