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Heterogeneous Agent Trade
Waugh, Michael E. (2023-10-18)
This paper studies the implications of household heterogeneity for trade. I develop a model where household heterogeneity is induced via incomplete markets and results in heterogeneous price elasticities. Conditional on exposure to trade, heterogeneous price elasticities imply that different households value price changes differently, and thus rich and poor households experience different gains from trade. I calibrate the model to match bilateral trade flows and micro-facts about household-level expenditure patterns and elasticities. I find gains from trade that are pro-poor and that the ...
Staff Report , Paper 653

Report
The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
Benigno, Gianluca; di Giovanni, Julian; Groen, Jan J. J.; Noble, Adam I. (2022-05-01)
We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index’s capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the local projection method. Our analysis shows that recent inflationary pressures are closely related to the behavior of the GSCPI, especially at the level of producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area.
Staff Reports , Paper 1017

Report
Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
di Giovanni, Julian; Hale, Galina (2020-11-01)
We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns of fifty-four sectors in twenty-six countries. We first present a conceptual framework based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a spillover pattern consistent with a spatial autoregression (SAR) process. We then use the SAR model to decompose the overall impact of U.S. monetary policy on stock returns into a direct and a network effect. We find that up to 80 percent of the total impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on average ...
Staff Reports , Paper 945

Working Paper
Why is Trade Not Free? A Revealed Preference Approach
Adão, Rodrigo; Costinot, Arnaud; Donaldson, Dave; Sturm, John (2024-05-20)
A prominent explanation for why trade is not free is politicians’ desire to protect some of their constituents at the expense of others. In this paper we develop a methodology that can be used to reveal the welfare weights that a nation’s import tariffs implicitly place on different groups of society. Applied in the context of the United States in 2017, this method implies that redistributive trade protection accounts for a significant fraction of US tariff variation and causes large monetary transfers between US individuals, mostly driven by differences in welfare weights across sectors ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 089

Working Paper
Financing Constraints, Firm Dynamics, and International Trade
Gross, Till; Verani, Stéphane (2013)
There is growing empirical support for the conjecture that access to credit is an important determinant of firms' export decisions. We study a multi-country general equilibrium economy in which entrepreneurs and lenders engage in long-term credit relationships. Financial constraints arise as a consequence of financial contracts that are optimal under private information. Consistent with empirical regularities, the model implies that older and larger firms have lower average and more stable growth rates, and are more likely to survive. Exporters are larger, their survival in international ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2013-02

Working Paper
What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models
Sager, Erick; Jaravel, Xavier (2019-09-20)
This paper finds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identification strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in import penetration from China causes a 1.91% decline in consumer prices. This price response is driven by declining markups for domestically-produced goods, and is one order of magnitude larger than in standard trade models that abstract from strategic price-setting. The estimates imply that trade with China increased U.S. consumer surplus by about $400,000 per displaced job, and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-068

Working Paper
Comparative Advantage in Innovation and Production
Somale, Mariano A. (2017-05)
This paper develops a multi-country, general equilibrium, semi endogenous growth model of innovation and trade in which specialization in innovation and production are jointly determined. The distinctive element of the model is the ability of the agents to direct their research efforts to specific goods, in a context of heterogeneous innovation capabilities across countries and contemporaneous decreasing returns to R&D. The model features a two-way relationship between trade and technology absent in standard quantitative Ricardian trade models. I calibrate the model using a sample of 29 ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1206

Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions
Ulate, Mauricio; Vasquez, Jose P.; Zarate, Roman D. (2023-02-27)
We examine the labor market consequences of recent global supply chain disruptions induced by COVID-19. Specifically, we consider a temporary increase in international trade costs similar to the one observed during the pandemic and analyze its effects on labor market outcomes using a quantitative trade model with downward nominal wage rigidities. Even omitting any health related impacts of the pandemic, the increase in trade costs leads to a temporary but prolonged decline in U.S. labor force participation. However, there is a temporary increase in manufacturing employment as the United ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-08

Journal Article
Sectoral Impacts of Trade Wars
Wang, Ping; Cheng, Wan-Jung (2022)
In recent years, we have witnessed rising trade protectionism with broad ranges of tariffs imposed on intermediate products. In this article, we develop an accounting framework to evaluate the sectoral impacts of the current U.S.-China trade war. We find that U.S. final demand and intermediate demand for goods produced by China decline significantly, with the largest losses occurring in the Electronic and ICT (information and communications technology) industry and the Electrical industry. We obtain sizable deadweight losses for the United States, particularly in the Electronic and ICT; ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 1 , Pages 17-40

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Discrete Choice, Complete Markets, and Equilibrium
Mongey, Simon; Waugh, Michael E. (2024-02-07)
This paper characterizes the allocations that emerge in general equilibrium economies populated by households with preferences of the additive random utility type that make discrete consumption, employment or spatial decisions. We start with a complete markets economy where households can trade claims contingent upon the realizations of their preference shocks. We (i) establish a first and second welfare theorem, (ii) illustrate that in the absence of ex-ante trade, discrete choice economies are generically inefficient, (iii) show that complete markets are not necessary and a much smaller set ...
Staff Report , Paper 656

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