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Journal Article
Geographic Inequality in Food Inflation
Kim, Seula; Navarrete, Michael (2026-02-02)
Using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data, we study how food inflation varies across regions with different income levels and the role of retailer market structure. From 2006 to 2020, for the average consumer, food prices—as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for food and beverages—rose by by about 1.8 percent per year. However, this aggregate increase masked substantial spatial heterogeneity. Poorer metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) experienced annualized food inflation that was half a percentage point higher than that of richer ones—amounting to a ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2026 , Issue 1 , Pages 7

Journal Article
The Price of Delay: Supply Disruptions, Product Availability, and Strategic Pricing during the Pandemic
Fuchs, Simon; Baslandze, Salomé (2026-06-25)
During 2020–23, firms did not just face higher costs but faced an unusually tight constraint on product availability. Imports often did not arrive when expected, and port congestion and vessel delays made replenishment unusually uncertain. In Baslandze and Fuchs (2026), we study how these disruptions showed up in consumer prices using newly linked micro data that match shipment-level bills of lading to high-frequency consumer transaction prices. The evidence points to sizable pass-through from delivery shortfalls to prices, above and beyond the standard pass-through of costs. Prices also ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2026 , Issue 4 , Pages 16

Journal Article
The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear
Higgins, Patrick C. (2021-09-09)
The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 11

Journal Article
Is the Last Mile More Arduous?
Rapach, David E. (2024-01-16)
US inflation surged starting in spring 2021, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reaching a 40-year high of 9 percent in mid-2022. Together with improving supply-chain conditions, policy tightening by the Fed decreased inflation to within 1 to 2 percentage points of its 2 percent target by late 2023 without a significant increase in unemployment. However, concerns have been raised that the last mile of disinflation to reduce inflation consistently to its 2 percent target will be more arduous than the previous miles. Close examination of such concerns indicates that they do not receive ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2024 , Issue 1

Journal Article
Tariffs and Consumer Prices: Insights from Newly Matched Consumption-Trade Micro Data
Pringle, KC; Fuchs, Simon; Sparks, Michael; Baslandze, Salomé (2025-02-28)
We evaluate the impact of various US tariff scenarios on consumer prices using novel micro-level data linking imports to consumer expenditures. Results indicate that an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10 percent tariff on other countries could raise consumer prices on everyday retail purchases, such as food and beverage items and general merchandise, covering about a quarter of the total consumption basket, by 0.81 percent to 1.63 percent, assuming half to full pass-through. Notably, tariffs on Canada and Mexico ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2025 , Issue 1 , Pages 17

Working Paper
Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis
Schoenle, Raphael; Zakrajšek, Egon; Sim, Jae W.; Gilchrist, Simon (2015-11-01)
Firms with limited internal liquidity significantly increased prices in 2008, while their liquidity unconstrained counterparts slashed prices. Differences in the firms' price-setting behavior were concentrated in sectors likely characterized by customer markets. The authors develop a model in which firms face financial frictions while setting prices in a customer-markets setting. Financial distortions create an incentive for firms to raise prices in response to adverse demand or financial shocks. These results reflect the firms' reaction to preserve internal liquidity and avoid accessing ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-4

Working Paper
The Price of Delay: Supply Chain Disruptions and Pricing Dynamics
Fuchs, Simon; Baslandze, Salomé (2025-09-24)
We study the role of supply chain disruptions in shaping consumer prices, focusing on both firms' own import shocks and strategic responses to competitors' disruptions. Using a newly constructed microlevel dataset that links transaction-level US import data from bills of lading with high-frequency consumer prices and sales from a consumer panel, we develop a novel approach to estimate the price effects of cost shocks and product availability. Motivated by a model of delivery delays, cost shocks, and firm pricing, we implement a shift-share identification strategy based on delivery shortfalls, ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-8

Working Paper
Assessing the Role of Global Demand and Supply Shocks in the Recent US Inflation Experience Using a Cross-Country Panel Dataset of Professional Forecasts
Higgins, Patrick C. (2025-10-06)
Although there have been a range of studies investigating the role and importance of global supply and demand shocks in US inflation developments during and since the pandemic, this study uses a heretofore unused dataset for this purpose: a quarterly panel of professional forecasts from Consensus Economics. We use real-time data with daily vintage snapshots since 2005 from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors FAME database to disentangle forecast errors from revisions and to exploit the monthly frequency and partial availability of CPI inflation and industrial production. Our measures of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-10

Working Paper
Geospatial Heterogeneity in Inflation: A Market Concentration Story
Kim, Seula; Navarrete, Michael (2025-11-06)
We study how inflation varies across regions with different income levels and the role of retailer market structure. Using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner and Business Dynamics Statistics data, we document new stylized facts of spatial heterogeneity in food inflation and retailer market structure. From 2006 to 2020, poorer metropolitan statistical areas experienced annualized food inflation that was 0.46 percentage points higher than that of richer ones—amounting to a cumulative difference of 8.8 percentage points over the period. Poorer areas also had fewer goods, fewer retailers, and higher ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-15

Working Paper
Attention-Dependent Monetary Transmission to Household Beliefs
Jeong, Jaemin; Yang, Choongryul; Ma, Eunseong (2026-07-14)
The expectations channel of monetary policy is state dependent because households endogenously adjust attention to macroeconomic conditions. We develop a behavioral framework in which attention trades off forecast accuracy against cognitive cost, so monetary policy operates through an expectations multiplier. Using the Michigan Survey, we proxy attentiveness from whether households’ reading of business conditions matches realized outcomes, measured before identified policy shocks arrive. Policy news moves inflation beliefs primarily among attentive households, especially those with greater ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-9

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