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Working Paper
Private Information and Optimal Infant Industry Protection
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Zhang, Yuzhe (2024-04-18)
We study infant industry protection using a dynamic model in which the industry's cost is initially higher than that of foreign competitors. The industry can stochastically lower its cost via learning by doing. Whether the industry has transitioned to low cost is private information. Using a mechanism-design approach, we solve for the optimal protection policy that induces the industry to reveal its true cost. We show that (i) the optimal protection, measured by infant industry output, declines over time and is less than that under public information, (ii) the optimal protection policy is ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-013

Working Paper
Private Information and Optimal Infant Industry Protection
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Zhang, Yuzhe (2022-05-20)
We study infant industry protection using a dynamic model in which the industry's cost is initially higher than that of foreign competitors. The industry can stochastically lower its cost via learning by doing. Whether the industry has transitioned to low cost is private information. We use a mechanism-design approach to induce the industry to reveal its true cost. We show that (i) the optimal protection, measured by infant industry output, declines over time and is less than that under public information, (ii) the optimal protection policy is time consistent under public information but not ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-013

Journal Article
The Economic Effects of the 2018 U.S. Trade Policy: A State-Level Analysis
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Peake, Makenzie (2020-10-22)
We evaluate, empirically, the effect of changes in trade policy during the 2018-19 trade war on U.S. economic activity. We begin by documenting that sectors and states across the United States are heterogeneous in their exposure to international trade. To do that, we construct a measure of exposure that combines the share of a sector’s gross output that is accounted for by trade with the pattern of comparative advantage of each state in that sector. We then exploit cross-state heterogeneity in exposure to international trade and correlate it with measures of economic activity across U.S. ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 4 , Pages 385-412

Working Paper
Private Information and Optimal Infant Industry Protection
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Zhang, Yuzhe (2026-03-08)
We study infant industry protection using a dynamic model in which the industry’s cost is initially higher than that of foreign competitors. The industry can stochastically lower its cost via learning by doing. Whether the industry has transitioned to low cost is private information. Using a mechanism-design approach, we solve for the optimal protection policy that induces the industry to reveal its true cost. We show that (i) optimal protection, measured by infant industry output, declines over time and is less than that under public information and (ii) eventual viability of the infant ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-013

Working Paper
Diversification and specialization of U.S. states
Koech, Janet; Wynne, Mark A. (2016-09-01)
This paper documents the evolution of the international relationships of individual U.S. states along three dimensions: trade, migration, and finance. We examine how specialized or diversified state economies differ in terms of the products they export and with whom they trade, the origins of the immigrants who live in the state, and the origins of the foreign banks operating in the state. We show that states that are diversified along one of these dimensions are often quite specialized along others. New York is?perhaps, not surprisingly?the most diversified state in terms of global linkages.
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 284

Working Paper
On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs
Carroll, Daniel R.; Hur, Sewon (2023-02-13)
We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the US and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth, and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor, and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1 percent reduction in consumption. Much larger welfare losses are concentrated among retirees and low-wealth households, while only wealthy ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-18R2

Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Leibovici, Fernando; Adamopoulos, Tasso (2024-02)
We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Working Paper
Trade Integration, Global Value Chains, and Capital Accumulation
Zhang, Jing; Yi, Kei-Mu; Sposi, Michael (2020-11-13)
Motivated by increasing trade and fragmentation of production across countries since World War II, we build a dynamic two-country model featuring sequential, multi-stage production and capital accumulation. As trade costs decline over time, global-value-chain (GVC) trade expands across countries, particularly more in the faster growing country, consistent with the empirical pattern. The presence of GVC trade boosts capital accumulation and economic growth and magnifies dynamic gains from trade. At the same time, endogenous capital accumulation shapes comparative advantage across countries, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-26

Working Paper
What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models
Sager, Erick; Jaravel, Xavier (2019-09-20)
This paper finds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identification strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in import penetration from China causes a 1.91% decline in consumer prices. This price response is driven by declining markups for domestically-produced goods, and is one order of magnitude larger than in standard trade models that abstract from strategic price-setting. The estimates imply that trade with China increased U.S. consumer surplus by about $400,000 per displaced job, and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-068

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