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Discussion Paper
Why Cash Transfers Are Good Policy in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Braun, R. Anton; Ikeda, Daisuke (2020-05-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an exceptionally large and negative impact on economic activity around the world. We show that cash transfers can be a useful policy tool during a pandemic. Cash transfers mitigate consumption inequality induced by the pandemic and provide incentives to individuals who are most negatively affected by lockdown policies to adhere to them.
Policy Hub* , Paper 2020-4

Discussion Paper
Model Uncertainty and Policy Design
Karantounias, Anastasios G. (2020-12-22)
This article illustrates the main challenges and forces that emerge in optimal policy design when there are doubts about the probability model of uncertainty. Model doubts can stem from either the side of the public or the side of the policymaker, and they can give rise to cautious probabilistic assessments. A basic idea that surfaces in setups with model uncertainty is the management of the public's pessimistic expectations by the policymaker. The article also presents several implications of this idea.
Policy Hub* , Paper 2020-17

Discussion Paper
Marketization of Home Production and Gender Gaps in Working Hours
Ngai, L. Rachel; Fang, Lei; Duval-Hernandez, Robert (2021-06-30)
Gender gaps in working hours vary widely across member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This article summarizes the key results from Duval-Hernández, Fang, and Ngai (2021), who study the source of cross-country differences and what kind of policies can reduce the gap in working hours between women and men.
Policy Hub* , Paper 2021-07

Journal Article
Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation
Braun, R. Anton (2022-10-06)
Prior to the COVID pandemic, industrialized countries experienced a sustained episode of low inflation, low real interest rates, and low per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As the logistical and other disruptions created by the COVID pandemic fade, will industrialized economies once again face downward pressure on prices, real interest rates, and output growth? We present evidence that the aging of the population was depressing the inflation rate, as well as real interest rates and GDP growth, prior to the COVID pandemic. Aging is ongoing in industrialized countries, and it will ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 13

Journal Article
Model Uncertainty and Policy Design
Karantounias, Anastasios G. (2020-12-22)
This article illustrates the main challenges and forces that emerge in optimal policy design when there are doubts about the probability model of uncertainty. Model doubts can stem from either the side of the public or the side of the policymaker, and they can give rise to cautious probabilistic assessments. A basic idea that surfaces in setups with model uncertainty is the management of the public's pessimistic expectations by the policymaker. The article also presents several implications of this idea.
Policy Hub , Volume 2020 , Issue 17 , Pages 16

Journal Article
Why Cash Transfers Are Good Policy in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Braun, R. Anton; Ikeda, Daisuke (2020-05-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an exceptionally large and negative impact on economic activity around the world. We show that cash transfers can be a useful policy tool during the pandemic. Cash transfers mitigate consumption inequality induced by the pandemic and provide incentives to individuals who are most negatively affected by lockdown policies to adhere to them.
Policy Hub , Volume 2020 , Issue 4 , Pages 13

Journal Article
Marketization of Home Production and Gender Gaps in Working Hours
Ngai, L. Rachel; Fang, Lei; Duval-Hernandez, Robert (2021-06-30)
Gender gaps in working hours vary widely across member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This article summarizes the key results from Duval-Hernández, Fang, and Ngai (2021), who study the source of cross-country differences and what kind of policies can reduce the gap in working hours between women and men.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 7 , Pages 7

Working Paper
Taxes and Market Hours: The Role of Gender and Skill
Ngai, L. Rachel; Fang, Lei; Duval-Hernandez, Robert (2017-09-01)
Cross-country differences of market hours in 17 countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development are mainly due to the hours of women, especially low-skilled women. This paper develops a model to account for the gender-skill differences in market hours across countries. The model explains a substantial fraction of the differences in hours by taxes, which reduce market hours in favor of leisure and home production, and by subsidized care, which frees (mostly) women from home care in favor of their market hours. Low-skilled women are more responsive to policy ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2017-8

Working Paper
Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero
Waki, Yuichiro; Korber, Lena Mareen; Braun, R. Anton (2012)
Does fiscal policy have large and qualitatively different effects on the economy when the nominal interest rate is zero? An emerging consensus in the New Keynesian (NK) literature is that the answer to this question is yes. Evidence presented here suggests that the NK model's implications for fiscal policy at the zero bound may not be all that different from its implications for policy away from it. For a range of empirically relevant parameterizations, employment increases when the labor tax rate is cut and the government purchase multiplier is less than 1.05.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2012-05

Working Paper
Fiscal Austerity in Ambiguous Times
Ferrière, Axelle; Karantounias, Anastasios G. (2016-03-01)
This paper analyzes optimal fiscal policy with ambiguity aversion and endogenous government spending. We show that, without ambiguity, optimal surplus-to-output ratios are acyclical and that there is no rationale for either reduction or further accumulation of public debt. In contrast, ambiguity about the cycle can generate optimally policies that resemble "austerity" measures. Optimal policy prescribes higher taxes in adverse times and front-loaded fiscal consolidations that lead to a balanced primary budget in the long-run. This is the case when interest rates are sufficiently responsive ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2016-6

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