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Working Paper
“Conditional PPP” and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area
Wu, Jyh-Lin; Glick, Reuven; Bergin, Paul R. (2016-10-18)
While economic theory highlights the usefulness of flexible exchange rates in promoting adjustment in international relative prices, flexible exchange rates also can be a source of destabilizing shocks. We find that when countries joining the euro currency union abandoned their national exchange rates, the adjustment of real exchange rates toward their long-run equilibrium surprisingly became faster. To investigate, we distinguish between differing rates of purchasing power parity (PPP) convergence conditional on alternative shocks, which we refer to as ?conditional PPP.? We find that the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-29

Discussion Paper
Does China’s Zero Covid Strategy Mean Zero Economic Growth?
Clark, Hunter L.; Lin, Lawrence (2022-06-02)
The Chinese government has followed a “zero covid strategy” (ZCS) ever since the world’s first COVID-19 lockdowns ended in China around late March and early April of 2020. While this strategy has been effective at maintaining low infection levels and robust manufacturing and export activity, its viability is being severely strained by the spread of increasingly infectious coronavirus variants. As a result, there now appears to be a fundamental incompatibility between the ZCS and the government’s economic growth objectives.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220602

Discussion Paper
Has the Pandemic Reduced U.S. Remittances Going to Latin America?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2020-11-09)
Workers' remittances—funds that migrants send to their country of birth—are an important source of income for a number of economies in Latin America, with the bulk of these funds coming from the United States. Have these flows dried up, given the COVID-19 recession and resulting unprecedented job losses? We find that remittances initially faltered but rebounded in the summer months, performing better than during the last U.S. recession despite more severe job losses. Large government income support payments probably explain some of this resilience. Whether remittances continue to hold up ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201109

Discussion Paper
What’s Driving the Recent Slump in U.S. imports?
Amiti, Mary; Lewis, Logan T.; Bodine-Smith, Tyler; Hottman, Colin J. (2016-11-07)
The growth in U.S. imports of goods has been stubbornly low since the second quarter of 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 0.7 percent. Growth has been even weaker for non-oil imports, which have increased at an average annual rate of only 0.1 percent. This is in sharp contrast to the pattern in the five quarters preceding the second quarter of 2015, when real non-oil imports were growing at an annualized rate of 8 percent per quarter. The timing of the weakness in import growth is particularly puzzling in light of the strong U.S. dollar, which appreciated 12 percent in 2015, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161107

Discussion Paper
Does Import Competition Improve the Quality of Domestic Goods?
Khandelwal, Amit; Amiti, Mary (2013-04-08)
Firms must produce high-quality goods to be competitive in international markets, but how do they transition from producing low- to high-quality goods? In a new study (?Import Competition and Quality Upgrading,? forthcoming in the Review of Economics and Statistics), we focus on how tougher import competition affects firms? decisions to upgrade the quality of their goods. Our results, which we summarize in this post, show that stiffer import competition affects quality-upgrading decisions. For firms already producing very high-quality goods, lower tariffs induce them to produce goods of even ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130408

Discussion Paper
Did Trade Finance Contribute to the Global Trade Collapse?
Amiti, Mary; Weinstein, David E. (2011-06-29)
The financial crisis of 2008-09 brought about one of the largest collapses in world trade since the end of World War II. Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, the value of real global GDP fell 4.6 percent while exports plummeted 17 percent, as can be seen in the chart below. The dramatic decline in world trade—a loss of $761 billion in nominal exports—came through two channels: decreased demand for imports and supply effects, most likely arising from financial constraints. In this post, we look at evidence that supply effects, including curtailed funding for ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110629

Discussion Paper
An Update on the U.S.–China Phase One Trade Deal
Clark, Hunter L. (2021-10-06)
A Liberty Street Economics post from last summer by Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard contained an assessment of the Phase One trade agreement between the United States and China. The authors of that note found that, depending on how successfully the deal was implemented, the impact on U.S. economic growth could have been substantially larger than originally foreseen by many of its critics, as a result of the fact that the pandemic had depressed the U.S. economy far below its potential growth path. Here we take another look at these considerations with the benefit of an additional year’s ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211006

Discussion Paper
An Examination of U.S. Dollar Declines
Groen, Jan J. J.; Bowman, Roosevelt D. (2011-09-26)
Although the dollar strengthened somewhat recently, its level relative to the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners is nonetheless 11 percent lower than it was at the start of 2009. This represents one of the more pronounced periods of dollar weakness over the past two decades and consequently has garnered considerable attention from market participants and policymakers alike. In this post, we examine the role of market uncertainty and currency risk premia in the pace and size of episodes of dollar weakness since 1991. We find that the most recent bout of U.S. dollar ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110926

Discussion Paper
Do Exchange Rates Fully Reflect Currency Pressures?
Goldberg, Linda S.; Kalisa, Stone (2022-11-10)
Currency values are important both for the real economy and the financial sector. When faced with currency market pressures, some central banks and finance ministries turn to foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in an effort to reduce realized currency depreciation, thus diminishing its economic and financial consequences. This post provides insights into how effective these interventions might be in limiting currency depreciation.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20221110a

Discussion Paper
Is There Discount Window Stigma in the United Kingdom?
Sarkar, Asani; Lee, Helene (2016-09-12)
At the onset of the financial crisis in the summer of 2007, news that Barclays had borrowed from the Bank of England (BoE) received wide media coverage. This information triggered concerns that the BoE's lending facility may have become stigmatized, prompting market participants to interpret borrowing from the BoE as a sign of financial weakness. If such stigma discouraged borrowing, of course, it would defeat the purpose of the facility. We review the history of the BoE's lending facilities and experiences with stigma, both historically and in the recent period. We also compare the BoE's and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160912

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