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Journal Article
The Term Structure of the Excess Bond Premium: Measures and Implications
Wei, Bin; Zakrajšek, Egon; Gilchrist, Simon; Yue, Vivian Z. (2021-09-24)
In this article, we construct daily aggregate as well as short-, medium-, and long-term "excess bond premium" (EBP) measures using a widely available corporate bond database (known as "TRACE"). The novel EBP measures we construct provide an important gauge of strains in the financial sector at different horizons. We find that the short-term EBP measure increased more dramatically at the peaks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2007–09 global financial crisis, but the pattern was reversed around the interest rate liftoff at the end of 2015.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 12

Journal Article
How Many Rate Hikes Does Quantitative Tightening Equal?
Wei, Bin (2022-07-14)
In this article, I examine the question of how to quantify the equivalence between interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening (QT). Using a simple "preferred habit" model I estimate that a $2.2 trillion passive roll-off of nominal Treasury securities from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet over three years is equivalent to an increase of 29 basis points in the current federal funds rate at normal times, but 74 basis points during turbulent periods.
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 11

Journal Article
The Offshore Dollar and US Policy
McCauley, Robert N. (2024-05-15)
Dollar borrowing outside the United States has over generations grown to be very large, with US policy providing some inducement and, in critical episodes, support. But in lending dollars through open-ended central bank swaps in 2008 and 2020, the Fed broke new ground as international lender of last resort. By countering dollar runs on non-US banks, the Fed supplied the global public good of financial stability. In addition, it restored domestic US monetary transmission. In 2020 the Fed's last-resort buying of domestic corporate bonds also did double duty, stabilizing the global dollar bond ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2024 , Issue 2 , Pages 40

Journal Article
How Much Do Guarantees and Bailouts Cost the Government?
Lucas, Deborah (2024-05-16)
Governments in advanced economies absorb a large and growing share of aggregate credit risk. That exposure arises from explicit and implicit contingent liabilities such as the ones that culminated in bailouts during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and from loan guarantees extended during the Covid-19 pandemic. Despite the growth of credit policy as a crisis response tool and substitute for traditional fiscal assistance, governments continue to underreport the associated costs and risks. More comprehensive and timely cost estimates, produced using a fair value framework, would increase ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2024 , Issue 3 , Pages 29

Journal Article
Analyzing the Efficacy of the Fed's Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility
Wei, Bin; Zakrajšek, Egon; Gilchrist, Simon; Yue, Vivian Z. (2024-08-06)
This article analyzes the effectiveness of the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) in stabilizing the US corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic. The SMCCF announcements in March and April 2020 significantly reduced credit spreads across different bond maturities, restoring a more typical upward-sloping yield curve. The Federal Reserve's bond purchases, though relatively small in scale, notably decreased credit spreads for eligible bonds compared to ineligible ones. The study's model suggests that market dynamics, including a rush to sell short-term safe bonds and ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2024 , Issue 5 , Pages 10

Working Paper
Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis
Schoenle, Raphael; Zakrajšek, Egon; Sim, Jae W.; Gilchrist, Simon (2015-11-01)
Firms with limited internal liquidity significantly increased prices in 2008, while their liquidity unconstrained counterparts slashed prices. Differences in the firms' price-setting behavior were concentrated in sectors likely characterized by customer markets. The authors develop a model in which firms face financial frictions while setting prices in a customer-markets setting. Financial distortions create an incentive for firms to raise prices in response to adverse demand or financial shocks. These results reflect the firms' reaction to preserve internal liquidity and avoid accessing ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-4

Working Paper
Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks
Schneider, Andrés; Minoiu, Camelia; Wei, Min (2025-07-01)
We show that the slope of the yield curve affects bank lending and economic activity through an "expected bank profitability channel." Using detailed banking data and term premium shocks identified via instrumental variables or event studies, we show that a steeper yield curve—when driven by higher term premiums rather than higher expected short rates—increases bank profits and loan supply. Intuitively, a higher term premium raises the expected returns from maturity transformation—a core banking activity—thereby incentivizing bank lending. This effect is more pronounced for banks with ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-5

Working Paper
Firm-Level Input Price Changes and Their Effects: A Deep Learning Approach
Mitra, Indrajit; Chava, Sudheer; Du, Wendi; Zeng, Linghang; Shah, Agam (2025-08-19)
We develop firm-level measures of input and output price changes using textual analysis of earnings calls. We establish five facts: (1) Input prices increase (decrease) at the median firm once every seven (30) months. (2) Input price changes contain an equal blend of aggregate and firm-specific components. (3) A firm's stock price experiences a –1.15 percent return when our input price change measure is in the top tercile of price increases. (4) Our input price change measure predicts future changes in the cost of goods sold. (5) Firms pass through input price changes to output prices in ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-7

Working Paper
Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach
Zha, Tao; Chen, Kaiji (2015-08-01)
We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy. Second, we use the unique micro-banking data to identify and support the model's key mechanism. Third, we find that the output effect of credit supply shocks is not only economically and statistically significant but also consistent with the vector autogression evidence. Our mode estimation indicates ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2015-8

Working Paper
Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy
Yu, Yang; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Zanetti, Francesco; Mandelman, Federico S. (2019-05-01)
We develop a quantitative business cycle model with search complementarities in the inter-firm matching process that entails a multiplicity of equilibria. An active equilibrium with strong joint venture formation, large output, and low unemployment coexists with a passive equilibrium with low joint venture formation, low output, and high unemployment. {{p}} Changes in fundamentals move the system between the two equilibria, generating large and persistent business cycle fluctuations. The volatility of shocks is important for the selection and duration of each equilibrium. Sufficiently adverse ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-9

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