Search Results
Working Paper
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization
The paper surveys the recent literature on the fiscal implications of central bank balance sheets, with a special focus on political economy issues. It then presents the results of simulations that describe the effects of different scenarios for the Federal Reserve's longer-run balance sheet on its earnings remittances to the U.S. Treasury and, more broadly, on the government's overall fiscal position. We find that reducing longer-run reserve balances from $2.3 trillion (roughly the current amount) to $1 trillion reduces the likelihood of posting a quarterly net loss in the future from 30 ...
Working Paper
Recreating Banking Networks under Decreasing Fixed Costs
Theory emphasizes the central role of the structure of networks in the behavior of financial systems and their response to policy. Real-world networks, however, are rarely directly observable: Banks? assets and liabilities are typically known, but not who is lending how much and to whom. We first show how to simulate realistic networks that are based on balance-sheet information by minimizing costs where there is a fixed cost to forming a link. Second, we also show how to do this for a model with fixed costs that are decreasing in the number of links. To approach the optimization problem, we ...
Conference Paper
Surprising similarities: recent monetary regimes of small economies
In contrast to earlier recessions, the monetary regimes of many small economies have not changed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This is due in part to the fact that many small economies continue to use hard exchange rate fixes, a reasonably durable regime. However, most of the new stability is due to countries that float with an inflation target. Though a few have left to join the Eurozone, no country has yet abandoned an inflation targeting regime under duress. Inflation targeting now represents a serious alternative to a hard exchange rate fix for small economies seeking ...
Working Paper
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization
The paper surveys the recent literature on the fiscal implications of central bank balance sheets, with a special focus on political economy issues. It then presents the results of simulations that describe the effects of different scenarios for the Federal Reserve's longer-run balance sheet on its earnings remittances to the U.S. Treasury and, more broadly, on the government's overall fiscal position. We find that reducing longer-run reserve balances from $2.3 trillion (roughly the current amount) to $1 trillion reduces the likelihood of posting a quarterly net loss in the future from 30 ...
Newsletter
The Role of Primary Dealers in Mitigating Liquidity Risk at U.S. Central Counterparties
In this article, we examine the role of primary dealers as clearing members at U.S. central counterparties (CCPs) and their importance in liquidity risk management at those CCPs. We find that primary dealers are key contributors to concentration in central clearing—they make up a significant portion of clearing members and an even larger portion of activity cleared by U.S. CCPs. Second, we find that primary dealers are a major source of interconnectedness across U.S. CCPs. Further, we estimate that the bulk of clearing activity in the U.S. is conducted by the primary dealers that are also ...
Working Paper
The Federal Reserve’s Evolving Monetary Policy Implementation Framework: 1914-1923
The Federal Reserve has relied upon a number of different monetary policy implementation frameworks throughout its history. This paper describes the original implementation framework that evolved between 1914 and 1923 in response to new policy objectives and changing market conditions.
Journal Article
What Happens When the Minimum Wage Rises? It Depends on Monetary Policy
Andrew Glover and José Mustre-del-Río examine how monetary policy may amplify or dampen the response of employment and inflation to an increase in the minimum wage. Their model-based analysis suggests a minimum wage increase has expansionary effects on the economy if the central bank is relatively unresponsive to current inflation, and contractionary effects if the central bank responds more aggressively (more than one-for-one) to current inflation. More generally, their framework suggests that if an increase in the minimum wage engenders contractionary effects, the central bank can ...
Journal Article
Addressing Traditional Credit Scores as a Barrier to Accessing Affordable Credit
Affordable credit enables consumers to better manage their finances, cope with unexpected emergencies, and pursue opportunities such as entrepreneurship or higher education. However, many consumers face difficulties obtaining the credit they need. A major impediment is lenders’ reliance on traditional credit scores to assess consumers’ creditworthiness. These credit scores affect not only loan approval decisions but also the interest rates consumers pay on their loans. While credit scores are intended to help lenders make informed decisions about consumers’ risk of default, they do not ...
Journal Article
Blockchain: What It Is, What It Does, and Why You Probably Don’t Need One
All record-keeping systems (which include monetary systems) must contend with trust issues and methods of organizing historical information.
Journal Article
Payment Systems and Privacy
Privacy in payments is desired not just for illegal transactions, but also for protection from malfeasance or negligence by counterparties or by the payments system provider itself. Proposals to abolish cash take inadequate account of these legitimate demands for privacy. While central banks can play a useful role in setting standards for payments privacy, they are unlikely to have a comparative advantage at providing privacy. Therefore the replacement of cash by central bank electronic money is likely to spur demand for alternative means of payments to solve specific privacy problems.