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Working Paper
Trading down and the business cycle
Rebelo, Sergio; Wong, Arlene; Jaimovich, Nir (2015-11-01)
The authors document two facts: First, during recessions consumers trade down in the quality of the goods and services they consume. Second, the production of low-quality goods is less labor intensive than that of high-quality goods. Therefore, when households trade down, labor demand falls, increasing the severity of recessions. The authors find that the trading-down phenomenon accounts for a substantial fraction of the fall in U.S. employment in the recent recession. They study two business cycle models that embed quality choice and find that the presence of quality choice magnifies the ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-5

Working Paper
A model of monetary policy shocks for financial crises and normal conditions
Smith, Andrew Lee; Valcarcel, Victor J.; Keating, John W.; Kelly, Logan J. (2014-10-01)
In late 2008, deteriorating economic conditions led the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate to near zero and inject massive liquidity into the financial system through novel facilities. The combination of conventional and unconventional measures complicates the challenging task of characterizing the effects of monetary policy. We develop a novel method of identifying these effects that maintains the classic assumptions that a central bank reacts to output and the price level contemporaneously and may only affect these variables with a lag. A New-Keynesian DSGE model augmented with ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 14-11

Report
Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation
di Giovanni, Julian; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Silva, Alvaro; Yildirim, Muhammed A. (2022-07-01)
We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on euro area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: (1) compositional effects, or the switch from services to goods consumption, are amplified through global input-output linkages, affecting both trade and inflation; (2) inflation can be higher under sector-specific labor shortages relative to a scenario with no such supply shocks; (3) foreign shocks and global supply chain bottlenecks played an ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1024

Journal Article
Do Credit Supply Shocks Constrain Employment Growth of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises?
Baslandze, Salomé; Minoiu, Camelia; Penciakova, Veronika; Willis, Jonathan L. (2023-09-25)
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) made outsized contributions to net employment growth during the pandemic recession and recovery. However, credit conditions have tightened significantly during the past year and might hinder growth for small firms going forward. Using data on bank lending to small businesses and employment growth, we estimate that a tightening in bank credit supply of 1 percentage point is associated with an 11 percent decline in SMEs' net job creation rate. This estimate indicates that a bank credit tightening about one-third the size of the tightening observed ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2023 , Issue 5

Working Paper
Global Inflation, Regional Factors
Sheremirov, Viacheslav; Stein, Hillary (2025-08-01)
This paper shows that global inflation dynamics have a sizable regional component. Using a balanced panel of 61 countries that starts in 1970, we document that while the global factor, defined as the dominant principal component, explains a large portion of inflation variation in advanced economies, a model with only one principal component is less successful for developing countries. By contrast, a hierarchical dynamic factor model, which includes a global (unconstrained) factor and regional (restricted) factors, performs substantially better for emerging market and developing economies. The ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-6

Working Paper
On the Wisdom of Crowds (of Economists)
Diebold, Francis X.; Mora, Aaron; Shin, Minchul (2026-03-09)
We study the properties of macroeconomic survey forecast response averages as the number of survey respondents grows. Such averages are “portfolios” of forecasts. We characterize the speed and pattern of the gains from diversification as a function of portfolio size (the number of survey respondents) in both (1) the key real-world data-based environment of the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters, and (2) the theoretical model-based environment of equicorrelated forecast errors. We proceed by proposing and comparing various direct and model-based “crowd size signature plots,” which ...
Working Papers , Paper 26-14

Working Paper
The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006
Lyons, Ronan; Shertzer, Allison; Gray, Rowena; Agorastos, David (2024-06-20)
We construct the first consistent market rent and home sales price series for American cities across the 20th century using millions of newspaper real estate listings. Our findings revise several stylized facts about U.S. housing markets. Real market rents did not fall during the 20th century for most cities. Instead, real rental price levels increased by about 20 percent from 1890 to 2006. There was also greater growth in real housing sales prices from 1965 to 1995 than is commonly understood. Using these series, we document several new facts about housing markets. The return to ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-12

Working Paper
Micro price dynamics during Japan's lost decades
Ueda, Kozo; Watanabe, Kota; Sudo, Nao (2013)
We study micro price dynamics and their macroeconomic implications using daily scanner data from 1988 to 2013. We provide five facts. First, posted prices in Japan are ten times as flexible as those in the U.S. scanner data. Second, regular prices are almost as flexible as those in the U.S. and Euro area. Third, the heterogeneity of frequency and size of price change across products is sizable and maintained throughout the sample period. Fourth, during Japan's lost decades, temporary sales have played an increasingly important role in households' consumption expenditure. Fifth, the frequency ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 159

Discussion Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Hyman, Benjamin (2025-03-05)
After a period of particularly high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years. Indeed, the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index has come down from a peak of 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. The New York Fed asked regional businesses about their own cost and price increases in February, as well as their expectations for future inflation. Service firms reported that business cost and selling price increases continued to moderate through 2024, while manufacturing firms ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250305

Working Paper
Redistributive Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies
Rothert, Jacek; Michaud, Amanda M. (2017-05-24)
Government expenditures are pro-cyclical in emerging markets and counter-cyclical in developed economies. We show this pattern is driven by differences in social transfers. Transfers are more counter-cyclical and comprise a larger portion of spending in developed economies compared to emerging. In contrast, government expenditures on goods and services are quite similar across the two. In a small open economy model, we find disparate social transfer policies can account for more than a half of the excess volatility of consumption relative to output in emerging economies. We analyze how ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1709

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