Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility
Caldara, Dario; Scotti, Chiara; Zhong, Molin (2021-08-19)
We study the joint conditional distribution of GDP growth and corporate credit spreads using a stochastic volatility VAR. Our estimates display significant cyclical co-movement in uncertainty (the volatility implied by the conditional distributions), and risk (the probability of tail events) between the two variables. We also find that the interaction between two shocks--a main business cycle shock as in Angeletos et al. (2020) and a main financial shock--is crucial to account for the variation in uncertainty and risk, especially around crises. Our results highlight the importance of using ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1326

Working Paper
A DSGE Model Including Trend Information and Regime Switching at the ZLB
Gelain, Paolo; Lopez, Pierlauro (2023-12-27)
This paper outlines the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland as part of the suite of models used for forecasting and policy analysis by Cleveland Fed researchers, which we have nicknamed CLEMENTINE (CLeveland Equilibrium ModEl iNcluding Trend INformation and the Effective lower bound). This document adopts a practitioner's guide approach, detailing the construction of the model and offering practical guidance on its use as a policy tool designed to support decision-making through forecasting exercises and policy counterfactuals.
Working Papers , Paper 23-35

Working Paper
Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks
Yung, Julieta; Grant, Everett (2019-04-12)
We develop a multi-sector DSGE model to calculate upstream and downstream industry exposure networks from U.S. input-output tables and test the relative importance of shocks from each direction by comparing these with estimated networks of firms? equity return responses to one another. The correlations between the upstream exposure and equity return networks are large and statistically significant, while the downstream exposure networks have lower ? but still positive ? correlations that are not statistically significant. These results suggest a low short-term elasticity of substitution ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 360

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2003 annual revision
Morin, Norman J.; Bayard, Kimberly (2004-01)
In late 2003, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its measures of industrial, capacity, and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to September 2003. The changes are generally small and principally affect data from 2000 to the present. ; Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, industrial output is now reported to have increased at a slower rate in 2000 and to have contracted a bit more slowly in 2001 than reported earlier. The changes to total industrial production in other years are slight. The revision still places the most recent peak in ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 90 , Issue Win

Working Paper
Are Supply Networks Efficiently Resilient?
Capponi, Agostino; Du, Chuan; Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2024-05-28)
We show that supply networks are inefficiently, and insufficiently, resilient. Upstream firms can expand their production capacity to hedge againstsupply and demand shocks. But the social benefits of such investments arenot internalized due to market power and market incompleteness. Upstreamfirms under-invest in capacity and resilience, passing-on the costs to downstreamfirms, and drive trade excessively towards the spot markets. There isa wedge between the market solution and a constrained optimal benchmark,which persists even without rare and large shocks. Policies designed to incentivize ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-031

Working Paper
The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity
Cette, Gilbert; Fernald, John G.; Mojon, Benoit (2016-03-28)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of productivity growth around the world. For the United States and Europe, we highlight that this slow pace began prior to the Great Recession. The timing thus suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. For the United States, at the frontier of knowledge, there was a burst of innovation and reallocation related to the production and use of information technology in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s. That burst ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-8

Working Paper
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
Inklaar, Robert; Fernald, John G. (2020-06-12)
In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-22

Working Paper
Misallocation and Credit Market Constraints: the Role of Long-Term Financing
Karabarbounis, Marios; Macnamara, Patrick (2019-01-16)
We measure aggregate productivity loss due to credit market constraints in a model with endogenous borrowing constraints, long-duration bonds, and costly equity payouts. Due to long-duration bonds, the model generates a realistic distribution of credit spreads. We structurally estimate our model using firm-level data on credit spreads from Thomson Reuters Bond Security Data and balance sheet data from Compustat. Credit market constraints increase aggregate productivity by 0.4% through their effect on the credit spread distribution. However, credit market constraints also interact with costly ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-1

Working Paper
The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy
Altinoglu, Levent (2018-05-04)
I show that inter-firm lending plays an important role in business cycle fluctuations. I first build a tractable network model of the economy in which trade in intermediate goods is financed by supplier credit. In the model, a financial shock to one firm affects its ability to make payments to its suppliers. The credit linkages between firms propagate financial shocks, amplifying their aggregate effects by about 30 percent. To calibrate the model, I construct a proxy of inter-industry credit flows from firm- and industry-level data. I then estimate aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-031

Working Paper
Firm Dynamics and SOE Transformation During China's Economic Reform
Jia, Chengcheng; Gu, Shijun (2021-10-19)
We study China’s state-owned enterprises (SOE) reform with a focus on the corporatization of SOEs. We first empirically document that small SOEs are more likely to exit or become privatized, whereas big SOEs are more likely to be corporatized while remaining under state ownership. We then build a heterogeneous-firm model featuring financial frictions, endogenous entry and exit, and optimal firm-type choices. Our calibrated model suggests that in the long run, the SOE reform increases the aggregate output by facilitating resource reallocation to the private sector. Along the transition, the ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-24

show more (89)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords