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Working Paper
Unconventional monetary policy and the dollar: conventional signs, unconventional magnitudes
Leduc, Sylvain; Glick, Reuven (2015-11-29)
We examine the effects of unconventional monetary policy surprises on the value of the dollar using high-frequency intraday data and contrast them with the effects of conventional policy tools. Identifying monetary policy surprises from changes in interest rate future prices in narrow windows around policy announcements, we find that monetary policy surprises since the Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate to the effective lower bound have had larger effects on the value of the dollar. In particular, we document that the impact on the dollar has been roughly three times that following ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2015-18

Working Paper
Institutional Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions
Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Niepmann, Friederike (2019-04-22)
This paper documents that an appreciation of the U.S. dollar is associated with a reduction in the supply of commercial and industrial loans by U.S. banks. An increase in the broad dollar index by 2.5 points (one standard deviation) reduces U.S. banks' corporate loan originations by 10 percent. This decline is driven by a reduction in the demand for loans on the secondary market where prices fall and liquidity worsens when the dollar appreciates, with stronger effects for riskier loans. Today, the main buyers of U.S. corporate loans---and, hence, suppliers of funding for these loans---are ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1246

Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?
Ahmed, Shaghil; Coulibaly, Brahima; Zlate, Andrei (2017-06-05)
We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs), covering the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and seven other episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in relatively early and persisted through this episode. (3) During ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper RPA 17-2

Working Paper
On the sustainability of exchange rate target zones with central parity realignments
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2015-06-01)
I show that parity realignments alone do not suffice to ensure the long-run sustainability of an exchange rate target zone with imperfect credibility due to the gambler?s ruin problem. However, low credibility and frequent realignments can destabilize the exchange rate.
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 243

Journal Article
Treasury and federal reserve foreign exchange operations
Kos, Dino (2001-12)
During the third quarter of 2001, the dollar depreciated 7.3 percent against the euro and 4.1 percent against the yen. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar ended the quarter 2.6 percent lower. Economic data released even before the terrorist attacks on September 11 suggested that the U.S. economic slowdown would likely be more protracted than previously expected, which generally weighed on the dollar. The attacks heightened pre-existing concerns about the weakness of the U.S. economy and lent further momentum to the general trends that prevailed earlier in the quarter. The U.S. monetary ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 87 , Issue Dec

Working Paper
Embedded Supervision: How to Build Regulation into Blockchain Finance
Auer, Raphael (2019-10-01)
The spread of distributed ledger technology (DLT) in finance could help to improve the efficiency and quality of supervision. This paper makes the case for embedded supervision, i.e., a regulatory framework that provides for compliance in tokenized markets to be automatically monitored by reading the market?s ledger, thus reducing the need for firms to actively collect, verify and deliver data. After sketching out a design for such schemes, the paper explores the conditions under which distributed ledger data might be used to monitor compliance. To this end, a decentralized market is modelled ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 371

Working Paper
Who's Most Exposed to International Shocks? Estimating Differences in Import Price Sensitivity across U.S. Demographic Groups
Hottman, Colin J.; Monarch, Ryan (2023-09-27)
Differences in consumption patterns across demographic groups mean that international price shocks differentially affect such groups. We construct import price indexes for U.S. consumer groups that vary by age, race, sex, education, and urban status. Black consumers and college graduates experienced significantly higher import price inflation from 1996-2018 compared to other groups, such as high school dropouts, rural consumers, and consumers over 60. Sensitivity to international price shocks varies widely, implying movements in exchange rates and foreign prices, both during our sample and ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1380

Report
Rational speculators and exchange rate volatility
Osler, Carol L.; Carlson, John A. (1996-05-01)
This paper examines whether rational, fully informed speculators will smooth exchange rates. Friedman's (1953) claim that they must do so is challenged, based on the exclusion of interest rate differentials from his interpretation of speculator behavior. Once one recognizes that interest rates matter to speculators, it becomes apparent that rational speculators could sometimes violate Friedman's description of their behavior, and buy currency when its value is relatively high or sell currency when its value is low. For this reason the presence of rational, fully informed speculators may ...
Staff Reports , Paper 13

Working Paper
In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate
Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan; Oh, Hyunseung (2022-04-13)
We uncover the major drivers of each macroeconomic variable and the real exchange rate at the business cycle frequency in G7 countries. In each country, the main drivers of key macro variables resemble each other and none of those account for a large fraction of the real exchange rate variances. We then estimate the dominant driver of the real exchange rate and find that (i) the shock is largely orthogonal to macro variables and (ii) the shock generates a significant deviation of the uncovered interest parity condition. We analyze international business cycle models that are consistent with ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-09

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