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Working Paper
Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty : A US and Euro Area Comparison
Grishchenko, Olesya V.; Mouabbi, Sarah; Renne, Jean-Paul (2017-10-03)
We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the US, while mild de-anchoring occurred in the euro-area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-102

Report
U.S. consumers' holdings and use of $100 bills
Schuh, Scott; Greene, Claire (2014-11-25)
Conventional wisdom asserts that $100 bills are often associated with crime and foreign cash holdings, leading some commentators to call for their elimination; in light of this proposal, it is useful to examine the legal, domestic use of cash. This report uses new data from the 2012 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (DCPC) to evaluate consumer use of $100 bills as a means of payment.
Research Data Report , Paper 14-3

Working Paper
Consumer Payment Behavior by Income and Demographics
Greene, Claire; Perry, Julian; Stavins, Joanna (2024-07-01)
Despite the introduction of an array of innovations and new payment options for consumers over the last decade, income and demographics remain significant predictors of payment behavior. Using data from a 2023 consumer payments diary, we find that income, age, and education are significant predictors of which payment instruments consumers adopt and use. These associations hold not only for traditional payment instruments—cards and paper—but also for innovations such as mobile apps; buy now, pay later (BNPL); and cryptocurrency. In 2023, less educated consumers were significantly less ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-8

Working Paper
Welfare costs of inflation and the circulation of U. S. currency abroad
Zaghini, Andrea; Calza, Alessandro (2011)
Empirical studies of the "shoe-leather" costs of inflation are typically computed using M1 as a measure of money. Yet, official data on M1 includes all currency issued, regardless of the country of residence of the holder. Using monetary data adjusted for U.S. dollars abroad, we show that the failure to control for currency held by nonresidents may lead to significantly overestimating the shoe-leather costs for the domestic economy. In particular, our estimates of shoe-leather costs are minimized for a positive but moderate value of the inflation rate, thereby justifying a deviation from ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 78

Working Paper
Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded
Gao, Han; Kulish, Mariano; Nicolini, Juan Pablo (2020-12-15)
In this paper, we review the relationship between inflation rates, nominal interest rates, and rates of growth of monetary aggregates for a large group of OECD countries. We conclude that the low-frequency behavior of these series maintains a close relationship, as predicted by standard quantity theory models. In an estimated model, we show those relationships to be relatively invariant to alternative frictions that can deliver very different high-frequency dynamics. We argue that these relationships are useful for policy design aimed at controlling inflation.
Working Papers , Paper 774

Working Paper
The efficiency of private e-money-like systems: the U.S. experience with national bank notes
Weber, Warren E. (2015-03-01)
Beginning in 1864, in the United States notes of national banks were the predominant medium of exchange. Each national bank issued its own notes. E-money shares many of the characteristics of these bank notes. This paper describes some lessons relevant to e money from the U.S. experience with national bank notes. It examines historical evidence on how well the bank notes?a privately issued currency system with multiple issuers?functioned with respect to ease of transacting, counterfeiting, safety, overissuance, and par exchange (a uniform currency). It finds that bank notes made transacting ...
FRB Atlanta CenFIS Working Paper , Paper 15-2

Journal Article
Microfoundations of Money: Why They Matter
Waller, Christopher J. (2015)
What is the value of having microfoundations for monetary exchange in a macro model? In this article, the author attempts to answer this question by listing what he considers the major accomplishments of the field. He argues that the evidence overwhelmingly shows that microfoundations matter for many questions of first-order importance in macroeconomics.
Review , Volume 97 , Issue 4 , Pages 289-301

Working Paper
On the Stability of Money Demand
Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Lucas, Robert E. (2015-02-02)
We show that regulatory changes that occurred in the banking sector in the early eighties, which considerably weakened Regulation Q, can explain the apparent instability of money demand during the same period. We evaluate the effects of the regulatory changes using a model that goes beyond aggregates as M1 and treats currency and different deposit types as alternative means of payments. We use the model to construct a new monetary aggregate that performs remarkably well for the entire period 1915-2012.
Working Papers , Paper 718

Working Paper
What Drives U.S. Treasury Re-use?
Infante, Sebastian; Saravay, Zack (2021-08-24)
We study what drives the re-use of U.S. Treasury securities in the financial system. Using confidential supervisory data, we estimate the degree of collateral re-use at the dealer level through their collateral multiplier : the ratio between a dealer's total secured funding and their outright holdings financed through secured funding. We find that Treasury re-use increases as the supply of available securities decreases, especially when supply declines due to Federal Reserve asset purchases. We also find that non-U.S. dealers' re-use increases when profits from intermediating cash are high, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-103r1

Working Paper
Time-Varying Money Demand and Real Balance Effects
Qureshi, Irfan; Benchimol, Jonathan (2019-06-11)
This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics. By assuming that households? money holdings and consumption preferences are not separable, we demonstrate that the interest-elasticity of demand for money is a function of the households? preference to hold real balances, the extent to which these preferences are not separable in consumption and real balances, and trend inflation. An empirical study of U.S. data revealed that there was a gradual fall in the interest-elasticity of money demand of approximately one-third during the 1970s due to high ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 364

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