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On the Efficiency of Competitive Equilibria with Pandemics
Chari, V. V.; Kirpalani, Rishabh; Perez, Luis (2023-04-05)
The epidemiological literature suggests that virus transmission occurs only when individuals are in relatively close contact. We show that if society can control the extent to which economic agents are exposed to the virus and agents can commit to contracts, virus externalities are local, and competitive equilibria are efficient. The Second Welfare Theorem also holds. These results still apply when infection status is imperfectly observed and when agents are privately informed about their infection status. If society cannot control virus exposure, then virus externalities are global and ...
Staff Report , Paper 644

Working Paper
State-Dependent Local Projections
Goncalves, Silvia; Herrera, Ana María; Kilian, Lutz; Pesavento, Elena (2023-04-19)
Do state-dependent local projections asymptotically recover the population responses of macroeconomic aggregates to structural shocks? The answer to this question depends on how the state of the economy is determined and on the magnitude of the shocks. When the state is exogenous, the local projection estimator recovers the population response regardless of the shock size. When the state depends on macroeconomic shocks, as is common in empirical work, local projections only recover the conditional response to an infinitesimal shock, but not the responses to larger shocks of interest in many ...
Working Papers , Paper 2302

Working Paper
Foreign competition and banking industry dynamics: an application to Mexico
Corbae, Dean; D'Erasmo, Pablo (2015-09-18)
The authors develop a simple general equilibrium framework to study the effects of global competition on banking industry dynamics and welfare. They apply the framework to the Mexican banking industry, which underwent a major structural change in the 1990s as a consequence of both government policy and external shocks. Given the high concentration in the Mexican banking industry, domestic and foreign banks act strategically in the authors? framework. After calibrating the model to Mexican data, the authors examine the welfare consequences of government policies that promote global ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-33

Working Paper
Considerations regarding the use of the discount window to support economic activity through a funding for lending program
Carlson, Mark A.; Zarutskie, Rebecca (2022-10)
This paper considers the use of the Federal Reserve's ability to provide loans to depository institutions under its discount window lending authority in support of achieving its monetary policy objectives through a funding for lending program. Broadly, a funding for lending program could be structured as one in which the Federal Reserve makes ample low-cost funding available to banks or a program in which the Federal Reserve only provides low-cost funding conditional on the banks meeting certain lending targets. We provide a general description of how a funding for lending program could be ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-070

Working Paper
Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program
Agarwal, Sumit; Ben-David, Itzhak; Seru, Amit; Piskorski, Tomasz; Chomsisengphet, Souphala; Amromin, Gene (2013-11-30)
The main rationale for policy intervention in debt renegotiation is to enhance such activity when foreclosures are perceived to be inefficiently high. We examine the ability of the government to influence debt renegotiation by empirically evaluating the effects of the 2009 Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that provided intermediaries (servicers) with sizeable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages. A difference-in-difference strategy that exploits variation in program eligibility criteria reveals that the program generated an overall increase in the intensity of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-27

Working Paper
Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing
Goernemann, Nils; Dias, Daniel A.; Hoek, Jasper; Jain, Anil K.; Ahmed, Shaghil; Correa, Ricardo; Wong, Anna; Liu, Edith X. (2019-10-18)
China?s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1260

Working Paper
Time Averaging Meets Labor Supplies of Heckman, Lochner, and Taber
Graves, Sebastian; Gregory, Victoria; Ljungqvist, Lars; Sargent, Thomas J. (2023-05-29)
We incorporate time-averaging into the canonical model of Heckman, Lochner, and Taber (1998) (HLT) to study retirement decisions, government policies, and their interaction with the aggregate labor supply elasticity. The HLT model forced all agents to retire at age 65, while our model allows them to choose career lengths. A benchmark social security system puts all of our workers at corner solutions of their career-length choice problems and lets our model reproduce HLT model outcomes. But alternative tax and social security arrangements dislodge some agents from those corners, bringing ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-012

Working Paper
What is Certain about Uncertainty?
Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo; Sarisoy, Cisil; Londono, Juan M.; Rogers, John H.; Datta, Deepa Dhume; Ferreira, Thiago Revil T.; Grishchenko, Olesya V.; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R.; Loria, Francesca; Ma, Sai; Rodriguez, Marius del Giudice; Zer, Ilknur (2020-07-16)
Researchers, policymakers, and market participants have become increasingly focused on the effects of uncertainty and risk on financial market and economic outcomes. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the many existing measures of risk, uncertainty, and volatility. It summarizes what these measures capture, how they are constructed, and their effects, paying particular attention to large uncertainty spikes, such as those appearing concurrently with the outbreak of COVID-19. The measures are divided into three types: (1) news-based, survey- based, and econometric; (2) asset market ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1294

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