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Working Paper
Macroelasticities and the U.S. sequestration budget cuts
Zarazaga, Carlos E. (2014-11-01)
Microeconomic studies keep reporting that the intertemporal substitution in consumption and the Frisch elasticity of aggregate labor supply have significantly lower values than macroeconomic models find consistent with the dynamics of aggregate variables. The paper argues that in the U.S. such dynamics have been influenced since 2013 by the temporary spending cuts imposed by the so-called budget sequestration. The paper exploits the "policy experiment" features of that measure to gauge macroelasticity values from the evidence associated with it, adopting to that effect a macroeconomic model ...
Working Papers , Paper 1412

Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Kumar, Anil; Liang, Che-Yuan (2019-05-16)
We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Using state-level as well as micro data and the synthetic control approach, we find that easier access to housing credit led to a notably lower labor force participation rate between 1998 and 2007. We show that our findings are remarkably robust to improved synthetic control methods based on insights from machine learning. We explore treatment effect heterogeneity ...
Working Papers , Paper 1810

Working Paper
Health-care reform or labor market reform? a quantitative analysis of the Affordable Care Act
Tuzemen, Didem; Nakajima, Makoto (2015-09-01)
An equilibrium model with ?rm and worker heterogeneity is constructed to analyze labor market and welfare implications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). Our model implies a signi?cant reduction in the uninsured rate from 22.6 percent to 5.6 percent. {{p}} The model predicts a moderate positive welfare gain from the ACA, due to redistribution of income through Health Insurance Subsidies at the Exchange as well as Medicaid expansion. About 2.1 million more part-time jobs are created under the ACA, in expense of 1.6 million full-time jobs, mainly because the link between ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-10

Working Paper
Government Banks and Interventions in Credit Markets
Joaquim, Gustavo; Netto, Felipe; Ornelas, José Renato Haas (2022-09-01)
We study a large-scale quasi-experiment in the Brazilian banking sector characterized by an unexpected and macroeconomically relevant increase in lending by commercial government banks. Using credit registry data, we find that this intervention led to a reduction in lending rates, but it did not lead to a change in private banks’ credit supply. Firms reliant on government banks experienced a substantial increase in debt, and government banks faced a large increase in loan defaults driven by indebted firms. We find a small increase in employment at the firm level, suggesting limited direct ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-20

Report
How Did the MSLP Borrowers Fare Before and During COVID-19?
Wang, J. Christina; Ballance, Joshua; Qing, Melanie (2021-09-08)
This policy brief uses Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) data to assess whether the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) borrowers were in worse financial health than their peers before COVID-19 hit the economy hard in March 2020 or suffered worse deterioration afterward. The findings can help us better understand why these firms sought to obtain MSLP loans. We find that MSLP borrowers tend to be larger than their peer firms (that is, firms in the same industry and state). Within the same size group, MSLP borrowers are on average younger than their peers. Borrowers tended to have a slightly higher ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Working Paper
Business Formation: A Tale of Two Recessions
Dunne, Timothy; Penciakova, Veronika; Haltiwanger, John; Dinlersoz, Emin M. (2021-01-29)
The trajectory of new business applications and transitions to employer businesses differ markedly during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 recession. Both applications and transitions to employer startups decreased slowly but persistently in the post-Lehman crisis period of the Great Recession. In contrast, during the COVID-19 recession new applications initially declined but have since sharply rebounded, resulting in a surge in applications during 2020. Projected transitions to employer businesses also rise, but this projection is dampened by a change in the composition of applications ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-5

Journal Article
Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Interest Rate
Gavin, William T. (2018)
During the period from 1965 to the end of 2015, the Federal Reserve operated monetary policy in a variety of ways associated with four distinct monetary policy regimes.
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 2 , Pages 151-69

Working Paper
Risk Management in Monetary Policymaking: The 1994-95 Fed Tightening Episode
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2023-12)
The 1994-95 Fed tightening episode was one of the most notable in the Fed’s history. First, the FOMC raised the policy rate by 300 basis points in a year, even though headline and core inflation were trending lower prior to the liftoff that occurred in February 1994. Second, the Fed’s actions caught the Treasury market by surprise, triggering a sharp decline in long-term bond prices. Third, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and the Federal Open Market Committee were regularly surprised that inflation was not rising by more than the forecasts suggested during the episode. This article presents some ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-030

Report
Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks
Fogli, Alessandra; Azzimonti-Renzo, Marina; Perri, Fabrizio; Ponder, Mark (2020-08-19)
We develop an ECON-EPI network model to evaluate policies designed to improve health and economic outcomes during a pandemic. Relative to the standard epidemiological SIR set-up, we explicitly model social contacts among individuals and allow for heterogeneity in their number and stability. In addition, we embed the network in a structural economic model describing how contacts generate economic activity. We calibrate it to the New York metro area during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis and show three main results. First, the ECON-EPI network implies patterns of infections that better match the data ...
Staff Report , Paper 609

Working Paper
The Household Expenditure Response to a Consumption Tax Rate Increase
Cashin, David B. (2017-03-28)
This study measures the effect of an increase in Japan's Value Added Tax rate on the timing of household expenditures and consumption, which do not necessarily coincide. The analysis finds that durable and storable expenditures surged in the month prior to the tax rate increase, fell sharply upon implementation, but quickly returned to their previous long-run levels. Non-storable non-durable expenditures increased slightly in the month prior to the tax rate increase, but were otherwise unresponsive. A dynamic structural model of household consumption reveals that the observed expenditure ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-035

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