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Journal Article
Will Tariffs Touch Off an Inflationary Impulse? Business Execs Think So.
Meyer, Brent; Jalca, Aaron; Sparks, Michael; Wiczer, David (2025-08-21)
Following the inflationary surge from 2021 to 2023, which was touched off by supply chain constraints and shipping bottlenecks, we evaluate a new panel of own-firm price and unit cost growth expectations in the Atlanta Fed's Survey of Business Uncertainty for signs that the anticipated impact from tariffs is broadening beyond directly affected firms. We find evidence for the potential of tariffs to touch off another bout of high inflation. First, firms that are directly exposed to tariffs have increased their year-ahead price growth expectations sharply (by 0.7 percentage points). Second, ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2025 , Issue 4 , Pages 20

Journal Article
How Credible Is Hong Kong's Currency Peg? Insights from Financial Market Prices
Wei, Bin; Jermann, Urban J.; Yue, Vivian Z. (2025-09-25)
This article presents a structural asset-pricing model that quantifies financial market perceptions of the credibility of Hong Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS). Using data from the foreign exchange market, the authors estimate the probability that the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) remains pegged to the US dollar (USD) and the value the HKD would take if the peg were to break. The analysis reveals multiple episodes when market confidence in the peg declined, with particularly sharp stress in late 2022 and mid-2025. In these periods, capital flows, interest rate differentials, and liquidity ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2025 , Issue 5 , Pages 10

Journal Article
The Price of Delay: Supply Disruptions, Product Availability, and Strategic Pricing during the Pandemic
Fuchs, Simon; Baslandze, Salomé (2026-06-25)
During 2020–23, firms did not just face higher costs but faced an unusually tight constraint on product availability. Imports often did not arrive when expected, and port congestion and vessel delays made replenishment unusually uncertain. In Baslandze and Fuchs (2026), we study how these disruptions showed up in consumer prices using newly linked micro data that match shipment-level bills of lading to high-frequency consumer transaction prices. The evidence points to sizable pass-through from delivery shortfalls to prices, above and beyond the standard pass-through of costs. Prices also ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2026 , Issue 4 , Pages 16

Journal Article
Shipping Cost Shocks and US Producer Prices: Normal versus Crisis Pass-through
Gilchrist, Simon; Wei, Bin; Yue, Vivian Z.; Zakrajšek, Egon (2026-09-22)
This paper examines how fluctuations in shipping costs pass through to U.S. producer prices. We link confidential shipment-level import transactions from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database (LFTTD) to confidential firm-level producer prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index (PPI) microdata, constructing a monthly panel of more than 6,000 U.S. manufacturing importers from 2005 to 2022. Using local projections and Bartik-style instruments based on route-level shipping-cost variation, we find that pass-through to domestic producer prices is ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2026 , Issue 7 , Pages 54

Journal Article
Measuring Maritime Disruptions: A Route-Based Index of US Import Exposure
Fuchs, Simon; Leibovici, Fernando (2026-09-21)
We construct a monthly maritime pressure index that measures US import exposure to disruptions using public trade and vessel-traffic data. The index weights disruptions along shipping routes by the value of imports using those routes, showing which goods are exposed and where they enter the country. It peaked in January 2024, at about five times its 2022–23 average, as the Red Sea disruption coincided with drought restrictions at the Panama Canal. That episode exposed a broad range of nonenergy goods entering mainly through East Coast ports. The 2026 Hormuz disruption was narrower, ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2026 , Issue 9 , Pages 16

Journal Article
Tariffs and Consumer Prices: Insights from Newly Matched Consumption-Trade Micro Data
Pringle, KC; Fuchs, Simon; Sparks, Michael; Baslandze, Salomé (2025-02-28)
We evaluate the impact of various US tariff scenarios on consumer prices using novel micro-level data linking imports to consumer expenditures. Results indicate that an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10 percent tariff on other countries could raise consumer prices on everyday retail purchases, such as food and beverage items and general merchandise, covering about a quarter of the total consumption basket, by 0.81 percent to 1.63 percent, assuming half to full pass-through. Notably, tariffs on Canada and Mexico ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2025 , Issue 1 , Pages 17

Working Paper
The Price of Delay: Supply Chain Disruptions and Pricing Dynamics
Fuchs, Simon; Baslandze, Salomé (2025-09-24)
We study the role of supply chain disruptions in shaping consumer prices, focusing on both firms' own import shocks and strategic responses to competitors' disruptions. Using a newly constructed microlevel dataset that links transaction-level US import data from bills of lading with high-frequency consumer prices and sales from a consumer panel, we develop a novel approach to estimate the price effects of cost shocks and product availability. Motivated by a model of delivery delays, cost shocks, and firm pricing, we implement a shift-share identification strategy based on delivery shortfalls, ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-8

Working Paper
Industrial Policy and Capital Misallocation in Exporting
Kabir, Poorya; Müller, Karsten; Matray, Adrien; Xu, Chenzi (2026-08-24)
Trade financing through export credit agencies is a key tool of modern industrial policy. We provide a theory to evaluate its welfare effects, and we study its causal impact on trade, firm investment, and capital misallocation by using the effective shutdown of the US export credit agency from 2015 to 2019 as a natural experiment. First, we show that the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has large causal effects: comparing industries exposed and unexposed to the shutdown, we find that exposed industries experience a product-level export reduction of approximately $4.49 for each $1 lost in EXIM ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-12

Working Paper
Shipping Cost Shocks and US Producer Prices: Normal versus Crisis Pass-through
Gilchrist, Simon; Zakrajšek, Egon; Wei, Bin; Yue, Vivian Z. (2026-09-21)
This paper examines how shipping costs pass through to US producer prices. We link confidential shipment-level import transactions from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database (LFTTD) to confidential firm-level producer prices from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index (PPI) microdata, constructing a monthly panel of more than 6,000 US manufacturing importers from 2005 to 2022. Using local projections and Bartik-style instruments based on route-level shipping-cost variation, we find that pass-through to producer prices is negligible in normal times ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-13

Working Paper
Globalization and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Hollywood
Fuchs, Simon; Adler, Konrad (2022-10-06)
Linder (1961) conjectured that taste differences could impede trade flows. We extend Krugman (1980) to allow for producers that face taste heterogeneity with volatile demand. Consumers are characterized by different taste over product attributes and idiosyncratic risk. Firms face a portfolio type of problem where they trade off supplying the largest consumer groups against higher exposure to group-specific risk. We develop an empirical strategy to estimate consumer taste from observed market shares across multiple distinct markets of the same product, as well as the key parameters that pin ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-14

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