Search Results
Working Paper
Insurance and Inequality with Persistent Private Information
Leukhina, Oksana; Bloedel, Alex; Krishna, R. Vijay
(2024-08-11)
We study the implications of optimal insurance provision for long-run welfare and inequality in economies with persistent private information. A principal insures an agent whose private type follows an ergodic, finite-state Markov chain. The optimal contract always induces immiseration: the agent’s consumption and utility decrease without bound. Under positive serial correlation, it also backloads high-powered incentives: the sensitivity of the agent’s utility with respect to his reports increases without bound. These results extend—and help elucidate the limits of—the hallmark ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-020
Working Paper
Capital Taxation with Heterogeneous Discounting and Collateralized Borrowing
Biljanovska, Nina; Vardoulakis, Alexandros
(2017-05-05)
We study optimal long-run capital taxation in a closed economy with heterogeneity in agents' time-discount factors where borrowing is allowed but restricted by a collateral constraint. Financial frictions distort intertemporal optimization margins and the tax system serves a dual role: first, it is used to finance government consumption; second, it serves to alleviate the distortions arising from the binding collateral constraint. The discrepancy between the private and the social discount factors pushes for a subsidy on capital, while the discrepancy introduced by the collateral constraint ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-053
Working Paper
Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia
Hills, Timothy S.; Nakata, Taisuke
(2014-11-20)
The presence of the lagged shadow policy rate in the interest rate feedback rule reduces the government spending multiplier nontrivially when the policy rate is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). In the economy with policy inertia, increased inflation and output due to higher government spending during a recession speed up the return of the policy rate to the steady state after the recession ends. This in turn dampens the expansionary effects of the government spending during the recession via expectations. In our baseline calibration, the output multiplier at the ZLB is 2.5 when the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2014-107
Working Paper
Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Gains and Pitfalls in a Model of Financial Intermediation
Kiley, Michael T.; Sim, Jae W.
(2015-09-04)
We estimate a quantitative general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and financial intermediation to examine the interaction of monetary and macroprudential stabilization policies. The estimation procedure uses credit spreads to help identify the role of financial shocks amenable to stabilization via monetary or macroprudential instruments. The estimated model implies that monetary policy should not respond strongly to the credit cycle and can only partially insulate the economy from the distortionary effects of financial frictions/shocks. A counter-cyclical macroprudential instrument ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2015-78
Working Paper
Collective Moral Hazard and the Interbank Market
Altinoglu, Levent; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
(2020-12-02)
The concentration of risk within financial system is considered to be a source of systemic instability. We propose a theory to explain the structure of the financial system and show how it alters the risk taking incentives of financial institutions. We build a model of portfolio choice and endogenous contracts in which the government optimally intervenes during crises. By issuing financial claims to other institutions, relatively risky institutions endogenously become large and interconnected. This structure enables institutions to share the risk of systemic crisis in a privately optimal way, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-098
Working Paper
The Effect of Local Economic Shocks on Local and National Elections
Herreño, Juan; Morales, Matias; Pedemonte, Mathieu
(2023-03-29)
We study the reaction of voters to shifts in local economic conditions. Using the departure from the gold standard of US trading partners in 1931 and the US in 1933, we exploit heterogeneity in export destinations, creating local differences in expenditure-switching in US counties by isolating the aggregate effects of the monetary shocks using time fixed effects. We find significant changes in local voting behavior in response to both shocks, one originating abroad, and another domestically. The response to both shocks have similar magnitude. We argue that voters punished and rewarded ...
Working Papers
, Paper 23-08
Journal Article
Strategic Review and Beyond: Rethinking Monetary Policy and Independence
Cochrane, John H.
(2020-05)
I survey monetary policy strategy, regulation, and central banks’ mandates and independence. I do not think strongly negative interest rates, vastly expanded quantitative easing, or extensive forward guidance can or should stimulate in the next recession.
Review
, Volume 102
, Issue 2
, Pages 99-119
Working Paper
Optimal Contracts, Aggregate Risk, and the Financial Accelerator
Fuerst, Timothy S.; Carlstrom, Charles T.; Paustian, Matthias
(2014-10-16)
This paper derives the optimal lending contract in the financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999), hereafter BGG. The optimal contract includes indexation to the aggregate return on capital, household consumption, and the return to internal funds. This triple indexation results in a dampening of fluctuations in leverage and the risk premium. Hence, compared with the contract originally imposed by BGG, the privately optimal contract implies essentially no financial accelerator.
Working Papers (Old Series)
, Paper 1420
Working Paper
A Quantitative Theory of Time-Consistent Unemployment Insurance
Pei, Yun; Xie, Zoe
(2016-11-01)
During recessions, the U.S. government substantially increases the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits through multiple extensions. This paper seeks to understand the incentives driving these increases. Because of the trade-off between insurance and job search incentives, the classic time-inconsistency problem arises. During recessions, the U.S. government substantially increases the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits through multiple extensions. This paper seeks to understand the incentives driving these extensions. Because of the trade-off between insurance and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2016-11
Working Paper
Fiscal Dominance
Martin, Fernando M.
(2020-10-29)
Who prevails when fiscal and monetary authorities disagree about the value of public expenditure and how much to discount the future? When the fiscal authority sets debt as its main policy instrument it achieves fiscal dominance, rendering the preferences of the central bank, and thus its independence, irrelevant. When the central bank sets the nominal interest rate it renders fiscal impatience (its debt bias) irrelevant, but still faces its expenditure bias. I find that the expenditure bias is about an order of magnitude more severe than the debt bias and has a major impact on welfare ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-040
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