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Discussion Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Hyman, Benjamin (2025-03-05)
After a period of particularly high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years. Indeed, the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index has come down from a peak of 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. The New York Fed asked regional businesses about their own cost and price increases in February, as well as their expectations for future inflation. Service firms reported that business cost and selling price increases continued to moderate through 2024, while manufacturing firms ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250305

Working Paper
A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency
Paul, Pascal; Ulate, Mauricio; Wu, Jing Cynthia (2025-06-25)
We develop a quantitative New Keynesian DSGE model with monopolistic banks to study the macroeconomic effects of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Households benefit from an expansion of liquidity services and higher deposit rates as bank deposit market power is curtailed, while bank profitability and lending decline. We assess this trade-off for a wide range of economies that differ in their level of interest rates. We find substantial welfare gains from introducing a CBDC with an optimal rate that can be approximated by a simple rule of thumb: the maximum between 0% and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-11

Working Paper
Dynamic Identification Using System Projections and Instrumental Variables
Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel (2023-01-10)
We propose System Projections on Instrumental Variables (SP-IV) to estimate dynamic structural relationships using impulse responses obtained from local projections or vector autoregressions. SP-IV replaces lag sequences of instruments in traditional IV with lead sequences of endogenous variables. By allowing the inclusion of lagged variables as controls, SP-IV weakens exogeneity requirements and can improve efficiency and effective instrument strength relative to 2SLS. We provide inference procedures under strong and weak identification, and show that SP-IV outperforms conventional IV ...
Working Papers , Paper 2204

Working Paper
Price setting in online markets: does IT click?
Talavera, Oleksandr; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2015-01-01)
Using a unique dataset of daily U.S. and U.K. price listings and the associated number of clicks for precisely defined goods from a major shopping platform, this paper explores how prices are set in online markets, which have a number of special properties such as low search costs, low costs of monitoring competitors' prices, and low costs of nominal price adjustment. High-quality data are not only useful to estimate price rigidity and other properties of price adjustment in online commerce but also allow comparing the behavior of those properties with estimates available from ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-1

Working Paper
Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach
Vespignani, Joaquin L.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Ferrari, Davide (2019-12-20)
This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially informative quarterly macroeconomic variables for the 33 largest economies, overall accounting for more than 80% of the global GDP. To deal with the information in this large database, we apply a dynamic factor model based on a penalized maximum likelihood approach that allows us to shrink parameters to zero and to estimate sparse factor loadings. The estimated latent factors show ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 376

Working Paper
Market structure and exchange rate pass-through
Auer, Raphael; Schoenle, Raphael (2012)
In this paper, we examine the extent to which market structure and the way in which it affects pricing decisions of profit-maximizing firms can explain incomplete exchange rate pass-through. To this purpose, we evaluate how pass-through rates vary across trade partners and sectors depending on the mass and size distribution of firms affected by a particular exchange rate shock. In the first step of our analysis, we decompose bilateral exchange rate movements into broad US Dollar (USD) movements and trade-partner currency (TPC) movements. Using micro data on US import prices, we show that the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 130

Working Paper
Dynamic Identification Using System Projections on Instrumental Variables
Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel (2024-07-03)
We propose System Projections on Instrumental Variables (SP-IV) to estimate structural relationships using regressions of structural impulse responses obtained from local projections or vector autoregressions. Relative to IV with distributed lags of shocks as instruments, SP-IV imposes weaker exogeneity requirements and can improve efficiency and increase effective instrument strength relative to the typical 2SLS estimator. We describe inference under strong and weak identification. The SP-IV estimator outperforms other estimators of Phillips Curve parameters in simulations. We estimate the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2204

Discussion Paper
Black and White Differences in the Labor Market Recovery from COVID-19
Dam, David; Gaur, Meghana; Karahan, Fatih; Pilossoph, Laura; Schirmer, Will (2021-02-09)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the various measures put in place to contain it caused a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions for many workers and plunged the nation into recession. The unemployment rate increased dramatically during the COVID recession, rising from 3.5 percent in February to 14.8 percent in April, accompanied by an almost three percentage point decline in labor force participation. While the subsequent labor market recovery in the aggregate has exceeded even some of the most optimistic scenarios put forth soon after this dramatic rise, the recovery has been ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210209c

Report
Has monetary policy become less powerful?
Boivin, Jean; Giannoni, Marc (2001-03-01)
Recent vector autoregression (VAR) studies have shown that monetary policy shocks have had a reduced effect on the economy since the beginning of the 1980s. This paper investigates the causes of this change. First, we estimate an identified VAR over the pre- and post-1980 periods, and corroborate the existing results suggesting a stronger systematic response of monetary policy to the economy in the later period. Second, we present and estimate a fully specified model that replicates well the dynamic response of output, inflation, and the federal funds rate to monetary policy shocks in both ...
Staff Reports , Paper 144

Working Paper
A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-01-30)
Deciding to undertake a series of tightening actions present unique challenges for Federal Reserve policymakers. These challenges are both political and economic. Using a variety of economic and financial market metrics, this article examines how the economy and financial markets evolved in response to the five tightening episodes enacted by the FOMC since 1983. The primary aim is to compare the most-recent episode, from December 2015 to December 2018, with the previous four episodes. The findings in this article indicate that the current episode bears some resemblance to previous Fed ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-003

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