Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios
Bertaut, Carol C.; Curcuru, Stephanie E.; Faia, Ester; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier (2024-11-13)
We provide new estimates of the return on US external claims and liabilities using confidential, high-quality, security-level data. The excess return is positive on average, since claims are tilted toward higher-return equities. The excess return is large and positive in normal times but large and negative during global crises, reflecting the global insurance role of the US external balance sheet. Controlling for issuer's nationality, we find that US investors have a larger exposure to equity issued by Asia-headquartered corporations than reported in the aggregate statistics. Finally, equity ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1398

Working Paper
The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
Zhang, Yixiang; Martínez García, Enrique (2024-09-25)
We find empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB). The estimated marginal effect of the foreign holdings ratio on the U.S. long-term interest rate, particularly its long-run effect, appears to have become stronger during the ZLB regime than it was before. We argue that the leading explanation of this apparent break is the nonlinearity introduced by the ZLB. Motivated by theory, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 430

Working Paper
The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Van Patten, Diana (2024-09-19)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative impacts of Bretton Woods capital controls on global economic activity. It applies a three-region DSGE model consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) to measure de facto capital controls and analyze their effects. Counterfactual analyses show Bretton Woods controls significantly prevented ROW capital from flowing to the U.S., had large negative welfare effects on the U.S., raised welfare in the ROW, and increased global output. Why did the U.S. support controls, given lower welfare? By keeping capital in the ROW, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-042

Working Paper
Institutional Efficiency, Monitoring Costs, and the Investment Share of FDI
Aizenman, Joshua; Spiegel, Mark M. (2003-03-01)
This paper models and tests the implications of institutional efficiency on the pattern of foreign direct investment (FDI). We posit that domestic agents have a comparative advantage over foreign agents in overcoming some of the obstacles associated with corruption and weak institutions. We model these circumstances in a principal-agent framework with costly ex-post monitoring and enforcement of an ex-ante labor contract. Ex-post monitoring and enforcement costs are assumed to be lower for domestic entrepreneurs than for foreign ones, but foreign producers enjoy a countervailing productivity ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2003-06

Working Paper
Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Benchimol, Jonathan (2020-05-28)
Uncertainty about an economy’s regime can change drastically around a crisis. An imported crisis such as the global financial crisis in the euro area highlights the effect of foreign shocks. Estimating an open-economy nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the euro area and the United States including Markov-switching volatility shocks, we show that these shocks were significant during the global financial crisis compared with periods of calm. We describe how U.S. shocks from both the real economy and financial markets affected the euro area economy and how bond ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 386

Working Paper
Current Account Dynamics under Information Rigidity and Imperfect Capital Mobility
Tsuruga, Takayuki; Shintani, Mototsugu; Shibata, Akihisa (2018-01-01)
The current account in developed countries is highly persistent and volatile in comparison to output growth. The standard intertemporal current account model with rational expectations (RE) fails to account for the observed current account dynamics together with persistent changes in consumption. The RE model extended with imperfect capital mobility by Shibata and Shintani (1998) can account for persistent changes in consumption, but only at the cost of the explanatory power for the volatility of the current account. This paper replaces RE in the intertemporal current account model with ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 335

Report
What determines the composition of international bank flows?
Niepmann, Friederike; Kerl, Cornelia (2014-07-01)
Several recent studies document that the extent to which banks transmit shocks across borders depends on the type of foreign activities these banks engage in. This paper proposes a model to explain the composition of banks? foreign activities, distinguishing between international interbank lending, intrabank lending, and cross-border lending to foreign firms. The model shows that the different activities are jointly determined and depend on the efficiencies of countries? banking sectors, differences in the return on loans across countries, and impediments to foreign bank operations. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 681

Working Paper
Effect of Ownership Composition on Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Chinese Investment Boom in US Housing Markets
Sakong, Jung (2021-08-16)
A capital influx into local housing markets would be expected to increase house prices, but the spillover effect onto rental prices is theoretically ambiguous. I estimate both price impacts in U.S. residential housing markets using data from a boom in real estate purchases by buyers from China, which amounted to $200 billion of purchases made between 2010 and 2019. Using a novel method to measure these purchases and an instrumental variable for where purchases are made, I find a large positive house price impact. Consistent with investment q-theory, rents fall as constructions rise, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2021-12

Working Paper
The Consequences of Bretton Woods’ International Capital Controls and the High Value of Geopolitical Stability
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Van Patten, Diana (2022-09-28)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of international capital controls on global and regional economic activity under The Bretton Woods international financial system and thereafter. A three region, open economy, DSGE capital flows accounting framework consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World, is developed to identify capital controls and quantify their impact. We find these controls had large positive and normative effects by restricting international capital flows. Counterfactual analyses show world output would have been 0.6% higher had there ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-042

Report
Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America
Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J. (2018-05-14)
After World War II, international capital flowed into slow-growing Latin America rather than fast-growing Asia. This is surprising as, everything else equal, fast growth should imply high capital returns. This paper develops a capital flow accounting framework to quantify the role of different factor market distortions in producing these patterns. Surprisingly, we find that distortions in labor markets ? rather than domestic or international capital markets ? account for the bulk of these flows. Labor market distortions that indirectly depress investment incentives by lowering equilibrium ...
Staff Report , Paper 563

show more (53)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords