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Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Altig, David E.; Baker, Scott Brent; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nick; Bunn, Philip; Chen, Scarlet; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Mizen, Paul; Parker, Nicholas B.; Renault, Thomas; Smietanka, Pawel; Thwaites, Gregory (2020-07-10)
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and disagreement among professional forecasters about future gross domestic product growth. Three results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-9

Speech
The regional economic outlook
Dudley, William (2015-08-26)
Remarks by William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer, New York, New York.
Speech , Paper 178

Working Paper
Saving Europe?: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Austerity in Integrated Economies
Zhang, Jing; Tesar, Linda L.; Mendoza, Enrique G. (2014-10-06)
What are the macroeconomic effects of tax adjustments in response to large public debt shocks in highly integrated economies? The answer from standard closed-economy models is deceptive, because they underestimate the elasticity of capital tax revenues and ignore cross-country spillovers of tax changes. Instead, we examine this issue using a two-country model that matches the observed elasticity of the capital tax base by introducing endogenous capacity utilization and a partial depreciation allowance. Tax hikes have adverse effects on macro aggregates and welfare, and trigger strong ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-13

Report
Would protectionism defuse global imbalances and spur economic activity?: a scenario analysis
Laxton, Douglas; Pesenti, Paolo; Muir, Dirk; Faruqee, Hamid (2006)
In the evolving analysis of global imbalances, the possibility that countries will resort to increased protectionism is often mentioned but rarely analyzed. This paper attempts to fill that gap, examining the macroeconomic implications of a shift to protectionist policies through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy that encompasses four regional blocs. Simulation exercises are carried out to assess the consequences of imposing uniform and discriminatory tariffs on trading partners as well as the consequences of tariff retaliation. We also discuss a scenario in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 268

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2001 annual revision
Morin, Norman J.; Corrado, Carol; Gilbert, Charles (2002-03)
In late 2001, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published the annual revision of its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 to October 2001. The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more-comprehensive source data and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series. ; Measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter, increases in rates of industrial output and capacity have been revised downward from rates previously reported for 1999 and 2000. The revision ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 88 , Issue Mar , Pages 173-187

Speech
Workforce development and reinvention in the Rochester economy
Dudley, William (2015-08-12)
Remarks before the Rochester Business Alliance, Rochester, New York.
Speech , Paper 177

Journal Article
U.S. international transactions in 1999
Warnock, Francis E. (2000-05)
The U.S. current account deficit increased substantially in 1999 as the balances on goods and services, investment income, and unilateral transfers all became more negative. The remarkable strength of the U.S. economy contributed significantly to a marked decrease in the balance on goods and services; to a lesser extent, previous declines in U.S. price competitiveness also played a role. The balance on investment income decreased because of the additional net income payments on the growing U.S. external indebtedness. In 2000, domestic spending may well continue to outstrip domestic production ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 86 , Issue May , Pages 301-314

Working Paper
How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?
Oliner, Stephen D.; Sichel, Daniel E.; Byrne, David M. (2017-01)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that the performance of microprocessor units (MPUs) has continued to improve at a rapid pace. Over the course of the 2000s, the MPU prices posted by Intel, the dominant producer of MPUs, became much stickier over the chips' life cycle. As a result of this change, we argue that the matched-model methodology ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-005

Working Paper
The forecasting power of consumer attitudes for consumer spending
Olivei, Giovanni P.; Barnes, Michelle L. (2014-10-30)
The widely studied Reuters/Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is constructed from the answers to five questions from the more comprehensive Reuters/Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Yet little work has been done on what predictive power the information taken from this more thorough compilation of consumer attitudes and expectations may have for forecasting consumption expenditures. The authors construct a limited set of real-time summary measures for 42 questions selected from these broader Surveys corresponding to three broad economic determinants of consumption?income and wealth, prices, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-10

Speech
The national and regional economy
Dudley, William (2015-04-06)
Remarks at the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, Newark, New Jersey.
Speech , Paper 161

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