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Working Paper
The great housing boom of China
Wen, Yi; Chen, Kaiji (2015-11-01)
China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-3

Working Paper
Industrial Policy and Capital Misallocation in Exporting
Kabir, Poorya; Müller, Karsten; Matray, Adrien; Xu, Chenzi (2026-08-24)
Trade financing through export credit agencies is a key tool of modern industrial policy. We provide a theory to evaluate its welfare effects, and we study its causal impact on trade, firm investment, and capital misallocation by using the effective shutdown of the US export credit agency from 2015 to 2019 as a natural experiment. First, we show that the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has large causal effects: comparing industries exposed and unexposed to the shutdown, we find that exposed industries experience a product-level export reduction of approximately $4.49 for each $1 lost in EXIM ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-12

Working Paper
Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles
Miao, Jianjun; Wang, Pengfei; Zha, Tao (2014-08-01)
n the U.S. economy during the past 25 years, house prices exhibit fluctuations considerably larger than house rents, and these large fluctuations tend to move together with business cycles. We build a simple theoretical model to characterize these observations by showing the tight connection between price-rent fluctuation and the liquidity constraint faced by productive firms. After developing economic intuition for this result, we estimate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the empirical importance of the role the price-rent fluctuation plays in the business cycle. ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-15

Working Paper
Synergizing Ventures
Greenwood, Jeremy; Dinlersoz, Emin M.; Akcigit, Ufuk; Penciakova, Veronika (2019-09-01)
Venture capital (VC) and growth are examined both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, VC-backed startups have higher early growth rates and initial patent quality than non-VC-backed ones. VC backing increases a startup's likelihood of reaching the right tails of the firm size and innovation distributions. Furthermore, outcomes are better for startups matched with more experienced venture capitalists. An endogenous growth model, where venture capitalists provide both expertise and financing for business startups, is constructed to match these facts. The presence of venture capital, the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-17

Working Paper
Discount Shock, Price-Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle
Miao, Jianjun; Wang, Pengfei; Zha, Tao (2020-05-21)
The price-rent ratio in commercial real estate is highly volatile, and its variation comoves with the business cycle. To account for these two facts, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that explicitly introduces a rental market and incorporates the liquidity constraint on an individual firm's production as a key ingredient. Our estimation identifies the discount shock as the most important factor in driving price-rent dynamics and linking the dynamics in the real estate market to those in the real economy. We illustrate the importance of the liquidity premium and endogenous total ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-7

Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Meyer, Brent; Mizen, Paul; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nick; Thwaites, Gregory; Altig, David E.; Bunn, Philip; Mihaylov, Emil; Chen, Scarlet; Baker, Scott Brent; Renault, Thomas; Parker, Nicholas B.; Davis, Steven J.; Smietanka, Pawel (2020-07-10)
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and disagreement among professional forecasters about future gross domestic product growth. Three results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-9

Working Paper
The Profitability Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission
Mitra, Indrajit; Hsu, Alex; Zeng, Linghang (2023-06-20)
We provide firm-level evidence that Federal Open Market Committee announcements have real effects by changing expectations of firm profitability. We use an existing decomposition of a monetary policy shock into a central bank information component (CBI) and a conventional monetary component (MP). We find (1) firms with a higher value of capital asset pricing model (CAPM) beta have a higher investment rate sensitivity to the CBI component; no similar heterogeneity in investment response is observed for the MP component. We also find (2) the heterogeneity in investment sensitivity is due to ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2023-6

Working Paper
The Fed Information Effect and Firm-Level Investment: Evidence and Theory
Mitra, Indrajit; Hsu, Alex; Xu, Yu; Zeng, Linghang (2024-03)
We present evidence that the Fed's private information about economic conditions revealed through Federal Open Market Committee announcements affect firm investment. We use firm-level investment data and analyst forecasts of firm fundamentals to document three facts. First, the investment rate sensitivity to Fed information is greater for more cyclical firms. Second, revisions in analyst forecasts of firm fundamentals are greater for more cyclical firms. Third, the investment response is consistent with changes in firm profitability following Fed announcements. We propose a HANK model to ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2023-6a

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