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Working Paper
When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases
Pfajfar, Damjan; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Berge, Travis J.
(2020-03-27)
We synthesize the recent, at times conflicting, empirical literature regarding whether fiscal policy is more effective during certain points in the business cycle. Evidence of state dependence in the multiplier depends critically on how the business cycle is defined. Estimates of the fiscal multiplier do not change when the unemployment rate is above or below its trend. However, we find that the multiplier is higher when the unemployment rate is increasing relative to when it is decreasing. This result holds using both a long time-series at the U.S. national level and for a panel of U.S. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-026
Working Paper
How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal Policy Rules
Martin, Fernando M.
(2022-09-14)
Countries have widely imposed fiscal rules designed to constrain government spending and ensure fiscal responsibility. This paper studies the effectiveness and welfare implications of revenue, deficit and debt rules when governments are discretionary and prone to overspending. The optimal prescription is a revenue ceiling coupled with a balance budget requirement. For the U.S., the optimal revenue ceiling is about 15% of output, 3 percentage points below the postwar average. Most of the benefits can still be reaped with a milder constraint or escape clauses during adverse times. Imposing a ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2019-026
Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian
(2023-02-21)
Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock lead to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-018
Working Paper
Household's Balance Sheets and the Effect of Fiscal Policy
Andres, Javier; Bosca, Jose E.; Ferri, Javier; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina
(2020-06-29)
Using households' balance sheet composition in the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, we identify six household types. Since 1999, there has been a decline in the share of patient households and an increase in the share of impatient households with negative wealth. Using a six-agent New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions, we explore how changes in households' shares affect the transmission of government spending shocks. We show that the relative share of households in the left tail of the wealth distribution plays a key role in the aggregate marginal propensity to consume, the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2018-012r1
Working Paper
Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Tax Rate Changes
Bhattarai, Saroj; Lee, Jae Won; Park, Woong Yong; Yang, Choongryul
(2022-05-20)
We study aggregate, distributional, and welfare effects of a permanent reduction in the capital tax rate in a quantitative model with capital-skill complementarity and household heterogeneity. Such a tax reform leads to expansionary long-run aggregate output and investment effects, but those are coupled with increases in wage, consumption, and income inequality. The tax reform is not self-financing and its effects depend crucially on whether the government cuts lump-sum transfers or raises distortionary labor or consumption tax rates for financing. The former results in a larger aggregate ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2022-027
Working Paper
Vocational Considerations and Trends in Social Security Disability
Nelson, Jaeger; Michaud, Amanda M.; Wiczer, David
(2016-10-16)
Along with health, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) evaluates work-limiting disability by considering vocational factors including age, education, and past work experience. As the number of SSDI applicants and awards has increased, these vocational criteria are increasingly important to acceptances and denials. A unique state-level dataset allows us to estimate how these factors relate to the SSDI award process. These estimates are used to asses how changes to the demographic and occupational composition have contributed to awards trends. In our results, the prevalence of workers ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2016-18
Working Paper
Political Connections, Allocation of Stimulus Spending, and the Jobs Multiplier
Choi, Joonkyu; Saffie, Felipe; Penciakova, Veronika
(2021-01-29)
Using American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) data, we show that firms lever their political connections to win stimulus grants and public expenditure channeled through politically connected firms hinders job creation. We build a unique database that links campaign contributions and state legislative election outcomes to ARRA grant allocation. Using exogenous variation in political connections based on ex-post close elections held before ARRA, we causally show that politically connected firms are 64 percent more likely to secure a grant. Based on an instrumental variable approach, we ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2021-005
Working Paper
Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles
Weber, Caroline; Sly, Nicholas
(2015-08-01)
Using a 30-year panel of quarterly GDP ?uctuations from of a broad set of countries, we demonstrate that the signing of a bilateral tax treaty increases the comovement of treaty partners' business cycles by 1/2 a standard deviation. This e?ect of ?scal policy is as large as the e?ect of trade linkages on comovement, and stronger than the e?ects of several other common ?nancial and investment linkages. We also show that bilateral tax treaties increase comovement in shocks to nations? GDP trends, demonstrating the permanent e?ects of coordination on ?scal policy rules. We estimate trend and ...
Research Working Paper
, Paper RWP 15-7
Working Paper
Proxy SVARs: Asymptotic Theory, Bootstrap Inference, and the Effects of Income Tax Changes in the United States
Lunsford, Kurt Graden; Jentsch, Carsen
(2016-07-19)
Proxy structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identify structural shocks in vector autoregressions (VARs) with external proxy variables that are correlated with the structural shocks of interest but uncorrelated with other structural shocks. We provide asymptotic theory for proxy SVARs when the VAR innovations and proxy variables are jointly ?-mixing. We also prove the asymptotic validity of a residual-based moving block bootstrap (MBB) for inference on statistics that depend jointly on estimators for the VAR coefficients and for covariances of the VAR innovations and proxy variables. These ...
Working Papers (Old Series)
, Paper 1619
Working Paper
Conservatism and Liquidity Traps
Schmidt, Sebastian; Nakata, Taisuke
(2014-11-12)
Appointing Rogoff's (1985) conservative central banker improves welfare if the economy is subject to large contractionary shocks and the policy rate occasionally falls to the zero lower bound (ZLB). In an economy with occasionally binding ZLB constraints, the anticipation of future ZLB episodes creates a trade-off between inflation and output stabilization. As a consequence, inflation systematically falls below target even when the policy rate is above zero. A conservative central banker mitigates this deflationary bias away from the ZLB, improving allocations both at and away from the ZLB ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2014-105
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Active-set algorithm 1 items
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Arab World 1 items
Argentina 1 items
Asset directed search 1 items
Asset liquidity 1 items
Augmented Unemployment Insurance Benefits 1 items
Bayesian VARs 1 items
Bayesian analysis 1 items
Bayesian estimation 1 items
Bayesian methods 1 items
Bilateral Tax Treaties 1 items
Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition 1 items
C-means 1 items
Capital flows 1 items
Carbon taxation 1 items
Central Bank 1 items
Chinese Economy 1 items
Collateral constraint 1 items
Consumption expenditure 1 items
Corporate taxation 1 items
Countercyclical policy 1 items
Credibility 1 items
Credible policy 1 items
Credit Risk 1 items
Cross-country differences in market hours 1 items
Cross-sectional analysis 1 items
Cumulative abnormal returns 1 items
DSGE model 1 items
Database 1 items
Decline 1 items
Deficits 1 items
Deflationary bias 1 items
Demographic Decomposition 1 items
Dependent fiscal policy effects 1 items
Distortionary financing 1 items
Domestic law 1 items
Earned income tax credit 1 items
Economic Development 1 items
Economic development, technological change, and growth 1 items
Economic geography 1 items
Economic growth 1 items
Economic stimulus 1 items
Education reform 1 items
Epstein-Zin 1 items
Equality of opportunity 1 items
Eurobonds 1 items
European Monetary Union 1 items
European debt crisis 1 items
Event study 1 items
Excess returns 1 items
Federal Procurement 1 items
Federal Reserve System 1 items
Financial constraints 1 items
Financial recession 1 items
Financial services industry 1 items
Financing constraints 1 items
Fiscal 1 items
Fiscal Limit 1 items
Fiscal Policy Relief Programs 1 items
Fiscal Sustainability 1 items
Fiscal Union 1 items
Fiscal consolidation 1 items
Fiscal uncertainty 1 items
Flat tax 1 items
Forecasting 1 items
GDP 1 items
Generational accounts 1 items
Global VARs 1 items
Government budget 1 items
Granularity 1 items
Great depression 1 items
Greek Depression 1 items
Health care 1 items
Heterogeneous discount factors 1 items
Household heterogeneity 1 items
Inflation (Finance) - United States 1 items
Inflation bias 1 items
Inflationary Finance 1 items
Information 1 items
Interest rate normalization 1 items
Intergenerational mobility 1 items
International Business Cycles 1 items
International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1 items
International Risk Sharing 1 items
International finance 1 items
International spillovers 1 items
Intertemporal substitution 1 items
Job destruction 1 items
K-12 education 1 items
Labor and demographic economics 1 items
Labor income 1 items
Labor market participation 1 items
Laffer curve 1 items
Liquidity 1 items
Liquidity trap 1 items
Local finance 1 items
Local labor markets 1 items
Long run 1 items
Long-term care insurance 1 items
MLF 1 items
Macroeconomic and financial spillovers 1 items
Markov chain 1 items
Measurement error 1 items
Medicaid Matching Grants 1 items
Medicare 1 items
Mercalli scale 1 items
Middle East 1 items
Migration 1 items
Mirrlees taxation 1 items
Model uncertainty 1 items
Monetary Union 1 items
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination 1 items
Monetary and fiscal policy interaction 1 items
Monetary and macroprudential policies 1 items
Monetary policy cooperation 1 items
Monetary-fiscal coordination 1 items
Monetary-fiscal interactions 1 items
Monetary-fiscal policy mix 1 items
Monopsonistic competition 1 items
Monopsony 1 items
Multidimensional screening 1 items
Municipal Bonds 1 items
Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF) 1 items
Narrative approach 1 items
Narrative shocks 1 items
Natural Experiments 1 items
Natural disasters 1 items
New Keynesian 1 items
New Keynesian model 1 items
Nominal anchor 1 items
Nominal rigidity 1 items
North Africa 1 items
Occupational Choice 1 items
Optimal Inflation Target 1 items
Optimal income taxation 1 items
Paternalism 1 items
Paycheck Protection Program 1 items
Pension reform 1 items
Policy Delegation 1 items
Power law models 1 items
Preference heterogeneity 1 items
Present bias 1 items
Price level 1 items
Private insurance 1 items
Productive capital stocks 1 items
Progressive tax and transfer system 1 items
Putty-clay capital 1 items
Quasi-geometry 1 items
R&D investment 1 items
Ramsey redistribution 1 items
Ramsey steady state 1 items
Rate of return heterogeneity 1 items
Recession 1 items
Regional economies 1 items
Regional labor markets 1 items
Research and Development 1 items
Revenue 1 items
Ricardian equivalence 1 items
SPR 1 items
SVAR 1 items
Savings 1 items
School access 1 items
Sectoral Heterogeneity 1 items
Six-agent New Keynesian model 1 items
Social welfare functions 1 items
Sovereign Debt Default 1 items
Spatial economics 1 items
Stabilization bias 1 items
State Government 1 items
State Revenue 1 items
Steady state 1 items
Stimulus Checks 1 items
Sunset provision 1 items
Sunspot Equilibria 1 items
Sustainable Plan 1 items
TGVAR 1 items
Tax extension 1 items
Tax on capital 1 items
Tax policy 1 items
Tax progressivity 1 items
Tax reform 1 items
Tax treaties 1 items
Temporary tax 1 items
Time consistency 1 items
Tobin effect 1 items
Transfer multiplier 1 items
Transfers 1 items
Transition dynamics 1 items
Transition path 1 items
U.S. Federal Tax Code 1 items
Uncertainty shocks 1 items
Unemployment risk 1 items
Uniform taxation 1 items
User cost of capital 1 items
VAT 1 items
Vocational Criteria 1 items
Volcker-Ravitch state fiscal crisis taskforce 1 items
Wages 1 items
Wealth inequality 1 items
Wealth taxation 1 items
Welfare evaluation 1 items
World Bank 1 items
accelerated depreciation 1 items
accuracy 1 items
aggregate productivity 1 items
approximations 1 items
asymmetric rules 1 items
balance 1 items
balanced budget 1 items
balances 1 items
bank capital 1 items
bank lending 1 items
bank liquidity 1 items
blockchains 1 items
bond risk premiums 1 items
budget 1 items
budget transparency 1 items
business cycle 1 items
capacity utilization 1 items
capital accumulation 1 items
capital income taxation 1 items
cash transfers 1 items
clustering 1 items
conditional Value-at-Risk 1 items
consumers 1 items
consumption expenditures 1 items
consumption front-loading 1 items
consumption-inflation correlation 1 items
coordination 1 items
covid19 1 items
crude oil 1 items
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